Boisclair burning
Maybe it's just a rogue poll, but... criminy:
One week into the Quebec provincial election campaign, a new poll suggests the Liberals have maintained its lead over the Parti Quebecois.The ADQ is within four points of the PQ? The PQ are within four points of third place? That's big news, if it holds.The Leger Marketing poll shows Premier Jean Charest and the Liberals have the support of 34 per cent of respondents.
The PQ had 26 per cent support, while the Action democratique du Quebec had 22 per cent.
A CROP poll published last week showed the Liberals at 36 per cent support, the PQ at 32 per cent and the ADQ at 18 per cent.
L'UPDATE: Get the full story in Le Devoir.
2/26/2007
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24 Comments
How many times do we have to deal with the same question?
It has nothing to do with how close the polls have one Party to another.
We do not elect our representatives by popular vote across an entire Province, although some stupid pollsters do their polls that way.
We elect our representatives on a per-riding basis, and the electoral variability between individual ridings is very high. Especially so in the Province of Quebec.
So where, exactly, did the ADQ poll well? And where, exactly, did the PQ poll poorly?
I also want to know how that extreme socialist party is doing in Montreal.. was above 5% last time i checked. Boisclair is facing a Kim Campbell wipeout and it's only started to be reported on even in blogosphere. Lysiane Gagnon discusses today in the Globe. His coalition is totally melting down as various groups vent their hate on a gay rich kid from Outremont who admitted doing blow in office .. Of course, never underestimate Mario Dumont's ability to NOT execute when given a golden opportunity..
Anonymous in answer to your question I suspect that 22% for Mario is very concentrated in Trois Rivieres east. Charest has got to have increased his vote out there as well though. But yes you're right this poll does not tell us what may be the most fascinating part, if Boisclair loses the suburban 450 area to libs or ADQ. I can't see him losing seats in the Monteregie rust belt from Joliette to Vercheres, St Jean etc.
So does this mean A Charest minority?
It was in the press's interest to play up the 'Charest can still lose' angle, as everyone likes a close race.
But Charest is going to walk away with this one: Majority.
Then where do the hardcore votes go, does the ADQ become the new PQ. Remeber Mario supported the Oui side last time.
Mario's gets his suits at the same knife to the throat store that Bourassa did. I think Charet has been looking at the ties in the window.
You cant be a successful Quebec provincial politician and NOT shop there. Important for ROC to recognize the sartorial splendour of these guys but at the end of the day treat like any fashion.
DOnt ndulge it becaue inevitably it changes
It would be a disaster for the PQ to finish 3rd.
But in reality, this is more likely a reflection of Boisclair rather than the PQ.
Boisclair is the weakest, most undignified, most undeserving and ineffective political leader I have seen in a long time. And I do not say this because he is younger than most. Very few politicians have snorted cocaine, embarassed themselves in raunchy and sexually suggestive television skits, and shown such poor decisions as him.
You guys don't know Quebec well enough. The point of this fracture is the `hardcore votes' don't exist. For the first time since the earth cooled Francophone Quebecers are not voting as a monolith. Suburban Montreal is starting to hate union/Duceppe/hard left downtown montreal, which is starting to hate Outremont-leDevoir-Brebeuf-Boisclair-bourgeois-intelligentsia, which is starting to hate rural Eastern Quebec and Quebec City, where farming is still important and people still go to church and frankly it's not a lot different from southern Manitoba or eastern Ontario (tory hardcore land federally). Within all these groups there are `hardcore' voters that are super pro independence; it depends how much that motivates them. For those people that only care about that (fewer than you think; many people just think Charest is too fake and the PLQ too much of an alien, anglo/ethnic wuss party to support) there's now a choice between the big tent PQ and those hardline Quebec Solidere people. It's very like Mulroney's coalition collapsing. Only in Quebec did you have people who were really Tories like Bouchard in same party with crazed communists like Duceppe. PQ long term comeback from Boisclair after this election will depend on whether old-stock Francophones like the split against the now permanently dominant PLQ, whether their economic class, regional and social value interests will trump the ethnic card. If Mario ever became premier (I don't see how the math will ever work for him; much of PQ land is too left wing for his message and Liberal dominance of West Montreal is perpetual) I doubt he'd go to Bourassa blackmail clothing store. He'd be more along the lines of the annoying Danny Williams school. If he won over suburban Anglos, which he'd probly have to to get a majority someday, he'd toss out the knife at the throat too.
