Speaking of sunsets
Try this: Middle Ontario is in the process of defecting back to the Conservatives. The burghers of rural and suburban Ontario, who had deserted the Tories en masse during the Chretien years, have found a comfort level with Stephen Harper. More than that, they are evidently dismayed at the sharp leftward lurch the Liberals have taken in the last few weeks. The vote on the anti-terrorism measures seems to have been the capper. A week or so ago, there was room to doubt how much the national polls mattered, given the Tories were still 10 points back in Ontario. Now they're eight-to-ten points ahead.
That's not the only nugget in the poll: the Greens, even with the NDP; the Bloc, mired in the mid 30s; clearly, there's a lot of movement going on, as parties and electorate alike continue to adjust to the breakup of the Liberal empire. But if Ontario is flipping, we're heading to the polls.
And if Ontario falls, watch out for Quebec. As it is, Harper is looking at a Quebec election in which the Charest Liberals stand a strong chance of being re-elected, with the Action Democratique emerging as a serious alternative for the first time. He gets a feel-good lift in the rest of Canada from a "federalist" win, while a strong ADQ showing lends credibility to the Conservative cause in Quebec -- not to mention foot-soldiers for the coming campaign.
Oh to be in Harper's shoes. When your biggest problem is how to engineer your own defeat in Parliament, you've got to be feeling good.
CLARIFIDATE: That "Reid poll" is an Angus Reid poll, not an Ipsos-Reid poll.
3/01/2007
related
Keep bookmarked posts here.
64 Comments
Andrew,
Shouldn't the fact that the Tories were 10 points back in Ontario a week ago, and now they're 8 points ahead, give you pause? And incidentally, why do you think the 10-points-behind poll didn't matter, but the 8-points-ahead poll does?
Are we really to believe that such a huge swing occurred in just one week?
I don't buy it....yet.
First of all, Decima's sample size of 1,000 people is not very large. I would like to see something in the 2,000+ range confirm this.
Second of all, the Ontario numbers were not broken down by region of province. Have the suburban Toronto former supporters of Mike Harris come home, or has he simply made further gains in small-town southwestern, eastern, and cottage country Ontario? We don't know.
One thing that is encouraging is the Tory figure in Quebec. Why would 15% be encouraging, you ask? Because it means that, despite the weak Quebec performance, Harper has managed to somewhat solidify his support everywhere, keeping his national numbers stable. Should those Quebec numbers bump back up to the 25% the Tories achieved in the last election, Harper may just get his majority (assuming the Ontario numbers hold).
Anyway, that's my crack fix for the day. And as we all know by now, given its stellar track record, it's the SES numbers that REALLY matter, and the latest batch haven't come out yet.
Incredibly enough, the Angus Reid numbers are REAL:
http://www.angusreidstrategies.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=news&newsid=25
The trend is now undeniable. The leadership numbers were definitely a precursor to a massive shift in voter support.
re: Greens
Although I think Elizabeth May is a bit of a weirdo (remember how she actually started to cry at a news conference in 2006 when it became clear that the Conservatives were going to win?), it's good to see a leftie party that isn't beholden to unions rise in prominence.
Layton's got to be a nervous wreck right now. His party could be facing its worst result since the 9-seat tally in 1993.
Look at the sample size of that Angus Reid poll!
3,189!
Does anybody know who the heck Angus Reid is? They normally post results from other polls about a week after they're initially released. Yet here they are publishing their own poll showing a huge Tory lead. What gives?
I noticed in the PDF file that the survey was conducted online. I'm not sure what that means for the accuracy, but this certainly makes me skeptical.
I noticed in the PDF file that the survey was conducted online. I'm not sure what that means for the accuracy, but this certainly makes me skeptical.
Are you a pollster?
No. It's just that online sounds fishy.
No. It's just that online sounds fishy.
Anonymous posters throwing eggs at a published poll seems even more fishy, if you ask me.
I'm not throwing eggs! In fact, I'd be personally delighted if these numbers were real. I just wanted to put it out there that this is an online poll.
