Spring, when Crocuses bloom
Manitoba election called for May 22: My gut says this is going to be closer than people realize. The Tories have a bright, young leader, there's a mood for change in the province, and the Crocus scandal has finally started to bite -- as God knows it should.
But what do I know? Any Manitoba bloggers blogging the campaign? Show yourselves!...
UPDATE: This probably means no federal election this spring -- or this year?
UPPDERDATE: Pegblogger Inside Outsider, aka Comments Closed (say, now there's a thought...) already has the complete results, riding by riding. The decision desk makes it 29 NDP, 27 Conservative, and 1 Liberal. More Tobabloggers here.
4/20/2007
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29 Comments
I'm not a blogger, but I used to be involved in the PC's before I moved to Calgary...
Hugh McFadyen is a smart, capable guy, and the party has benefited from good fund raising and an absence of Steven Fletcher...
Doer is right tp call this now. In a year he'll be taking on water like the Titanic regardless of the result... and it will be time to retire. He and his personal popularity (bolstered by the softball treatment he gets from the Wpg Free Press and CJOB) has been the only thing keeping the NDP from an extreme left shift in the province.
This (and Dr. John Gerard's inept leadership of the Liberals) has kept the usually liberal-minded Winnipeg voters from fleeing the NDP. Most people in Winnipeg vote Liberal and when they don't, their vote splits 2-1 NDP-Tory.
Keep an eye on the South Winnipeg ridings of St. Norbert, Fort Garry, Riel and Seine River ridings. The NDP has weak MLA's there and if the PC's are doing well (and the Lib's run credible candidates for once - i.e. not a university student) they have a chance. The PC constituency associations and candidates of Riel and Fort Garry were strong in 03 and they still lost (Seine River and St. Norbert were messes) and it will be critical to get the vote out.
4 more seats will not a majority make, but don't count on Brandon West or some of the Interlake or East-man ridings along the trans-canada as NDP safe seats....
Still 25 seats were waaaay better than our internal polls suggested in '03 (more like 12) so McFadyen will do well to get 25.
As a aside... (and former resident)... Riel is the bell weather... It's split between two Federal seats - St. Boniface and Wpg South which is Liberal and Tory respectively - and is held by an extremely weak MLA who didn't win her home poll...
If the Tory's win it, they win. If not... they don't.
The Crocus scandal would and should sink any government but likable Gary Doer will win again.
The first fellow posting did a great job describing the scene in Manitoba, but PC voters like him, and me, and so many other free enterprise types have moved out of Manitoba, and won't be there to help change the government.
It will be a Doer win, much more than an NDP win, or PC loss.
Thanks Anon #2 and I agree that the election is totally in Doer's hands, not his party's...
New city counselors Jeff Browaty and Scotty Fielding hold some hope in some of the more forlorn ridings for the PC's... too bad they aren't candidates this time around...
I've been told that the NAV Canada stats on Winnipeg's emigration has been stunning since 1999 (Doer's first win).
While the city has seen positive net migration since then, the income level per person leaving the city has dwarfed that of the new Winnipegers...
Can anybody confirm this? Though I suspect that a drive down the road known as Salter/Isabel/Memorial/Osborne/Dunkirk/Dakota would only do just that...
I shudder to think what damage a weak economy and the do-nothing NDP would do with a substantially weakened tax base to the provinces prospects... The NDP is already boasting about new office buildings going up... too bad its 100% on the public purse strings...
One more thing... the Tory's in Manitoba HAVE to stop comparing the province to their neighbour to the west and saying they are falling behind. Manitoban's look down on Sask (rightly or wrongly) but McFadyen should say that that's the NDP's game and that being the better of the two isn't good enough.
Its a global playing field for talent and being the best prairie province east of Alberta and north of the 49th doesn't cut it anymore (if it ever did)... instinctively Winnipegers know this (and its one of the reasons we are leaving in droves)... he has to raise the bar and ask why can't Manitoba be better than it already is (weather and mosquitoes excepting)?
