Ipsos poll for CanWest/Global has Tories ahead by four points nationwide, 35-31. More important, provides further evidence of Tory surge in Quebec -- Cons at 19% to Libs 23%.
31%, by the way, should it prove an accurate forecast of the popular vote, would count as the Liberals' second-worst showing. Ever. MORE: Ipsos seat projection has Cons 129-133, Libs 87-91, NDP 27-31, and Bloc 56-60. Ipsos supremo Darrell Bricker (who joins us in the comments section) claims Tories could win seats "in the high 50s or low 60s" in Ontario. A vigorous discussion of polling methodologies, "with slight philosophical differences depending on whether you're a frequentist or a Bayesian," ensues.