From February 20 to 27, 2007, Angus Reid Strategies conducted an online survey among a
randomly selected, representative sample of 3,189 Canadian decided voters. The results have been
statistically weighted according to the most current education, age, gender and region Census data
to ensure a sample representative of the entire adult population of Canada. Discrepancies in or
between totals are due to rounding.
This reads like a proper poll, just done using the internet rather than the telephone. They are correcting for many of the demographic biases that that their panel brings. They draw from their online panel; it's not like one of the polls that are a question on the home page and script kiddies take over. Doesn't mean it isn't a rogue poll though. It does seem a bit of an outlier.
Yes, you've said it three time now. Congratulations.
Here's where the describe the online panel.
http://www.angusreidstrategies.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=news&newsid=11&page=2
It's new (January 2007). As they say, past performance is not a guarantor of future performance. But, I'd sure like to see some before getting too excited.
Yes, it may be an appropriate time for Andrew to pull out the Hindenberg picture again for Martin II(Dion)'s demise.
I vaguely remember this, but some quick research confirms it. Angus Reid is the "Reid" in Ipsos-Reid before it was bought by Ipsos.
So, the guy has a history of polling in Canada. Looks like he wants to get back in the game with a vengeance.
I have a question... why does Harper need to engineer his defeat? Can't he just go to the GG and ask for an election? Or am I just betraying my ignorance?? [entirely possible!!]
Don Johnson, he has to give her a reason to have an election. If he still has the confidence of the House, he won't have much of one, will he?
Don, he could do that, but it might piss away his advantage. First of all, the GG could say no, which would not be a terribly bad thing to do as long as the government has the confidence of the House, even if it doesn't want it.
Second, there is no other reason for him to call that election than that he thinks he can get a majority. That rationale might make sense after 3-4 years, but not after 1.
A much better pretense for an election is the defeat of a goodie-laden budget, which would allow the PM to go across the country saying we can't receive the bounty unless he has a majority.
Warren Kinsella(musings) stated that perhaps the LPC is in trouble because of a cultural change.
I think he meant a CULTural change.
Cult, as in Maurice Strong's Earth Charter, Colorado Fringe religion thing, Global Governance, ect.
Cult as in Suzuki's Kyoto thing.
But mostly because of Dion's lost generation hippy cult thing.
Also, the Libs fortunes may be taking a hit because Canadians are now getting their info through the Internet. I have never seen ANY polling data so perhaps Dion was never above 28%. Polls as a driver of public opinion ??
Strange also, that WK would use Jesus in knocking the new iPhone. Why ?? Why does he also promote Blackberries ?? Again, the blogsphere is a way ahead of the MSM.
Go to sda.com and check the archives, Dec 16 2005 and one can see a connection between Blackberries-Rim-Frechette-Centre for International Governance Innovation-UN-LPC
www.smalldeadanimals.com/archives/003153.html
As ac pointed out, it's better being on Harper's side of this dilemma.
For example, if the other parties are desperate to avoid an election, you can pull them towards you and pass you agenda with their approval.
Either way, you get what you want.
How much you want to bet we start getting some movement from the opposition on things like crime bills and even Senate reform?
Should be fun.
Okay, so I spoke (typed) too soon.
Yes the Angus Reid poll has an impressive sample size. But again, I will withhold my glee until the SES numbers to come out, whenever that may be.
A much better pretense for an election is the defeat of a goodie-laden budget, which would allow the PM to go across the country saying we can't receive the bounty unless he has a majority.
Are you new? There is little chance that Harper is going to do that.
While defeat may eventually come on a money bill, the campaign is far more likely to centre on Harper picking apart Liberal positions on Kyoto and terrorism.
On the environment in particular, the question will be: do we want more grand Liberal pronouncements followed by no action, or more modest, realistic, and less flashy Conservative pronouncements followed by concrete action?
Ok, thanks. I just seemed to remember that in theory at least the PM could ask for an election any time he wants. It wouldn't look too good if he asked for one and didn't get one, eh?