"For the first time since the earth cooled Francophone Quebecers are not voting as a monolith"
You idiot, the francophone Quebecers vote has never been monolith. Especially at the provincial level. It is the anglophone vote who is monolith and predictable.
This is another myth and another example of Quebec bashing (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quebec_bashing) that is false and is part of a strategy to present the Quebec people as a tribal society.
Hey, quebecois separatiste, get the f$#% out of my country and take no part of it with you.
Hey Separatiste, Idiot here. Sorry, I won't rise to the bait and will admit i was too cavalier in my language. Yeah, I guess francophones don't always vote as a monolith. My recollection just distorted by the 74 of 75 trudeau liberal seats in quebec all these years that forced socialism on english Canada (your revenge on us for being conquered), the similar mulroney landslide that had happier results, etc etc. There are exceptions like the chretien clawback in 2000 that prove you're right and I'm wrong. Or the Creditistes, i suppose.
I meant more that Francophone Quebec never voted along its `normal' class and nation-building interests as found in most countries, other provinces etc., and that's the monolithic part. A small percentage of francophone vote did flip back and forth between BouBou to Parizeau and then somewhat to Charest, enabling changes of government. (can anyone among coyne readers generalize about these seats that flipped? suburban Mtl?) That said that hard core PQ land has been very hard core for 30 years now and this is the first sign of it splitting up from both left and right -- and most importantly over non linguistic non referendum issues. Whether Bourassa or Parizeau there was no deviation from the, er, monolithic consensus that confronting the ROC was of utmost importance, just the degree.
Anglo vote in Quebec isn't as monolithic as you think either - though it 90% is. Jack Layton's grandpa was Union Nationale, there were brief rebellions against libs to UN in 1976-80 and equality party later when Anglos felt betrayed. If Mario takes off and cuts out that `independent Republic of Quebec' stuff look for him to make inroads in the West Island over time. Non monolithism will develop both ways.
I actually don't really bash Quebec that much, it's more of a love-hate relationship. It's generally a lot more fun to live than anywhere else in Canada. Your intellectual / newspaper class sucks compared to us Anglos' though and hasn't had a new idea since 1972, it's like reading the Walrus every day in French. Who is the francophone Andrew Coyne or Mark Steyn?
Keith C:
Afraid I have to agree with Quebecois Separatiste on the monolithic nature of the Quebec anglo community, at least those in and around Montreal.
Perhaps not quite as much so as the provincial level (though almost), but at the federal level the anglo-Quebec seats are easily considered the safest Liberal seats in the country, and that isn't about to change any time soon. The federal Liberals are basically assured 8-10 seats in the West Island. Who knows why: Trudeau nostalgia, the mistaken belief that the Liberals are toughest on separatism. Whatever it is, the disease of Liberal sheepdom appears just as strong in suburban anglo Montreal as in the downtown core, incomparable even to Toronto.
Even during the Mulroney sweep, anglo-Montreal remained Liberal!
Now in regards to Mario Dumont... I think the concensus is that this is his last kick at the provincial can. If he manages to supplant the Boisclair's PQ as the official opposition, he can claim a moral victory, if not an absolute one.
Will he then make a run at federal politics? Could Stephen Harper really accept as a candidate a guy who admitted to voting Oui in 1995? It may get the Conservatives another 10-20 seats in Quebec, but won't play well anywhere. Not to mention Dumont's recent comments about immigrants and Quebec culture, at a time when the Tories need to make gains in support among vis-min communities.
...I meant that a Dumont Conservative federal candidacy wouldn't play well anywhere ELSE (i.e. other than francophone Quebec).
Would Chantal Hebert qualify? I think she's more of an astute observer of the political game, both within Quebec and in Canada as a whole, but I don't know too much about her to be honest. Perhaps she has her own site wherein she does offer up new ideas much as AC and Steyn do.
KRB:
I think Keith was looking for someone a little more iconoclastic than Chantal Hebert.
Astute observer she may be, but doesn't challenge conventional wisdom (and certainly never leans right) the way Andrew Coyne or Margaret Wente regularly do.
"My recollection just distorted by the 74 of 75 trudeau liberal seats in quebec all these years that forced socialism on english Canada"
What about the 98 out of 99 Liberals seat in Ontario in 1993 which forced 10 yrs of extreme federalism and corruption on Quebec? Or the current Alberta conservative tribalism?
You are right that the voting pattern is not normal in Quebec because of "La question nationale"
That's another reason to become an independant country. So that being nationalist or separatist won't be a political identity anymore.
