Miniblog
January 31, 2006

C-Series RIP

Bombardier shelves C-Series project: This is funny, in a bleak, bitter kind of way. Even with the taxpayers picking up, what was it, a third of the tab, they still can't make a business case for it. Another way of looking at it: your elected representatives, at every level of government, were lining up to throw hundreds of millions of dollars at this dog*, when even the company wasn't wholly sold on it. Best part: it spares the Tories the aggravation of killing the deal. Oh, sorry, that was the old, "ideological" Tories. Rather, it spares the Tories the embarrassment of carrying on with the deal. INNOCENT QUESTION: Just because they aren't actually building any jets, does Bombardier have to give back the money? *Not that the merits of the C-Series are the issue. Coyne's Fork on this is remorseless and absolute: If the project is uneconomic, it shouldn't get a subsidy. If it's economic, it doesn't need one. BY REQUEST: Here's my most recent column (I think) on la folie Bombardier. Key line: "The willingness of other countries to subsidize their aerospace industries ... makes the case against subsidizing Bombardier, rather than for it." BONUS: Here's some others.

Tobin's out

So we're down to just Rae, Ignatieff, Cauchon, Dion, Dryden, Rock, Stronach, Brison, Bevilacqua, Volpe, Coderre... plus whoever else pops their head up in the next six months.

THIS JUST OUT: Paul Wells has all the latest non-candidates. GERARD WHO: The Dan Report's dogged campaigning for Gerard Kennedy has paid off: he now has a narrow lead over Stéphane Dion in first round balloting on that nifty transferrable ballot poll. Dion takes it in the 10th round, though. REALITY CHECK: CalgaryGrit sees eerie historic parallels:

I'd like everyone to remember a certain leadership race which featured the following candidates: Stephen Harper Belinda Stronach Tony Clement That's about the equivalent of a race featuring Manley, Belinda, and Andy Mitchell. Lord, Harris, MacKay, Prentice, Strahl ... the list of high profile candidates who took a pass on the Tory leadership goes on and on. And guess who is Prime Minister today?



So, to continue the parallel, the Liberals just have to wait for the Tories to sink under the weight of a massive corruption scandal, a vicious internal civil war, and an armwaving, untrustworthy blowhard of a leader. Then they're in like Flynn. UNREALITY CHECK: Only now are people starting to appreciate the enormous contributions made by ... the strutting bantam in epaulets!

As he prepares to leave office on Monday, Canadians everywhere owe Jean Lapierre a great deal of thanks for this. Thanks 100% to him, and him alone, support for independence is now down to the levels it was at...when he first took over as Martin's Quebec lieutenant in January 2004.



Do I sense a draft? (UPDATE: So let's see: Stronach, Rae, Lapierre... If any Liberals run, you'd have the complete set.) SURREALITY CHECK: "He's 82, and far from through!" The Draft Hellyer campaign is already picking out slogans.
January 30, 2006

Paging Dr. Dion

As the panicky casting about for a Liberal saviour continues, Chantal Hebert reminds everyone of a basic strategic truth. If the party is to have any future, it must rebuild in Quebec. That means first understanding why it did so poorly in the province it has always regarded as its birthright. Hint: it wasn't just the sponsorship scandal:

The subtext of this Liberal rout is also a massive rejection of Martin's uncertain handling of the Quebec file. By election day, some of the province's staunchest federalists could no longer stomach the prospect of having to fight a possible referendum under his leadership. With mediocre antennas in the province and, in too many cases, minimal understanding of the language, Martin's so-called board spent the past two years flying blind in Quebec. Perhaps their biggest delusion, one shared by the outgoing prime minister himself, was the notion that Martin's status as an adopted Montrealer would trump his lack of a coherent Quebec message... Regaining the trust of Quebecers will be a key part of the upcoming Liberal leadership campaign...



And who can regain their trust? Who among the putative leadership candidates has a coherent Quebec message? Whose handling of the Quebec file has been notably free of uncertainty?

Whoever the Liberals put forward will have to lead the party back to the field of ideas. Over the years, the Liberal party has allowed itself to be dominated by political operators...



Yes, yes, a candidate of ideas...

Regardless of its ultimate outcome, no Liberal leadership lineup could be complete without at least one Quebec contender...



... a Quebecer, yes, but...

But if the Liberals are to turn the page on one of the most undistinguished chapters in their history, they will have to field Quebec leadership candidates who are not living reminders of their recent misdeeds.



... a straight arrow, yes, but who?