I was thinking earlier that this enviro gambit was defusing that issue in preparation for presenting a budget that would become THE issue of a campaign -- put so much in it that the people want, but also enough poison pills that the opposition couldn't stomach it. Then you campaign on the defeated budget.
Regarding online polls, check out the comments under Andrew's link to "Jason Cherniak".
This is truly good news. Harper never ceases to amaze. Credit goes to Baird, Mackay and others as well for a job well done this year.
And the timing is perfect.
Now they can release the budget that they would have released with a majority, or at least close to it. If the opposition votes, it down, presto, an election that the opposition doesn't want.
But it would still be nice to see another poll or two, this could be the 1 poll out of 20 that is outside the error boundaries.
Finally, finally, finally, Ontario is showing signs of accepting the Tories.
I think the political terra firma is shifting considerably. My thoughts are that it might have been better for the Liberals to save the environment as a club to whack the Tories when an election was in sight. The Cons have had ten weeks to transform themselves into something credible for voters on this file and because they are the government, they had time to implement policy - even if it was stolen from the Liberal play book. I don't think it was prudent for the Liberals to troll votes from a party that has never even come close to forming a government so really, everyone including the Tories have been shifting to the left. I think the argument can be made that the Tories bear no resemblance to the turnip truck rednecks they once were and they are in the process of defining themselves as a new voice for the mushy middle.
Am I the only one nervous that 13% Green support sounds an awful lot like 7% parked votes, ready to go back to the Liberals at election time?
As I pointed out on AGWN, these polls don't make one iota of difference. For one thing, we may be months or years from an election. When was the last time that a poll that far out from an election could be considered an accurate reflection of the way that people actually vote?
For another thing, MPs are not elected on a national poll, they are elected on a riding-by-riding poll on election day. If every riding voted exactly the same as the national average, then the Tories would win every seat; obviously support for the various parties differs from riding to riding. Depending on whether the support for a party is diffuse or concentrated, the election results could differ wildly even if poll numbers remain relatively static.
These polls are meaningless, and I don't see why anyone puts any stock in them at all.
I wonder what the political party internal polls are saying. Clearly the Libs are a little long faced these days and the Tories have more spring in their step.
I would guess that the Libs in order to stop or reverse this trend would look for a scandal, any scandal, to try and paint the Tories as well, just as corrupt as they are.
The other thing they could do is to try and woo Elizabeth May in hopes that she could bring her Greenie votes with her.Maybe bribe her with a corner office and a solar powered paper shredder.
Oh , wait they are already tried these things.
I think the Angus Reid poll is closest to reality.
In Quebec I believe both Crop and Leger polls have put the CPC in the low 20 to 24% range, well ahead of the Decima results, but consistent with this Angus poll.
I don't think Dion even remotely has the right stuff to stop this downward momentum any time soon. And the worse it gets, the more Liberal knives he's certainly going to pulling out of his back every night before lights out time.
Harper's kicking some serious ass, right on!!!
The Angus-Reid regional spreads, superimposed on the riding-by-riding 2006 election results, give the following seat count nationally: Conservative 160, Liberal 71, BLQ 48, NDP 28, Green 0, Other 1.
The Ontario Conservative/Liberal spread is about all that matters in minority/majority scenarios - the rest is dross.
I've changed my mind about the non-stop coverage of supposed Global Warming in the media.
Looking at the latest Canadian federal polling numbers, I'm all for it. In fact, I hope they take it to "Eleven" on the shrill dial by the time the election is in full swing.
Although the MSM's intent was/is to kneecap the Conservatives... thinking that people who were scared of melting icecaps would come down on the side of the Liberals and Dion the green scarf-wearing Jolly Green Giant... the result has been much different.
Instead, the fearmongering has given rise to the Green Party, which is carving the left side off of the NDP and the Liberal vote.
Sweet.
