Tea-leaves
There is a clear loser tonight, and it's ... the Bloc. The Liberals did poorly, to be sure, but not far off what they did in 2006. In Outremont, the supposed catastrophe, they are down from 35% to 29%, thanks in large part to a very poor local organization. Otherwise their vote held, albeit at historically low levels.
But the Bloc! In Outremont they lost 18 points, from 29% to 11%. In Roberval, too, they're down 18 points, 45 to 27, while in Ste. Hyacinthe they dropped 14 points, shaving a 31 point margin of victory in 2006 to just 5 points. On average, taking the three ridings together, the Bloc has seen two-fifths of its vote disappear, in just eighteen months. That's a catastrophe.
UPDATE: But of course the bad news for the Liberals is that none of that Bloc vote is coming their way. In Outremont, it went overwhelmingly to Thomas Mulcair, the former provincial Liberal cabinet minister turned federal New Democrat (though how many voters thought he was still a Liberal would be interesting to know). In the other two ridings, the Bloc vote swung just as hard to the Conservatives.
9/17/2007
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Interesting point about the Bloc vote. I don't think you'll be seeing much chat about that even in La Presse, at least if Joel-Denis Bellavance is writing all the articles (I believe he said--with evident (and unsurprising) glee--that the Libs were now 'in hell').
Re: the surge in the Tory vote, my theory is this: the movement is made up of those bloquistes who are really and have always been 'des bleus', i.e. those who follow authority and orthodoxy wherever it may lead. The Tories are a) in power and b) saying all the right nationalist things. Those people never really voted Liberal unless there was a very strong Leader (Trudeau, Laurier). Also, the stuff about niqabs probably didn't hurt in Hérouxville 2.x.
I agree that Outremont's probably an aberration. But Dion's *got* to make the Liberal party more than just not-Harper.
While I can see your point Andrew, I don't think we can blame the media from calling this a catastrophe for the liberals.
No matter how you break down the percentages, voter turn-out or campaign on the ground, the fact is this: losing Outremont is the symbolic equivalance of the Conservatives losing in Red Deer. Its news. Big news.
Although I hate to play along with the Jane-Taber-media-frenzy that tends to follow this kind of news, we can't blame Jane if she happens to put Stephane in the "NOT hot" category this week on her gossipy show.
Coyne is right. The Bloc's collapse (two years ago, would you have beleived they could lose Roberval?!) is the biggest news. And note that the candidate that won in St. hycainthe isn't white (Ève-Mary Thaï Thi Lac).
It's unfortunate that something like skin colour should matter, but Quebec is going through a Xenophobic phase, and the Bloc, rather than riding the anti-coloured wave, is fighting against it by being open to visible minorities. It's a admirable stand, but it will lose them the (very large) xenophobic vote in Quebec.
Welcome back!
About frickin' time.
The riding organization in Outremont got screwed by Stephane Dion. Don't blame them, especially since Mulcair took a lot of their feet on the street over to the NDP.
Thomas Mulcair won because he was a local name with a local machine that followed through with the support of a national NDP team. However the national NDP team respected the facts on the ground.
Not so with the Liberals. Dion's treatment of the riding organization was much like a tenured prof's treatment of a grad student: dismissive, condescending, and curt.
Outremont is a given: so give.
Dion didn't give a damn about facts on the ground and his people in Ottawa are now pointing fingers and laying blame. The Hadasim, normally a Liberal lock, sat on their hands. They account for 10% of the total vote count in a general, just about the margin victory in this by-election. According to a Jewish newspaper, many Hadasim are thinking of bolting to the Tories.
Frankly, Dion's brain-trust makes The Board look like pros.
Andrew
Glad you posted an update, because your Bloc analysis can't be seen in isolation. Bloc in freefall, and yet the Liberals don't benefit WHATSOEVER, in fact the totals are still down. What the Bloc failure tells me, that not only are the Liberals not the first choice of Quebecers, but they aren't even the second or maybe third. That is seismic stuff, and people will remember recent Quebec polls that foreshadowed the 2nd choice hurdles. The Bloc failure screams out that the Liberals aren't even part of the conversation.
