Libs 27, Tories 25

New survey puts Liberals and Tories in virtual dead heat in support

A Conservative lead in popular support seems to have evaporated this week, suggests a poll conducted after Paul Martin's national TV address and while the Liberal-NDP budget pact was being worked out. The survey by GPC Research had the two parties in a virtual dead heat: 27 per cent of respondents said they would vote Liberal and 25 per cent said they would opt for the Conservatives if an election were held."

There's apparently a CTV poll coming that shows much the same. UPDATE: Here's that CTV poll: 30-28, with the NDP at 18 or perhaps 21: the CTV website seems confused on the matter. Greens, interestingly, at 10, echoing the GPC poll. Libs ahead 38-30 in Ontario, Bloc leads in Quebec by -- oh, what does it matter? The real story: By a two-to-one margin, the public bought Martin's "wait for Gomery" line. They're even split fifty-fifty on the Layton budget deal. But look, folks, I'd drop the "sheeple" bit, if I were you. I get a strong feeling of deja vu, reading some of the comments: it's the same sort of stuff you read on Democratic boards in the States. Blaming the people is the consolation of losers. If you haven't yet persuaded them to see the world the way you do, pick up your socks. Hone your message. Or better yet, have one. EATINGCROWDATE: Paul Wells was right ("Martin wins the big play ... I will be amazed if the next three days' polls don't show overwhelming support") and I was wrong ("I think this disastrously misjudged performance will be seen as Mr. Martin’s flight to Varennes"). Paul Wells was right, and I was wrong. Paul Wells was right, and I was wrong... OR MAYBE I WASN"T: Alert reader YYC has Ipsos numbers showing a decline in wait-for-Gomery sentiment after the speech. Did I wear a hair-shirt for nothing?