Tobin's out

So we're down to just Rae, Ignatieff, Cauchon, Dion, Dryden, Rock, Stronach, Brison, Bevilacqua, Volpe, Coderre... plus whoever else pops their head up in the next six months.

THIS JUST OUT: Paul Wells has all the latest non-candidates. GERARD WHO: The Dan Report's dogged campaigning for Gerard Kennedy has paid off: he now has a narrow lead over Stéphane Dion in first round balloting on that nifty transferrable ballot poll. Dion takes it in the 10th round, though. REALITY CHECK: CalgaryGrit sees eerie historic parallels:

I'd like everyone to remember a certain leadership race which featured the following candidates: Stephen Harper Belinda Stronach Tony Clement That's about the equivalent of a race featuring Manley, Belinda, and Andy Mitchell. Lord, Harris, MacKay, Prentice, Strahl ... the list of high profile candidates who took a pass on the Tory leadership goes on and on. And guess who is Prime Minister today?

So, to continue the parallel, the Liberals just have to wait for the Tories to sink under the weight of a massive corruption scandal, a vicious internal civil war, and an armwaving, untrustworthy blowhard of a leader. Then they're in like Flynn. UNREALITY CHECK: Only now are people starting to appreciate the enormous contributions made by ... the strutting bantam in epaulets!

As he prepares to leave office on Monday, Canadians everywhere owe Jean Lapierre a great deal of thanks for this. Thanks 100% to him, and him alone, support for independence is now down to the levels it was at...when he first took over as Martin's Quebec lieutenant in January 2004.

Do I sense a draft? (UPDATE: So let's see: Stronach, Rae, Lapierre... If any Liberals run, you'd have the complete set.) SURREALITY CHECK: "He's 82, and far from through!" The Draft Hellyer campaign is already picking out slogans.