Thirty-five per cent

Forget all about a spring election. Tonight's CTV-Ipsos Reid poll is about the worst news the Liberals could have anticipated -- though their own polling would already have told them much the same. It isn't just the overall numbers -- 35% Liberal, 28% Conservative, 18% NDP. It's when you dig into the results that the full horror of it emerges. On a net favourable-unfavourable basis, for example, the Grits come out minus 23. That's just as cold as it sounds: 40% of the public have a negative view of the party, compared to just 17% who have a positive view. The Conservatives are at plus 16 per cent. If you compare party leaders, you get the same result. Paul Martin, whose personal popularity was going to carry "Team Martin" to victory even as the Liberal brand grew toxic, is at plus 1% -- to 9% for that cold fish, Stephen Harper. Regionally, the Liberals are down to 41% in Ontario, just 9 points ahead of the Conservatives. In Quebec, they trail the Bloc by 15 points. In fact, outside Quebec, where the Liberals still outpoll the Conservatives three to one, the Liberal lead is now just three percentage points. That story in the Globe over the weekend was not just spin. Even so, Ipsos projects the Liberals would win 144 to 148 seats based on these numbers, enough for a minority government. But we're a long way from the 200-plus seats most of the gallery were predicting. And things could still get worse: Twice as many people now say they will vote for the party as have a favourable view of it. That tells you there's still a certain amount of parking going on.