As a side note... that may sound like an oxymoron to those who've never been there and like to pile on...
i'm not Manitoba-savvy by any means, but i do remember that, on the federal scene, Manitoba had been consistently more resistant to the Reform / Alliance wave than any other western province, and it wasn't until after the PC-Alliance merger that Manitoba really started warming up to the Conservatives, as BC started cooling off from the euphoric Alliance showings of year 2000, ironically.
therefore, i've always thought that maybe Manitoba has more in common with Ontario than the west. yeah.
If I ever figure out a way to be south in winter, earn and taxed in Alberta, with summer at Lake of the Woods, I'd be a Manitoban again.
Manitoba has 14 seats, 8 of which are Cons.
In the grand scheme of things, does this really affect whether Stephen Harper calls an election, as Dan Baril suggests in his linked blog?
I guess I don't get it. Is there a law that I'm unaware of that precludes Harper calling an election in a similar time frame?
Otherwise, I think Baril's musings are subject to which way the wind is blowing, in that particular minute.
Just because he kissed and told with May, what credibility does he really have?
They'll be playing hockey in Hell before Conservatives win Churchill or Winnipeg North Centre.
Manitoba was half under water in '97 and Chretien called an election.
Hi Anon #1;
You mention that the PC's are better off now without Stephen Fletcher. Why do you think this is the case? I remember him being a blowhard back in the day, but I didn't think he actually hurt the party...
KRZ:
Stephen Fletcher's story is one of the triumph of the human spirit and that of one person's ability to turn a bad deal of the cards into something positive... And I have the utmost respect for him because of it...
But, before he became an MP, Stephen needed to shut his yap and keep internal party issues internal. Though he did have valid points, his guerrilla war with Stu Murray (then the leader of the provincial PC's) wasn't constructive. However, running to the press as the president of the Manitoba PC's anytime he didn't get what he wanted wasn't what was needed and certainly alienated me. He became one of the many problems rather than a part of the solution...
Harper has said all along that he wants to avoid a spring election. Pundits everywhere say he is lying.
Every evidence of Conservative election readiness is held up as proof that he really is planning an election rather than a pragmatic precaution to prevent one.
If anything, I see the government bending to the point of breaking in not making Afghanistan withdrawal and Kyoto implementation confidence votes.
And now we see pundits making excuses for why there won't be a spring election.
At what point do the pundits admit the evidence shows they were wrong and Harper was honest.
-Pete E
The 2003 Manitoba election was the most boring one in my lifetime. I hope that the following issues are discussed in this election (but they probably won't be):
- Senate elections (for 2009 and beyond);
- Fixed election dates for provincial elections (with June as the fixed election month); and
- Raising the basic personal exemption for provincial income tax to at least $16,000.00 (approximately equal to a minimum wage employee's annual earnings).
No election. Because PEI is set to pop (and maybe Alta., who knows?), and then there's Ontario this fall. If Harper calls one kow, he blows any good will he's managed to pick up since he's come into office. Although I disagree with Dan Baril. Harper peaked two weeks ago. And so its time for the oppos to tell Harper to bend over and accept C-30. He won't let the gov.fall over that; he already chickened out over Afghanistan.
anon # 1:
"Keep an eye on the South Winnipeg ridings of St. Norbert, Fort Garry, Riel and Seine River ridings. The NDP has weak MLA's there and if the PC's are doing well (and the Lib's run credible candidates for once - i.e. not a university student)"
you woulnd't be refering to the lad in charge of "strategic communications" for the federal office of the leader of the opposition would you??? ;-) golly gosh, watch out for st. norbert, dr. jon is running the longest serving school trustee in manitoba history...very impressive (eye roll).
anon #2:
"The first fellow posting did a great job describing the scene in Manitoba, but PC voters like him, and me, and so many other free enterprise types have moved out of Manitoba, and won't be there to help change the government."
not just free enterprisers, but anyone with a modicum of ambition to ascend beyond a life of retail/service sector employment ;-). still nice to go to lake of the woods in the summertime though.
anon #3:
"Salter/Isabel/Memorial/Osborne/Dunkirk/Dakota"
you're missing Route 52 as well...the peg's good old insanely stupid grid with as many proper names for one street as most cities have for all streets.