The longer the MSM stays at Defcon 5 over Global Warming.... the greater the chance that the left's vote will be split three ways and Harper will get a solid majority when the election is called this month. Combine this with Dion's massive jump to the left (as noted on CBC's The National last night by AC) and it's a recipe for disaster for Harper's foes.
Last night, Jill Macyshon did her part on the CTV news, declaring that the recent spate of tsunamis and earthquakes were caused by climate change... as if these particular natural disasters didn't exist before Algore put out the word.... as if weather patterns impact upon plate tectonics. How does she think the mountains were formed? Christ.
Anyway, to the MSM, I say... keep it up!
I can't believe I'm saying this, but right now, the 'sky is falling' MSM is Harper's best friend.
If I'm reading the Angus-Reid poll correctly, the Tories lead the Libs by 10 points (34% vs. 24%) in the 18-34 age bracket.
Of all the numbers in that poll, that is the one that surprises me the most.
What is probably Dion's biggest shortcoming will become painfully apparent during the six weeks or so of campaigning--his delivery of stump speeches and ability to motivate Liberal workers. Harper is already very good at that, having improved noticeably with each campaign. But everything about Dion tells me that he is going to bomb big-time in that department. Never mind that he will have little credibility wrt whatever policies he proposes, as the Liberals own internal poll showed them a few months ago.
The Liberals shift to the Left, leaving the coveted middle by default to the Tories, signals a clever strategy of long-term political thinking.
I dont beleive Harper has done very much to gain, it is the Liberal's that have sold their holdings in the middle and no party but the Tories have caught the bargains there, let them enjoy, for the Liberls will be back and unstoppable.
The Liberals have decided to destroy the NDP as a political force, take their captial, then regain a left-centrist position; they cannot do this if they maintian the pragmatism of monkey in the middle politics. They cannot fight a two-front war, a prospect now faced by the NDP between the Greens and the Liberals.
Bourque is running a poll on his main page, asking his visitors who the next Liberal leader will be. The Toronto (Red) Star can't be far behind.
I never thought the knives would come out so soon.
The 'natural governing party' of Canada thought their two minutes in the penalty box was done, and that it was time to return to the throne and all the goodies.
Unfortunately for them, Dion is ruining those plans. It's now time for him to be introduced to the underside of the bus.
Within weeks, Harper will set a trap for dim Dion and we'll be into an election.
Indeed, it has to be extrememly tempting for the Conservatives to trigger a dropping of the writ:
1. Polls look good and it is likely to continue to get better with the budget items such as Income-splitting and fiscal imbalance items bringing even more people into the CP's camp.
2. None of the other parties have even remotely as much money and organizational strength as the CP(probably the greatest under-reported achievement of Stephen Harper BTW).
3. The other partys are wrestling over the same left-of-centre vote. And in doing so drive themselves further and further to the left and away from the great mass of middle of the road voters.
4. There have been no deaths in Afghanistan for 2 months (pretty much ever since the Quebec Van doos started rotating in).
5. A trouncing of the PQ is likely in Quebec due in no small part to the actions of Stephen Harper. The reduction of the secessionist threat is very beneficial to the CP both in Quebec and Ontario.
...
It's all good - too good perhaps as the other partys will now go along with anything the CP puts forward - even a confidence motion on Kyoto - rather than precipitate an election.
But even if an election is triggered, the card that the opposition will play is the same one it has played with success in the last two elections - That the conservatives, led by Stephen Harper are "too scary" to be allowed a majority mandate.
Today Stephane Dion will start up the Scary rhetoric in a speech in Dartmouth. This is essentially an admission that the Liberals cannot defeat the CP, but that they can act as the best option to prevent the Tories from getting that majority. However, like the environment/kyoto and national security, Stephane is playing his scary cards far too early and too forcefully. All Stephen Harper has to do is act calm and ignore the bleatings of this elitist twit - i.e. carrying as he has up until now - and by election time the scary message will be falling on ears that have grown deaf to that shrill tone.
....
That is not to say that the CP will romp to a majority...
