Popular vote in recent federal elections in Outremont.
September 21, 2007
9/21/2007
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7 Comments
You made the liberals blue, the conservatives yellow, and the NDP red. Way to confuse.
Oops. Good point. Now fixed.
I agree with...
Ian MacDonald's summation...
'Cause everyone now wants to be a tough guy...
If the Three Amigos of the opposition think they're dealing with another wimp like Paul Martin in Stephen Harper, they're in for some rude times ahead.
OK here's a few questions, which might be a little hard to address given all the rote point-scoring that seems to give everyone here so much joy.
Why has the Liberal vote declined in Outremont every time the people there got a chance to vote after 1997?
Note that the underlying vote, for other parties, has bounced all over hell's half acre. Is the Liberal vote a product of all that other action -- essentially an accident -- or is it the most interesting thing that's happening in Outremont? Is Outremont -- affluent, multi-ethnic, with a pretty even split among franco and non-franco voters -- any kind of proxy for the rest of Quebec?
I have no answers to any of this. Feel free to ignore these questions and indulge in more of the same old rote team-jersey point-scoring, 'cause that's so fun.
Paul, it's a good question but I don't know if the answer is all that complicated.
In '00, the decline from '97 was relatively modest, bouncing back to its '93 level. Insofar as an explanation is required, the Tories were up a similarly modest amount; that was the election where Charest as PC leader had a positive effect on most Quebec ridings to some degree.
In '04 you could, I suppose, blame sponsorship, plus it seems that the Former Member in Good Standing of the Broad Rainbow Coalition-turned-loyal-Liberal may've been a bit of a drag on the Liberal ticket.
In '06, of course, Liberal fortunes were down almost across the board, and the CPC was able to grab some support from the Libs and BQ. And the story in '07 has been told all over the place lately.
The real change has been with the NDP, going from < 15% in '97 to about 20% in both '04 and '06. But even here, I don't think it's a big puzzle. I'd have to check, but I vaguely recall that the NDP ran pretty good candidates in Outremont in '04 and '06.
In particular, I seem to remember the NDP's man in '06 was a fairly well-known sort (though I can't remember his name for the life of me, and I'm not going to cheat by looking his name up elsewhere before finishing this post) who was seen as a relatively good catch for the NDP, although he wasn't at Muclair's level.
As for whether Outremont is a harbringer ... I suppose it's possible, if the NDP can attract some good candidates, and if the Liberals under-perform in their urban base. But I'm not sure both of those things will happen. I wouldn't be surpised to see Muclair hang on to his seat, but I doubt he'll have much in the way of coattails when it comes to electing New Democrats in QC.
(I do think you could see a higher percentage of the vote for the NDP next time, as I think Layton will get a bit more play in the Quebec media, and the party will have a higher profile. I'm just not sure it'll be enough to knock off too many of the remaining Liberal seats.)
These are good questions.
The last one - Outremont = proxy for all of Quebec is an obvious no.
Also, is the riding of Outremont "affluent"? That's my question. Sure, the town of Outremont is, but I thought Outremont the town is a small part population-wise, of Outremont the riding. The other sections of that riding, Cote-des-Neiges and Mile End are not properly described as affluent.
"I have no answers to any of this."
Hope springs eternal from our very own eternal optimist.