steve l:
"therefore, i've always thought that maybe Manitoba has more in common with Ontario than the west. yeah"
aside from selkirk and a couple other "rural" (read backwoods) areas, manitoba identifies with ontario more than the great mythological amorphous "West"...although sharing some prarie social gospel populism.
kvarkle:
"Though he did have valid points, his guerrilla war with Stu Murray (then the leader of the provincial PC's) wasn't constructive."
fletcher does seem quite abrasive, especially as UMSU pres, but stuart murray needed to be run out of town and tarred and feathered for ineptitude and the way he handled john loewen, who so disloyally showed that crocus was not jsut the ndp's wart...hello filmonites ;-). the crocus scandal really showed the nasty underbelly of the winnipeg establishment's' modus operandi as a bunch of small town crooks.
anon #whatever the goddam number pick a frickin pseudonym already:
"Every evidence of Conservative election readiness is held up as proof that he really is planning an election rather than a pragmatic precaution to prevent one"
pass the koolaid i'm thirsty.
doer will sail to victory on personal popularity and a lack of reason to get rid of the gov't. the status quo may not be sexy, but there is not the stench of moral decay and corruption that followed the filmon gov'ts departure from office. nor have there been any serious bunglings of policy. the liberals will remain totally and utterly irrelevant. the problem for manitoba tories is they are going up against one of the most popular politicians in the country, whose folksy charm has no equivalent in canada.
canuckistanian:
I, Kvarkle, was Anon's #1 & #3 - sorry I couldn't get blogger to accept my password...
I don't know who Gerrard has running this time around, I do know that in '03 he didn't have the most credible slate of candidates, or a full one at that... "forlorn hopes" would be a kind description...
Not that he's credible himself, the only reason he still has the job is that no one else wants it...
Yeah I'm missing Oakpoint/route 90/Kenaston too, only in Winnipeg do you have a "highway" with 20+ unsyncronized stoplights on it and a speed limit of 50 km/hr...
Fletcher? Abrasive? Yeah, he has to stop calling Japanese people "Japs" too, that stuff went out somewhere between Nagasaki and Martin Luther King's assasination... Stephen was a problem long before the PC's were led adrift by "Stu-Who?"... He lost the nomination to Heather Stephanson for Filmon's old constituency, Tuxedo, and was more concerned with his own advancement that his responsibilites in the party (apparatus, membership, finances). He "left" before Stu did and the party finances took a turn for the better not long after that.
I don't think Manitoba's election factors into Harper's plans. Those that think it does overestimate the importance of Manitoba's 14 ridings...
At most he can gain 2 seats (Winnipeg South Centre and St. Boniface but those are forlorn hopes), at worst he loses 1 (Rod Bruinooge). Not enought to make a material difference. If they run concurrent elections, it will just cause the Liberals to work on the Federal campaign and ditch Gerrard and that won't help either Harper or McFadyen, but its still not enough to sway the decision either way.
very funny kvarkle ;-). i've been having problems with the new blogger too. i agree with your analysis federally, although i am leaning more towards either status quo or bruinooge lose...neville or simard losing would be a huge victory for the tories.
Canuckistan, I'm from western Manitoba and I can tell you that everyone west and south of Winnipeg id's with the rest of the Prairies much more than with Ontario.
As for the outmigration unless Manitoba becomes the next boom economy the kids are going to leave anyway. They want to sow their oats and see what else is out there. Once they have seen abit of the world they are more than likely to come back if there is something there for them. Right now I do not see what Doer has done to entice them to come back.