1. The manufacturing economies in Ontario and Quebec are in collapse masked by the boom in the service sector and business with the red-hot economies of AB BC and now SK. Should there be a slowing in the non-manufacturing sectors , it could hurt the CP.
2. The scary card might still do the trick if it pulls significant support back from the Greens. This is especially true if the non-con vote is triggered by a environment issue.
3. A spike in fatalities and casualties in Afghanistan - this time very likely men and women from Quebec - could scupper support in QC and (sub)urban ON and BC.
4. Danny Williams will soon be leading the charge on equalization - bringing it up into the headlines where Stephen Harper would be put in a damned if he does, damned if he doesn't position.
All of the above issues might not cost Stephen Harper the keys to 24 Sussex, but they could prevent the hoped for majority. The backlash from the public and the party faithful at having put the country through another election for no apparent reason other than that of blantant act of political opportunism could prevent a Stephen Harper-led CP from ever getting a majority.
To be or not to be ...
The Liberal spinners at the G&M, CBC, and the Star are likely frantically trying to figure out how they can start chanting the "Canadians don't want another election so soon after the last one" mantra wihtout destroying what little credibility they have left, after salivating over the prospect of a spring election up until now.
john g: Harper will load the budget so full of tax cuts and other measures that the "new even lefter-leaning" Dion will have no choice but to defeat it.
Heck, the inclusion of the income trust measures alone will paint him into that corner.
Triggering the fall of the gov't will be Dion's doing. Period. No matter what lipstick the CBC tries to apply.
Dion is self-destructing and the MSM is driving down the Liberal / NDP numbers with their GLOBAL WARMING nightly freak-outs.
Harper must be going out of his mind with glee.
"I never thought the knives would come out so soon."
You're darn right the knives are coming out. The sub-urban Ontario Liberals have finally figured out they're not invincible. A whole bunch of them are likely pissed that they did not pick Ignatieff because now they're going to be out of a job. I can't say I'll miss them. Not even Mark Holland.
"I think the political terra firma is shifting considerably." - Sean Cummings
That says a lot right there. The political landscape does not appear to be very firm right now. But that also means it could shift in other directions just as quickly.
For all we know, the Liberals may closet Dion during an election and play all sorts of "centrist" promises to English Canada (letting Dion focus on the federalist regions of Quebec). Then perhaps breaking any promises if they achieve power.
But if Dion manages to continue to outflank the NDP on various issues, his claims that anyone to his right is an extremist ideologue won't resonate well with the electorate.
Gord:
"Today Stephane Dion will start up the Scary rhetoric in a speech in Dartmouth."
Might be high time for a nice game of "rhetoric bingo". Dibs on "mean-spirited", "ideology and/or ideological" and "canadian values".....
JCL
jcl:
"Neo-conservative" and "American" and "uncanadian" would be my picks.
PM really ramped up the harshness of the rhetoric in the frantic last days of the last campaign so the above are more in line than the now tame "mean-spirited".
If Dion starts saying "Georgre W Harper" or "Stephen Cheney" or "Stitler" then you will know that they are in trouble.
An inconvenient speculation,
Dion has been trying hard to become the Al Gore of Canada. And it's costing him, big-time.
The problem: Gore only truly lurched leftward after he left politics. The Clinton/Gore years were more conservative fiscally and policy-wise than George Bush Jr would ever hope to be.
If Dion keeps this up, he and his dog-prop Kyoto will end up with Gore on the lecture circuit.
Thanks to Dion's pandering, Harper just might get that majority...
Andrew -- prognosticate, please. I want to hear your prediction of how the Tories engineer the fall. I assume it will be the budget, but what will be the stuff the other parties don't like and which parties will vote him down. Libs and Dips? Or Libs and Bloqs?
My guess is lack of funding for Kyoto (Rodriquez meets a money bill). And all 3 combine to take this down.