This mattered in Outremont, and signals a long-term trend. Votes once considered safe Liberal turf worthy of ignoring are moving to the Conservatives.
That some significant portion of the voters thought they were voting Liberal when voting for Mulcair just isn't credible. Between Mulcair and Layton's tandem appearances all over the riding, the ubiquity of blindingly orange signs, and Quebec voters' comfort with splitting their provincial and federal votes, Mulcair's NDP affiliation wasn't in doubt.
That they were electing a candidate whose popularity somewhat eclipsed his party label is much more believable.
I agree with Érik that the lion's share of the off-island Bloc vote is composed of bleus. However, the substantial chunk of Bloc support, organizationally as well as electorally, that identifies with the left is harder to account for. If Harper swiftly amputates the Bloc's right arm, the remaining die-hard sovereigntists and the left may duke it out for what remains of the party; as the Bloc's coalition falls apart, nationalists may simply abstain from federal politics and the union/left section could maintain the Bloc as their own boutique electoral project.
Alternately, if Layton's overtures to disaffected centre-left Montreal voters and Quebec organized labor start paying off, and Mulcair lures a stable of reasonably high-profile candidates to the NDP banner (Montreal city council is full of acrimony these days, so there may be plenty of known quantities interested in jumping ship), the Bloc rump would be more nationalist in character and quite small. In that scenario, Outremont would look less like an anomaly and more like a bellwether.
This most 'excellent adventure' started at the Liberal convention.
This whole fiasco that the Liberals find themselves in is as a direct result of having Gerard Kennedy and his followers walk over to the Dion camp in order to crown him. Look at the big picture ...Gerard Kennedy is the one who stuck a knife in the Liberal party!
Let's see how Harper milks this. I suspect he will be even more inacessible to the media, forcing them to keep writing about Liberal in-fighting.
This stuff is more interesting than dredging up old quotes by Harper about the Belgium model of decentralization.
Quebec's going through a xenophobic phase?
how's that exactly?
the only Bloc candidate to win was a pur laine in a rural riding, right?
Oh, I see where you get "Quebec's going through a xenophobic phase":
its got to do with the debate over religious schools and keeping an entitlement for one religious group and excluding all others. That's where it comes from...
Andrew, just when I remove you from my favorites you return again. Glad you're back.
I'm sorry, but this is a disaster for Dion, but more so because the candidate was hand picked by him. That's what makes this defeat doubly stinging for Dion.
CJ, I think Harper "milks" this by recommitting us to Afghanistan in the Throne speech, and if that passes then an early confidence motion to extend the mission again. And dares the opposition to bring him down over it. I wonder if the timing of Karzai's request for Canada to stay is a coincidence, but somehow I doubt it...
What I'm finding particularly interesting (i.e., annoying...) about all this is the general preponderance of the MSM to comment in terms of "Dion - Loser" and "Layton - Boy Wonder".
The fact that Harper just swept up, as WK points out, 36% of the overall vote, clobbered the Bloc in their own backyard, and came a close second in another race, seems to being merely a passing note.
This would be the same Stephen Harper upon whose political acumen dumping on has become a veritable sport with the MSM.
The very same Harper whom, as little as 24 months ago had anyone suggested he'd be kicking butt in Quebec, would have had people down on the floor in tears laughing.
The same Harper indeed who now looks infinitely capable of extending his minority government, should he so choose, to full term Oct./2009.
Who has his main political rivals in a virtual state of terminal political apoplexy.
All of which begs the question: When will the MSM finally get around to giving this guy his dues???
And further...
For months and months now...ad ifinitum...all we've hearing about from the MSM is the political disaster looming for Harper because Quebec troops are on their way to Afghanistan.
And when they weren't chirping endlessly about that, it was about how the very, utmost, definitely the biggest, issue in Quebec is Kyoto and the environment.
So, God help Harper, he's gonna bite the big one if he's looking for his majority from Quebec voters.
