The federalist beau risque

Meme o' the day: Harper the radical devolutionist. The Star's Tom Walkom is coolly analytical:

Stephen Harper wants to refashion the country. It is his big idea, his theme...

[He] wants to radically decentralize power and taxing authority so that the federal government no longer plays a significant role in social areas, like medicare, that Canadians regard as national institutions...

Put simply, Harper has promised to radically alter the relationship between Ottawa and all of the provinces...

[R]adical decentralization permits, potentially at least, a form of sovereignty-association for all 10 provinces.

The Globe's John Ibbitson, meanwhile, can hardly contain his enthusiasm.

In Stephen Harper's soul, nothing surpasses the importance of reshaping the federation.
For this, he does not need the consent of Parliament. He will act on his own, launching the most profound changes to the shape of the Canadian federation since the patriation of the Constitution.

He lists promised constraints on the use of the federal spending power, which look a lot like what Ottawa already agreed to in the Social Union, plus some formalization of the present informal process of consultation with the provinces on international treaties, where these touch upon areas in their jurisdiction. And, er, that's it, really.

I'm not keen on either of these, but they hardly add up to the revolution described -- still less Ibbitson's bizarre assertion that Harper would in essence implement both the Meech Lake and Charlottetown Accords. (Every time anyone proposes anything mildly decentralizing, somebody says it's Meech Lake all over again. It's a preposterous claim, for reasons I explain here.)

And they're balanced off by other considerations. First, Harper would take a much harder line on separation than anyone in federal politics -- harder than Dion, for example. Here's Ibbitson again:

[T]he flip side of Mr. Harper's strongly decentralist agenda is a new and uncompromising approach to the question of Quebec sovereignty, an approach that will drive Quebec separatists to distraction. Numerous conversations with people close to Mr. Harper, and Mr. Harper's own writings and statements, make it perfectly clear that this prime minister would refuse to join in any future referendum game.

A Harper government would not accept the right of Quebec to secede from Canada. If the Parti Québécois wins the provincial election expected next year, and if PQ Leader André Boisclair attempts to hold a referendum on separation, Ottawa will largely stand aside from the campaign.

In that case, the referendum would not be a contest between sovereigntist forces led by the Quebec premier and federalist forces led by the prime minister. A Harper government would not recognize a Yes vote, regardless of the size of the majority. It would refuse to enter into sovereignty negotiations with the Quebec government, and if compelled to enter those negotiations -- by the Supreme Court, say -- it would not accept sovereignty as a possible outcome.

Finally, it would never cede federal responsibility for first nations in Quebec, for other Quebeckers who wished to remain in Confederation or for federal properties or resources.

No wonder Bill Johnson's such a fan!

Second, much of Harper's platform, notably in the areas of democratic and ethical reforms, would serve to strengthen federal authority, by enhancing federal legitimacy -- a point I made in my election-night piece -- which must surely rank as the most pressing piece of business for all federalists, hard or soft.

Third, there is a one-line pledge in the Conservative platform that may signal something big. It's on the very last page. A Harper government, it says, would "take aggressive action to strengthen the economic union." Note that word: aggressive.

Is there a grand bargain in the works here: transfers of federal tax points, in exchange for provincial acknowledgment of federal power to enforce the economic union? An "open federalism" for a closed door to separatism? If so, it's a deal worth making.