The Liberal nightmare

Take a look at the latest UBC Election Stock Market prices: as of writing, they had the Tories winning 128 seats to 96 for the Liberals, 24 for the NDP and 59 for the Bloc, plus 1 independent. As it stands, that would leave the Tories 26 short of a majority. Meaning they would not be able to pass legislation with the help of the NDP alone (assuming everyone voted party-line), but would have to get the Bloc's support. This is actually a bit of a fallacy. The notion that the Bloc would be able to make a federalist government dance to its tune presupposes that the other main federalist party, in this case the Liberals, would always vote against the government -- even if it meant delivering the country into the hands of the separatists. The Liberals, for example, used to tell Atlantic Canadians that a Conservative government would have to rip up the Atlantic Accord, since the Bloc would never vote to pass it. But there's a simple answer to that: the Grits could vote with the Tories to sustain the accord. Problem solved. Nevertheless, it's a fallacy in which the Grits are heavily invested: hence the "Conservative-Bloc alliance" and other terms of art. So much so that they would be peculiarly vulnerable to a last-minute Tory appeal to wavering Liberal voters to help "block the Bloc." Give me enough seats, Stephen Harper might plead, to eliminate the BQ as a factor. I can work with the NDP. But don't give the Bloc the balance of power. For their part, the NDP might plead to Liberal voters (and to their own): give us enough seats so that we hold the balance of power. You're wondering whether to vote Liberal to "stop Harper"? You can't stop Harper: the Liberals can't win. But if the Liberals can't keep him from power, the NDP can still keep him in check. Whether the Grits win 92 seats or 96 seats, it makes no difference. But whether the NDP win 24 or 28 seats makes all the difference in the world. This is the Liberal nightmare scenario: to now, strategic voting has been their friend, frightening NDP-minded voters into the anti-Conservative corral. But once it becomes clear that the Grits cannot form a government -- as I've argued it's been clear since the fall -- the logic of strategic voting may turn against them, with the Tories and NDP eating into their support from either side. More on this in my Saturday column.