Cherniak is delusional when he speaks of a Liberal majority. The Liberal Red Machine is finished, and Dion is the worst thing that could have ever happened to the Liberal party. Too bad, they could have made it work with a different leader (say, Bob Rae), but with Dion, they'll soon have nothing but a tombstone that reads, "RIP, Liberal Party".
you guys are a bunch of poll-smokers ;-). the sheer joy displayed here at the numbers is quite funny...especially the angus-reid poll which is online (i.e. useless). anyway, i don't want to dampen your naive spirits too much---continue with the circle jerk.
"Cherniak is delusional..."
You could have stopped at just saying that and you would have been correct Werner.
AC,
Polls are indeed the political junkies crack.
In this case, Tories are seeing some stuff that is making us a little giddy. But that being the case, I agree that, for whatever reason, the LPC just plain out picked the wrong guy.
Harper has all kinds of room to test drive policies and run stuff up the flagpole.
The minority situation is perfect for trying out new and interesting ideas.
I think the Tories should look at carbon debit cards (like England) as a way of the market helping us with our carbon issues.
Also, the Tories should settle some outstanding land claims and re-write the Indian Act.
The Tories should finish the job with Status of Women and make it crystal clear that the Canadian government is no longert in the business of social engineering.
As you can see, I am quite giddy.
Tomm
It is Ignatiev who has pushed the Liberals to the left, as DIon has no vision yet of where to steer the ship, Ignatiev trumpets the course.
They play a ruthless game, prepared to sacrifice a limb to save the body. They know they will not win the next election, so they abandon the fickle centre and focus on a ripe target: the shriking NDP - destroy them, and only the lunatic Greens remains to contest the left. Then return to battle the Tories for the center.
I don't know...if Charest wins big time in Quebec we'll have an effective Harper majority because the BQ won't want to to under any circumstances force an election that could lead to their decimation in Quebec. I think Harper would only then want an election if he is polling consistently over 40%.
Ferd:
Not sure why you call the Greens "lunatic".
Their climate change proposals are pretty much the same as the Liberal ones (yes we all know the Liberals are lying, but on paper the policies are similar), and the Green position on other issues has, in the past, been far more centrist than the NDP. And, as I mentioned before, lacking the union ties and virulent anti-Americanism of the NDP, the Greens have far more room to grow in the fickle centre, as you call it.
Granted, Elizabeth May is more of a leftie than the previous leader (whose name escapes me...Jim Harris, I think?) but I can't imagine her proposing that Canada negotiate with the Taliban, for instance.
Warren Kinsella (musings) claims that on line polls leave out certain groups, such as the elderly, (I'm 61) and so are inaccurate.
Like, do ya think that maybe, just maybe, the major media "select" those people they give the "best" answers ?? Ya think ??
Have you ever seen a list of those polled ?? Let alone the answers given ??
Oh for God's sake.
To be fair, I'm thrilled that it appears that Liberals are finally getting their asses handed to them.
That said...
- That green vote, while we all acknowledge will not come to fruition, I honestly have no idea where it will go. You could make an argument for any of the big two and a half, and I'd believe it.
- The Liberals will never win 71 seats, the Conservatives will never win 160. There are far too many stupid people living in Toronto to have this happen.
- As for this majority garbage, let me put it like this. The way things are set up now, barring some huge realignment, the Liberals are guaranteed 90 seats right off the bat. Ditto the Conservatives. The Bloc gets 40, the NDP 12. 232 out of 308 seats are out of play right away. A party to win a majority would need to win 55 of those 76 remaining ridings.
Not happening.
Warren Kinsella, of course, is dead wrong, as most of the time: I know plenty of people in their 70s who regularly read blogs, use the Internet, etc.
Kinsella thinks that anyone older than him is useless and dysfunctional - total BS.
Online polls are just as effective as, perhaps even more effective than, traditional polls conducted by phone or by questionnaire.
"Online polls are just as effective as, perhaps even more effective than, traditional polls conducted by phone or by questionnaire."
I agree. They're all completely useless, and have no bearing whatsoever on reality - even if I do happen to agree with them, like the polls that Angry and Coyne referred to, or the great whumping that Suzuki is getting on the poll on his site.