Dear Quebecois Separatiste,
your point about other monolithic voting groups in Canada just proves how similar francophone Quebec is to the rest of Canada - one country. Love it!
Oh, and as a reminder: if ever a Boisclair "consultation caravan" comes to my neck of the woods, I will welcome them and start explaining how partition will work. Vive Montreal Libre!
To Keith C's correctors:
During the Mulroney sweep, my riding, an anglo-Montreal riding, belonged to Jack Layton's Dad, Bob Layton - a Tory. Not all Liberal-land in those days.
To the Others:
The ADQ is polling 1st or 2nd in a vast swath of non-Montreal ridings. While voting day is voting day - my sources tell me that the ADQ is doing much better riding by riding than the PQ outside Montreal.
days later and the separatist does not respond.... hmmmm.... some he doesn't like about a fellow Quebecker? pas Quebec solidaire, eh?
Chuckercanuck: Quebec is indivisible. The ROC already stole Labrador for us. now enough.
chuckercanuck,
International law supports the right of Quebec to succede with all its territory intact. This is because Quebec has a definite boundary within Canada but there are no definite boundaries within Quebec. The municipal boundaries are the domain of the Quebec government. So "Vive Montréal libre" is impossible because half of Montreal is sovereignist so it would be impossible to draw boundaries in Montreal and elsewhere.
So, Canada is divisible but not Quebec. Deal with it.
BTW, to the poster who told quebecois separatiste to get out of his country. He and I are already out of the country because we live in the nation of Quebec.
Andrew Coyne likes to pretend he is bilingual but I can't even type some French accents. The blogue would not accept guillemets
Vive le Québec libre!
Vive les Quebecois Libres!
Vive les Quebecois Libres de vos reves fanatiques!
The sovereignty of Quebeckers is being strangled by your dreams of Quebec's sovereignty.
Anyway - si vous ne comprennez pas nous, les Quebeckers -- vous ne comprennez pas le Quebec.
You will never collect taxes west of St-Laurent blvd. in a new country called Quebec. Never. I tell you this to be friendly and help you understand the full magnitude of the challenges you will face. Not to debate it. Simply to state it. Ignore it if you want.
Chuckercanuck,
I have no idea what you're saying. You're mumbling.
As for your threat not to pay taxes to a national Quebec government, you don't scare me. If you are going to to break the law and preach civil disobedience to others, we'll lock you up in jail and then send you to Canada.
Anonymous,
I'll explain, nice and simple too:
1) Separatists have no ownership on what Quebec is or what a Quebecker is. There is a breed of Quebecker that loves Canada and the separatist does not understand that breed. So long as the separatist does not understand the Canada-loving Quebecker, they have not real understanding of Quebec in its entirety.
2) Quebec separatism has been something that limits the freedoms and choices of Quebeckers. Separatists are trapped voting for the PQ even though it fails utterly to represent centre and centre-right separatists. Meanwhile, federalists are trapped voting for the Liberals even if that party fails to represent left and right federalists. Its a stifling debate that leaves us in the fiscal basket case condition we are in.
3) If you have not paid attention to how industrial parks and business centres have developped, let's make it west of Decaries, then you'll have fooled yourself. You have to collect taxes at source and if these sources, en masse, withold tax payments, there will be very little you can do except try to launch some mass arrest of 400,000 people! good luck with that!
chuckercanuck
you explaining nice and simple is a laugh. You are incoherent. You must be a child.
Let me explain something nice and simple. When the OUI wins the referendum everyone will be expected to honour the result. It is called democracy.
Is that simple enough for you?
BTW,you speak for the 400,000 English people in Quebec? Yeah right.
Even if they all won't pay taxes, there are lots of little ways to force people to pay taxes. Shut off the electricity, eliminate services, eliminate subventions, repossess their property, little things like that. And of course, we could expel the worst of the lot. They are after all only 8% of the Quebec population.
Think about it, anonymous.
Imagine a province with a uniform population density has a referendum.
The east side of the province votes 100% to separate.
The west side votes 99% to not separate.
The separatist side wins by 1%.
Partition would be an obvious, amicable outcome.
Forcing the west side to go along with the east side would be a recipe for disaster requiring, as you point out, very drastic actions to impose.
What will happen to the Quebec economy as you Mugabe the new nation by cutting off power and appropriate property? It hasn't done wonders in Zimbabwe, has it?
And what will happen to Quebec's international reputation? Again, the Mugabe precendent applies.