The only thing that I really know is that this is going to be one nasty nasty election. Main reason is the Dips have nothing to run on except Doer's image (what ever the heck that is)
NDP Play the Low Road from the get Go!!! Star NDP Candidate for Southdale Erin Selby is the epitomy of all things bad in poilitics. She has proven on Day 1 of the Election Campaign in Manitoba that she is ill equipped and not a serious contender for public office. She should go back to reading script and playing "happy smiley" and leave the art of politics to other more serious candidates - of both genders. Her outrage for comments made by Jack Reimer, a man of integrity and honour and whom if you knew even an iota of what he does and represents would respect for not only his approach but also his commitment to the good people of Niakwa/Southdale. The very public offense which Mz.Selby chose to share is a sign that the NDP will stop at nothing to "make issues out of nothing" and take the low road. Pointedly, the "talk-a-lot-do-nothing" NDP were set to ask for a public apology from the PC's for Jack Reimer's comments that Erin Selby, a former TV Host on the lowest rated TV station in Manitoba and in fact a woman, was nothing more than wall paper at a recent announcement by the "Tax and Spend" NDP Leader Gary Doer from Southdale. Jack Reimer, the PC representative of the past two decades, was on mark as the NDP are trying to make something out of nothing in the riding that they do not have a hope in winning. I mean affluent young families want good quality, honest representation not tokenism. They have received good quality representation under Reimer and Liberal Herold Dreidger before him. Say what you want about Jack but he has done his work, made everything in the constituency a priority had Perogy Wednesday every week of his tenure and made a point to stay in touch. An example of his commitment came to me in 1992. At the time I lived in the riding and was the Provincial Liberal Riding Association President. I found it hard not to like the man but above all I respected his commitment. Upon my graduation from U of M and my acceptance at Law School he sent me letters of congratulations. I phoned and thanked him as I thought it was a class act and nice touch. Mz. Selby's attempt to accuse the man of making a poor gender related comment, which was in fact the truth, that she did not nothing other than provide a smiling happy face for Doer. Mz. Selby is just plain wrong and brings politician into very low morale ground with her shameful comments. Shame on you NDP and shame on you Erin Selby and I hope the voters of Southdale see through your thinly veiled facade.
This shows how grasping at straws the NDP are.
This Manitoba Blogger will attempt to cover it but I’ll bet the pro death, pro affirmative action, pro sunday shopping party will win,...
This MAD right wingers first thread on the "why bother" MB Election 2007,
http://marginalizedactiondinosaur.net/?p=186
Cheers Andrew.
It might not be so hard if I could just be a team player and ignore the issues but I got into politics based on issues I left the Manitoba pc's because they supported affirmative action and the CPC because they went pro death.
I remember when Stewart came up to me once at a rally and called us all good conservatives, I know I he was the one I'm not sure of.
Hardly the reasons I joined the Reform party in 1993.
The sad irony is that these are policy areas where some polls say that most canadians agree with me.
So I don't feel alone.
Would it not make sense if the majority support an issue to listen to them or are msm's that good at snowing "We the people"?
Most canadians think olson should be hung now try to vote for a party that will do it.
The MSM's don't want it so it will not happen. Right Preston.
The Manitoba PC's are really Liberals, which is why Manitoba Liberal Leader Jon Gerrard has all the political charisma of a 12th century Carthusian monk.
Manitoba politics is more akin to a contest between Hip Hop musicians both trying to demonstrate how bad their jail house tats and street cred are.
A huge yawn from here in Manitoba.
The NDP will likely eek out a narrow victory and Manitobans can come to enjoy the fruits of the high marginal tax rates and whining
for Federal Transfer Payments which have become our new provincial emblem.
The Tories will win. Here's why:
1) Underestimated strength: most people assume Doer's party is the favorite. They're wrong. Doer is well-liked, but the same polls that put him in the stratosphere put his party in the margin of error against the Man Tories.
2) Crocus: It's a scandal, and it involves money. These days, nothing is a scandal unless it involves money.
3) Voter rational ignorance: i.e., I'm guessing few Manitobans have focused on Crocus yet, because there was no real need to do so. Now there is.
So, you have a government weaker than most realize, and the potential for horrible damage just as the voters are beginning to pay attention. This is a toxic combination for the government.
It will lose. Premier Hugh is coming. You heard it here first.
I agree that this will be a real close election. The NDP holds seats like Seine River and St. Norbert that they have no business holding. The Cons will also pick up a number of others without much of a fight. If Doer runs a campaign like last election, puting everyone to sleep, (which worked last time), he will lose. If he re-creates himself and gives people a reason to vote for him once again he'll prevail.