Hmm, wouldn't the fact that online polls necessarily leave out a large portion of the elderly population be even better news for the Conservatives, since Tory support is typically higher among seniors?
Based on Kinsella's analysis, it could mean that the Tories are in fact closer to 45% than 40%!
I don't think this is the case, but a poll that excludes elderly people would skew the numbers in favour of Liberals, whereas a poll that excludes the 18-34 crowd would skew numbers in favour of Conservatives.
COmpanies pay good money for online polls. While the suspicion is understandable I think they hvae worked our most of the kinks.
Perhaps Darrel Bricker, of Ipsos I believe, will pop his head into the room and provide some insight.
Sigh, I hate to burst everyone's bubble. But the newest poll from ipsos reid (March 3) has the following:
CPC: 36 (+0)
LPC: 32 (-2)
NDP: 15 (+2)
BQ: 8 (-1)
Green: 8 (+0)
In Ontario
LPC: 39 (-2)
CPC: 36 (-2)
NDP: 15 (+2)
Green: ??
In Quebec
BQ: 34 (-4)
LPC: 29 (+4)
CPC: 18 (-3)
NDP: ??
Green: ??
If conclusions are to be drawn from such minor changes, they would be that the ATA debate has slightly reduced Liberal and Conservative support in Ontario (not surprisingly) while bumping up the LPC in Quebec at the expense of the Bloc. Thus an election, due to the trend of governments leaking support during the campaign, would still be a toss-up.
I am thinking the poll numbers from IPSOS are more in line. That said, the longer Dion keeps taking body blows as Stephen Harper defines him, the quicker the numbers will go into Tory Majority country.
There are two trends that are being seen right now. One is that people are seeing what Dion is, and they are not impressed. He is NOT doing well in Quebec, and as the rest of the country watches that, they realize maybe if he isn't liked in Quebec, why should the rest of us have any time for him?
The second trend is Harper is constantly defining the plain of battle,and while Dion went after Harper on how green he can be, he is finding out Harper can shift gears on the fly and redefine himself. The disastrous green plan that Ambrose brought out has now been overhauled and now Dion cant get any traction as Harper points out Dion didn't do anything when he had the chance. Canadians are seeing Harper is willing to do something. Novel idea that, a Prime Minister that will react and actually DO something to solve a problem. We haven't had one of those in a lot of years have we?
Here ya go Ace, the Hindenberg graphic on the LPC's Wiki entry:
The Liberal Hindenberg
Don Johnson, yes the PM could go to the GG and ask for a dissolution, and she would pretty much have to grant it. If Harper asked for it within a year of the election, then she might have a case for saying let's ask Dion to test the House.
But it's been over a year since the election, so the GG is basically trying to judge where public opinion is now, with a Parliament that represents public opinion from 14 months ago. Best way to tap into that public opinion needed for legitimacy is an election.
Only once has a GG refused a dissolution request, and Lord Byng had plenty of reasons not to grant it. First, the government had not lost the confidence of the House (it was about to); second, the official opposition actually had more seats than the governing party; and third, it was only months after the last election. Even with all those factors in Byng's favour, Mackenzie-King campaigned against him in the election and won because of it.
A GG refusing a dissolution request from our PM now would put us into an even worse constitutional crisis, and would plainly break the policy of non-interference.
It would only hurt Harper for him to call without making the case that the government's agenda is stuck in the current Parliament, or that a great national question is hanging in the air and must be decided nationally. I think he can make either case quite easily.
Scott Blurton, I think the trend is rather that the Liberal party loses support during an election campaign period, while the Conservatives gain it.
See Tories (or centre-right forces) in every election, with the special exception of 1993, since 1984.
Happened with the Harris Tories as well in 1999.
Testing...
Every budget in a minority parliament is a proxy federal election.
Harper's playing hardball to win that campaign. What he's winning is the right to present a 'majority' budget in a minority parliament.
The third time (2008 budget) will be the charm.