Ladies and gentlemen, we got ourselves a horse race

The real story in that CTV/Strategic Counsel poll is not the fact that the Liberal lead over the Tories has shrunk to two points (33-31). As arresting as that number is, it will be followed by another poll tomorrow showing the gap has widened to 15 points, if experience is any guide.
But what's common to all the polls are the huge numbers saying they want a change in government. The Strategic Counsel found 58% answering the "time for a change" question in the affirmative, a number which must make the Grits' blood run cold. If ever the voters start to make the connection between changing the government and voting for the opposition, they'll be in real trouble.
In Quebec, where "change" sentiment runs strongest at 64%, they already have: the Bloc is holding onto a 30 point lead. And the poll finds the Tories ahead of the Liberals (38-36) in the rest of Canada for the first time.
Another straw in the wind: bettors on the Tradesports market have pushed up prices on the "Conservatives win the most seats" contract to more than 30 points, from 25 points a few days ago. The Liberals are still the odds-on favourites to win a plurality, but the gap has narrowed.
You might also check out the PinnacleSports site, which in addition to the national campaign -- they've got the Grits going off a 15.5 seat spread -- also handicaps several prominent constituency races -- though I confess I have difficulty understanding their system of stating the odds.
Finally, the University of British Columbia's Election Stock Market is up and running, with markets for number of seats, popular vote, and, oddly, the chances of either major party winning a majority (current favourite: "all other outcomes," at 83 cents on a $1 contract). Given how tight this race appears to be, it might have been better to go with plurality.

AFTERTHOUGHT: Having said not to attach too much weight to the horserace poll, I can't help noting that the trend is much the same when you average all the polls together: the Tories have climbed two or three points in the past week, from 27-28 points to 30 or more. The timing is especially interesting. The Tories went nowhere in the first week, notwithstanding the vaunted GST cut, which all the armchair political strategists thought was genius. They only started to move in the polls after December 7 -- the day they unveiled their daycare plan.
Indeed, a number of polls have showed the GST proposal had no impact, or may even have been negative -- apparently, more voters favour cutting income taxes, and by a wide margin.
It's not the GST that's moving votes. It's daycare.