Rapid response
This is beyond over. It's not just over, it's overer. It's overest. Ipsos: 43-31. Ekos: 43-29 39-27 (ah, the revised sample). That's before the debate.
And the debate is going to seal the deal. Someone I know had access to one of those focus groups with the rate-o-meters. Apparently they were scoring it 10-1 for Harper. And there's one simple reason. Harper looked into the camera, and told people what he would do. From the opening statement, to the closing statement, and practically every question in between. Here are the four things we'll do about that. Here are the three things we'll do about that. And, again and again, here are my five priorities.
That's how you "win" debates, in the only sense that matters: moving votes.
Martin was simply ghastly. I've never seen him worse. Blustery, shouting, waving, wildly off-topic. Most important, in the entire night, he never gave me a single reason to vote for him.
Oh, I liked the notwithstanding clause proposal, don't get me wrong. In fact, I've argued for much the same thing: let the federal government formally forswear its use, and challenge the provinces to do likewise -- by moral example, rather than constitutional amendment. But that's the sort of radical proposal you spend weeks, no months campaigning on. You don't just casually toss it out in the middle of a debate.
Indeed, I'd be interested to know: is this now the official position of the Liberal Party of Canada? Really? Fine: let the Liberal party lead a great national debate on the notwithstanding clause, and let's have a free vote on it in the House. (It would make a great private member's bill.) But why do I think this idea will be forgotten about as soon as the election is over? Why do I think it will disappear from view as suddenly as it appeared? UPDEBATE: More from that Ekos poll:
MEANWHILE: Liberals quietly consider the possibility of defeat POST-DEBATE: A bevy of unscientific and largely meaningless "who-won" polls all give it to Harper. Global's online and txt msg polls both score it heavily in the Conservative leader's favour. CTV's online poll also runs three-to-two Harper, while the Globe and Mail's interactive "report card" gives Harper the top marks. Even the Toronto Star's online readers give Harper the nod, by a margin of two-to-one. Meanwhile, a Leger poll in the Sun makes it 34-30, not far off Ipsos's internet poll, at 34-31. But we won't really know who "won" until at least a week from now. PRE-DEBATE: The story on the Star's decision to hold the Ekos poll for a day is recounted here.
And the debate is going to seal the deal. Someone I know had access to one of those focus groups with the rate-o-meters. Apparently they were scoring it 10-1 for Harper. And there's one simple reason. Harper looked into the camera, and told people what he would do. From the opening statement, to the closing statement, and practically every question in between. Here are the four things we'll do about that. Here are the three things we'll do about that. And, again and again, here are my five priorities.
That's how you "win" debates, in the only sense that matters: moving votes.
Martin was simply ghastly. I've never seen him worse. Blustery, shouting, waving, wildly off-topic. Most important, in the entire night, he never gave me a single reason to vote for him.
Oh, I liked the notwithstanding clause proposal, don't get me wrong. In fact, I've argued for much the same thing: let the federal government formally forswear its use, and challenge the provinces to do likewise -- by moral example, rather than constitutional amendment. But that's the sort of radical proposal you spend weeks, no months campaigning on. You don't just casually toss it out in the middle of a debate.
Indeed, I'd be interested to know: is this now the official position of the Liberal Party of Canada? Really? Fine: let the Liberal party lead a great national debate on the notwithstanding clause, and let's have a free vote on it in the House. (It would make a great private member's bill.) But why do I think this idea will be forgotten about as soon as the election is over? Why do I think it will disappear from view as suddenly as it appeared? UPDEBATE: More from that Ekos poll:
In Ontario, the Conservatives have widened the gap to a 10-percentage-point lead over the Liberals. Of the 518 Ontarians surveyed, 43.8 per cent supported the Tories, 33.5 per cent the Liberals, 16.2 per cent the NDP, and 5.4 per cent the Greens. Even in Quebec, the Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals. A total of 330 people were surveyed in that province and 19.1 per cent threw their support behind the Tories, compared with 17.4 per cent for the Liberals.
MEANWHILE: Liberals quietly consider the possibility of defeat POST-DEBATE: A bevy of unscientific and largely meaningless "who-won" polls all give it to Harper. Global's online and txt msg polls both score it heavily in the Conservative leader's favour. CTV's online poll also runs three-to-two Harper, while the Globe and Mail's interactive "report card" gives Harper the top marks. Even the Toronto Star's online readers give Harper the nod, by a margin of two-to-one. Meanwhile, a Leger poll in the Sun makes it 34-30, not far off Ipsos's internet poll, at 34-31. But we won't really know who "won" until at least a week from now. PRE-DEBATE: The story on the Star's decision to hold the Ekos poll for a day is recounted here.
1/10/2006
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