The usual suspects in the MSM have been wrong so many times now regarding Harper (forget about their atrociously pathetic record on Preston Manning), you get to wondering how some of these people get to actually earn a living in this racket.
They seem to collectively be suffering what I might term, "Fonz Syndrome".
As in...
"Okay, we were wrrrroo....
*choke*
...we were wrrrrooon...???...
*ahem*
We admit we made a missstttaaa...
*cough*
...a miissstppphhhh...???...
...How about them Leafs, eh?"
Occurs to me a little less sanctimony and a lot more humility is in order.
I can't help but think that BQ voters in Outremont saw a chance to defeat a Liberal and jumped on the NDP bandwagon. They have indeed declined off the island of Montreal but in Outremont this feels like a blip (mostly anyway).
Imagine how bad it would have been for the Liberals if they hadn't of picked up the Green vote. If it weren't for the May-Dion Pact the night would have truly been a disaster.
On a more serious note. Yeah, the NDP win in Outremont was because the anti-Liberal vote rallied behind Mulcair and the Liberals didn't bother coming out. Probably won't repeat in a general election.
The other two ridings probably told the Conservatives what they already knew. They're going to increase their gains in Quebec in the next election. If they hold the fort and pick up a few more seats elsewhere, they may squeak out the majority.
The Bloc losing its support is old news.
The dominant issue for some time has been whether it would be the Liberals (under Dion) or the CPC (under Harper) who would capture the loss in Bloc support.
Interesting how you seem to avoid the more recent (and significantly more pertinent) issue.
Could it have something to do with the fact that you have made it known from the outset your high regard for Dion???
I'd love to see you come forth and tell us how you were so very wrong about Dion. I guess we'll have to hear about more tangential issues instead.
I was interested to see that the Green Party had so little traction given all the talk about how environmentalism is the big issue in Quebec.
Sure, I realize that Outremont may be special in that Mulcair is a former Environment Minister but the pollsters are telling us that the Greens are doing well across Canada.
Personally, I think most people who tell pollsters they support the Green Party are just parking their votes. As we see in these by-elections, when the voters enter the polling booth, they vote for someone else.
1. Outremont will return to the liberals in the next general election. Google "phonse faour". Jacko is a loser before this "win" and still is a loser. If he tries to put more effort into que as a result of this fluke he is an even bigger loser.
2. The biggest losers are the Liberals - not the Bloc.
Sure, the BQ lost the most support, but they have a quasi-separatist core that will not abandon them even with the Lucien Bouchard-like leanings of the current quebec wing of the CP.
Should the CP have another Bouchard-like melt-down in QUE, they will get to pick up the remnants for pennies on the dollar. The BQ needs to play rope-a-dope for the next couple of years until the next confederation/constitution conflagration happens (and it will).
The liberals however, are decidedly - almost unanimously - not the choice of francophone federalists and in-betweeners (read: extortionists)- the CP has run them off the field. The 'ethnic' island that is the west end of the island of Montreal is all they have left.
The LPs cute little gambit of putting a native-son 'intellectual' (a term I use very disparagingly) a poster child of many in the press - AC included - for being what is their vision of a successful politician (and proof that they should stay out of politics) and a crappy hologram of their last messiah - PET - has failed utterly.
And with it any chance of the LP returning to power for a generation.
And if the NDP could get a real, sane, respectable leader to replace Jacko, that leader, with the support of Stephen Harper could eliminate the LP altogether, much as the UK Liberals were destroyed at the beginning of the last century.
Canada is more and more cleaving along rural and suburban vs. urban lines (whether you have a single unit home or shop at a supermarket will be key 'tells' as to what your affiliation is). The NDP rinsed of the union affilation - not the LP - is, in the long run, the better fit for the urban half.
3. Is it rude to say that those in the press who swooned over SD (AC, WK et al) are losers too on the blog of one of them?
The "the BQ are the biggest losers" meme seems to me to be so much weak pro-canada spin.
