35-34

While it's best not to get too excited about a single poll, what's more significant in those SES Research numbers are the leadership ratings. At the start, and for the first week of the campaign, Harper's Leadership Index Score (adding together voter preferences with respect to trustworthiness, competence and vision for Canada) hovered somewhere around 50 per cent, while Martin's was in excess of 80%. By the three-week mark, they were roughly tied, and in the latest survey Harper has inched ahead, 65-62. From a thirty-point gap to parity, in just two weeks. And on the issue that was supposed to be the Liberals' ace in the hole: leadership. That's the story of the campaign. SEE ALSO: the "Best Prime Minister" numbers. Through the first week, Martin enjoyed a 10-point lead, roughly 30-20. Harper has now closed to within three points. Well, be fair: Martin helped. POSTSCRIPT: Political Staples thinks the latest UBC Election Stock Market numbers -- at time of writing (4:44 EST) it has the two main parties in a virtual tie -- dispels "the notion that this market is the most efficient vehicle since it has reacted to the SES poll. What I mean is that it is clearly following not leading." But the SES polls have consistently shown the largest leads for the Grits, as large as 10 points or more, while the other pollsters (Ipos, Decima, Strategic Counsel etc) typically had the gap at around 4 points. The ESM, meanwhile, has been anticipating the Liberal lead would shrink to two or three points for at least a week. The ESM incorporates all useful information in predicting the final outcome, of which the polls are only part. It's forward-looking, anticipating where public opinion will be, while polls are a snapshot of where it is. But of course it stands to reason that investors would take the latest poll into account, as a supplement to their initial attempts to price in the effects of Klander, income trusts, pro-Conservative press comments, and so on.