Electionwatch

It's on, it's off, it's on, it's off.... Latest reports have it that Martin has given the go for a spring election. Martin-friendly reporter Heather Scoffield (Budget brings spring election to the lips of Liberals):

The Liberal government's internal opinion surveys in the wake of the federal budget have given it new confidence to call an election this spring, Ottawa sources say. Liberals had hoped the budget would focus public attention on the agenda of Prime Minister Paul Martin's government, as set forth in the Speech from the Throne last month. They also wanted the budget to secure the government's reputation as that of a reliable fiscal manager with a social conscience. Response from the public so far has shown Liberal insiders that the budget has gone over much as they had hoped. "We like where we are at right now," said a Liberal official, adding that "the odds" now favour a spring election. Dates now being vetted include May 31 and June 21.

Martin-friendly reporter Susan Delacourt (Coming soon: The Paul Martin show):

Prime Minister Paul Martin is going prime time next week with the Liberals rolling out a TV ad campaign as part of the growing momentum toward an election in late May or early June. The television ads are said to play heavily on Martin's personal popularity, featuring him talking to ordinary Canadians about the major issues of the day — including the sponsorship scandal, although in general terms. Martin's increased TV presence is further evidence that the Liberals are determined to barrel right through the scandal's political tumult, betting that the new Prime Minister can deliver the governing party bruised, but still in power, to renewed confidence with Canadians.

The thinking seems to be to come in after the Commons public accounts committee delivers its interim report in April (probably inconclusive, with one or two minority reports to muddy the water further), but before the fall, when the judicial inquiry begins taking evidence. Hence Martin can use the interim report to claim that Canadians have been given "as much information as possible," consistent with his oft-stated need for a "mandate." The Delacourt Line: May 31, June 7, or June 14. Then there's this weird bit of numerology:

The two June dates have symbolic, even sentimental significance that could argue for — or against — Martin choosing them. June 7 is the 75th birthday of John Turner, who won the Liberal leadership and called a snap election in 1984 only to go down to resounding defeat. June 14 is the birthdate of David Herle, one of Martin's closest confidants and co-chair of the Liberal election team. Many of Martin's supporters, including Herle, were Turner loyalists and do not want to see history repeat itself. So May 31 stands as the most likely date.

Wha? We're deciding when to go to the people based on lucky numbers and birthdays?