The staunch trudeauopian, strong-federal-canada supporters of whom AC is amoung the most prominent and certainly the most vocal of late, had one dog in this fight and that was SD.
And that dog is on his way to the vet and he will be leaving the clinic out the back door in a garbage bag.
I'm very glad to see you back :)
Dion has been hugely disappointing as LPC leader. I thought he would be so much better: a principled leader who wouldn't use over-the-top rhetoric, but instead would put forward his vision for the country. Man, was I ever wrong! The guy's a disaster. He's a freakin' robot, set permanently on anti-Harper mode!
You're way to quick to write off the NDP in Quebec, Andrew. I mean how many people actually predicted they'd win one seat?? Not many.
The Dippers key, IMO, would be for them to target the social democratic Bloc vote, by essentially making the same case to them that Harper has to those willing to vote for the CPC: If you care about getting things done, defending & promoting your values & maintaining a proud Quebecois identity within a united Canada, then come vote for us. It work for the CPC in 2006 & could work for Jack! next go around
Oh BTW, glad to see ya finally back too, about time
mcguire:
If history is anything to go by, the NDP's win will be reversed in the next general election.
The NDP is very cash poor (to say nothing of the deficit between the ears of its collective leadership) and they would be much better advised to spend their limited resources in the major anglo urban centres - Halifax, Saint John, Moncton, Southern Ont., Wpg, Edmonton (yes edmonton), Regina and the lower mainland.
Quebec will remain barren territory as long as Mr. Layton is at the helm.
The only thing that could make this night sweeter is Jason Cherniak running in the riding.
Cue the sycophant theme music.
“ …. Quebec is going through a Xenophobic phase, and the Bloc, rather than riding the anti-coloured wave, is fighting against it by being open to visible minorities. It's a admirable stand, but it will lose them the (very large) xenophobic vote in Quebec.”
ChuckerCanuck @ 9/18/2007 already rebutted the ridiculous statement above.
Here’s someone else who is raising some questions:
http://www.torontosun.com/News/Columnists/Copps_Sheila/2007/09/16/4500532-sun.php
“Anyone who fears extremism should take a hard look at the upcoming Ontario election.
In less than a month, voters will be asked to pronounce by referendum on a crazy proposal to redraw the province's electoral map. The outcome could reshape Canada's political landscape forever.
The proposed changes would open the door to more power for political and religious zealots. What do the burka wearing Muslims, evangelical Christians and the ultra-orthodox Jews have in common? They are each inspired by the righteousness of their beliefs and represent a small minority in their fervor.”
Such questions being raised somewhere other than Quebec, you say? Impossible!
I'd love to see NDP pick up more Montreal votes from the Bloc and Libs. I wonder what ridings other than Outremont it could really happen in though. Outremont seems to have become very heavy with Anglo hipsters these days.
Notre Dame de Grace? maybe even Pierrefonds Dollard where there are lots of Muslims now? ultimately, even St Laurent if Dion weren't there? Lasalle Emard?
Still no sign of breakthrough in outer 416 for Layton - I'll start believing NDP strength when i see that.
The other thing I'd love to know is how Harper's polling in 450 suburbia outside Mtl. St Hyacinthe is a bit different, more rural and nationalist than those places..
Mysteries mysteries. I agree Layton will have a hard time holding on to Outremont in a general election.
*Layton* could never hold Outremont for his party, but Thomas Mulcair certainly might and probably will. Yes star candidates usually don't shine as bright as their hype, but Mulcair is as close to a veritable and tangible star as one could imagine.
I agree that the NDP have very little growth potential in Quebec and don't have a chance in any other seat there, but somebody as universally (in anglo-Montreal anyway) popular as Mulcair will probably keep Outremont as the Quebec equivalent of Acadie-Bathurst.
In that New Brunswick riding, NDP MP Yvon Godin has held on to a traditionally Liberal constituency since 1997 with strong wins on the basis of his own personal popularity. The seat is his for as long as he wants it, but it is doomed to fall back into Liberal hands once Godin leaves politics.