I don't think Crocus will have much effect on the election outcome. Ask your average Manitoban -- OK, narrow the field, your average Manitoban voter -- to tell you what the scandal is, and you'll get a blank stare. Even most casual political junkies tired of the story long ago. I think it's a non-starter.
Still, I agree with D.J. that the Tories are being underestimated right now.
People don't elect opposition parties, they defeat governments. Doer and the NDP have managed to avoid major controversy and have given people no real reason to vote against them.
On the other side of the card, the Tories have been absolutely useless in opposition - despite the comments of the PC-spinners on this board, Crocus has failed to resonate with the public as an issue, largely because the McFadyen Tories could not make the issue stick. The Tory caucus is the weakest it's been in generations - this bunch could not inspire an ice cube to melt in summer.
Barring a major catastrophe, Doer will be returned with a reduced majority, winning 31 seats to 24 for the Tories and 2 for the Grits. A bloody civil war between Hugh McFadyen and Ron Schuler will preoccupy the Tories for much of the next two years.
Schuler is a spent force. He took down Stuart Murray and got trounced by McFadyen. Ron Schuler had his chance and lost.
browner:
your subjective affection for jack reimer aside, calling the ndp candidate wallpaper was classless...even if not intended as sexist. as for the "tax and spend doer gov't", seen as they have reduced income tax more than any other manitoba gov't, i'm not sure how one can 'logically' characterize them as "tax and spenders". nevertheless, tax rates in manitoba are abysmal.
don mitchell:
very true, outside of winnipeg, in the rural areas much of manitoba (particularly the southwest) identifies with the mythological amorphous "West". in franco-manitoba, northern manitoba and winnipeg, that is not the case imho.
dj:
if the tories were to fight the election on the crocus scandal, they would be running against themselves. the tories and dippers are both dirty on that file.
the ndp will lose some seats, but there is no "throw the bums out" movement coalescing. as such, the ndp will remain in power.
There's nothing mythical or amorphous about the West. It's entirely real. Now "franco-manitoba", that's a myth.
You've obviously have never been to St. Pierre-Jolys, St. Agathe, St. Jean, St. Malo or any of those other french towns...
I have been greatly enjoying the comments here, as it seems that this is the only place I can find any intelligent dialogue about this election.
I am a Liberal in St. Vital, and given the competition, I see little chance of Nancy Allan being unseated.
However, as a Liberal, and I know this may sound odd, I am *praying* that Gerrard and his monkey side-kick get the boot this time around.
There are no words to describe how utterly sick I am of Dr. Jon Gerrard and his complete failure as leader of the Manitoba Liberal party. I don't know if there is something in the water in Tuxedo/River Heights, but for whatever reason there is a little cabal of provincial Liberals who think he is just the greatest thing to happen to the Liberal party. But to all those in the Manitoba Liberal party executive, I have a little cold water for you. He is a LOSER!!! And as of May 22 he will be a THREE TIME LOSER!!
As Leo Amery said to Neville Chamberlain in May, 1940 "In the name of God, go."
The damage that the Manitoba Liberal party has sustained during the shambolic tenure of Jon Gerrard is, I fear, beyone repair. I worked fairly closely with Dr. Gerrard when he first became leader in 1998 and, like so many at that time, were utterly put off by his incorrigibility and arrogance, as the public-housing incident on April 26th so brilliantly underscored.
This party is so utterly adrift in a sea of medocrity that I feel it will be forever relegated to the fringe of Manitoba politics for a very long time. Indeed, given the difficult time the PC's had in trying to find a decent slate of leadership candidates, it is all too apparent that the leadership of the Manitoba Liberals is a job that no one in their right mind could possible ever want... well with the exception of Kevin Lamoureaux, whose grip on reality I have often questioned.
So once again, the Liberals have rounded up a collection of hopless candidates and will procedd to offer them up for public humiliation. I only laugh to keep mself from screaming...
In the meantime, I will be checking this forum frequently and look forard to your comments.