Turnout in recent Quebec elections:
2007: 71.3%
2003: 70.4% (record low)
1998: 78.3%
1994: 81.6%
1989: 75.0%
1985: 75.7%
1981: 82.5%
1976: 85.3%
1973: 80.4%
1970: 84.2%
1966: 73.6%
1962: 79.6%
1960: 81.7%
3/27/2007
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3 Comments
I don't see it as a big issue, frankly. The election was held at the end of March when a lot of snowbirds are still down south.
And I had to trudge through a heavy rain to go vote. I'm not surprised others didn't bother. If you were either a Liberal or PQ voter there were ample reasons to be less than enthused about the vote.
So the turnout was a tad lower than it has been in the past - I think it's a non-issue.Erika1
The turnout could have been lowered by the fact that well before election day it was clear that no referendum was going to take place.
I just thought I'd re-post this here. I'd be curious to know what AC's response would be.
Coyne off the mark, for once
It's not often that I disagree with Andrew Coyne, but this is one of those times.
Essentially, he's hyping the fact that Harper's support for Charest bought him only a slim minority, and is using voter turnout numbers to dismiss the notion that this is a realignment election.
These are the numbers he's using to demonstrate his point:
Turnout in recent Quebec elections:
2007: 71.3%
2003: 70.4% (record low)
1998: 78.3%
1994: 81.6%
1989: 75.0%
1985: 75.7%
1981: 82.5%
1976: 85.3%
1973: 80.4%
1970: 84.2%
1966: 73.6%
1962: 79.6%
1960: 81.7%
His argument is that voter turnout was low, and therefore the result was the function of traditional voters for the two main parties simply staying home this time out.
But by his own admission, voter turnout is actually higher than last time, an election which yielded a Liberal majority and only 5 seats for the ADQ. Meaning that if Coyne is right and supporters of the two main parties stayed home in droves, the only way voter turnout could have GONE UP overall is if there was a surge of new voters casting their ballots for the ADQ.
If that is truly the case, it would only serve as further proof that this is a realignment election.
Not to mention the fact that the average turnout in the last six Quebec elections is roughly 75.4%. Which means Monday's turnout wasn't exactly out of the ordinary.
Additionally, it should be acknowledged that when Paul Martin was booted out of 24 Sussex, Jean Charest had been essentially left for dead. The result for him may not look great now, but if you asked him a year ago he probably would have gladly taken it.
Now admittedly, I share some of Coyne's misgivings about Harper's "French Kiss" with Quebec. Although there have been no real short term negative implications of the "Quebecois = Nation" motion, I still foresee potentially disastrous consequences from that motion in the long term. And as a Westerner, I can't deny that the massive buy off of Quebec in the last budget turned my stomach.
But that doesn't mean I'm going to deny the clear positives that result from this election. There is evidence that Quebec is backing away from the federalist/separatist alignment of the last three decades and moving toward a more traditional right/left alignment. Meaning that perhaps fear of a looming referendum will be replaced with a genuine debate on real issues.
One can hope anyway.