Former justice minister Martin Cauchon — who has so far been the most eager to claim the Quebec spot in the succession lineup — is burdened both by past personal ties to some of the players in the sponsorship affair and his role as a Chrétien warrior.



So that leaves...

If the Liberals are to move past those episodes, they may have to look beyond Cauchon, perhaps to the brainy Stéphane Dion, to help them get there. If this is to be a Liberal year when talking heads matter more than political animals, a rare time when participating in the race could be as important as winning it, Dion would be a good fit for this campaign.



This is big. The knock on Dion has always been that he's radioactive to the province's political class, especially its media. If a commentator of Chantal's stature is taking his candidacy seriously, it may mean the times have caught up with the man.

Tobin to bow out next?

Canadian Press:

(CP) Frank McKenna has become the second high-profile Liberal to bow out of the race to replace Paul Martin. McKenna's decision Monday followed last week's announcement by former deputy prime minister John Manley that he won't be a leadership candidate.
And Brian Tobin may soon follow suit.
A source close to the former Newfoundland premier said Tobin is not "chewing at the bit" to return to politics either.
"(He is) consulting family and friends and asking himself many of the same questions as McKenna."
The reluctance of the three, all considered among the frontrunners to succeed Martin, suggests the leadership of the Liberal party is not the prize it once was.



Dyathink?

Belinda Grewal

Mr. Dosanjh testified that Mr. Grewal was extremely excited about the crossing of the floor of Belinda Stronach, that morning, and how it was now easy for him to be appointed to Cabinet. However, Mr. Grewal’s account was that Mr. Dosanjh suggested a Cabinet position or diplomatic post for him and a Senate seat for his wife... [I]f Mr. Grewal sought rewards from Mr. Dosanjh or Mr. Dosanjh offered rewards to Mr. Grewal to act in a way that would alter Mr. Grewal’s decision on whether and how to vote ... this would clearly fall within the parameters of ... the Conflict of Interest Code for Members of the House of Commons... Either of these would amount to an extremely serious breach of the Members’ Code.



-- from the Report of the Grewal-Dosanjh Inquiry, Office of the Ethics Commissioner.

During the weekend’s clandestine discussions, it was Peterson who insisted Stronach receive a cabinet post. "This was no backbencher," he said. "She was a high-impact political player who deserved her chance to play." It was serendipitous that the Human Resources and Skills Development portfolio, containing all of Stronach’s signature issues—education, empowerment of labour, a competitive, knowledge-based economy—was lying fallow. "It was beautiful the way the whole thing came together," said Peterson.



-- from "The Belinda Stronach Defense, Toronto Life, February 2006. Peterson boasts of obtaining for Belinda what the Liberals swear they would never think of offering Grewal. Joan Tintor limns the remarkable similarities between these two negotiations: use of third-party intermediaries, involvement of Tim Murphy, fear of "separatism" as cover story, etc. Differences: one was taped, the other wasn't. One was investigated, the other wasn't. Similarity: nothing was done about either. POSTSCRIPT: The Toronto Life piece is a must-read. I can truthfully say it is a masterpiece of its kind.

Atomic Energy Costs a Lot

"You say it's a massive, really expensive way to boil water, but it also makes toxic waste that lasts for millennia? Who do we make out the cheque to?"



Agenda item for a Conservative government: cleaning out the Crown deadwood, starting with AECL. Fun facts:
  • "Federal subsidies to AECL since its inception in 1952 amount to $74.9-billion of today's federal government debt, or about 12 per cent of the entire outstanding amount."
  • "The provinces that rely on AECL technology, Ontario and New Brunswick, have the only energy systems that need continual injections of government subsidies, er, investment, to stay solvent. They also have the fastest rising electricity rates in Canada."
  • "If instead of being dumped into the black hole of AECL, that $75-billion of taxpayers' money had been invested in the Canadian economy, Energy Probe contends, it would be worth $194.6-billion today."
  • "Since 1952, during federal Liberal governments, AECL has added $4.313-million a day to the national debt. During Conservative administrations it averaged $2.554-million a day."
  • A la recherche du keg parties perdu

    A misspent Liberal youth:

    It was only when we got to Windsor for the convention that I realized just how much the Martinites had invested in the campaign -- literally. With the money I'd scraped together, I'd rented a couple of cheap yellow school buses to transport my supporters. My opponent's voters turned up in a fleet of Greyhounds. The bulk of them rounded up from a couple of high schools, they had everything -- food, board, delegate fees, liquor -- paid for. Some of the kids were informed they wouldn't get a ride back to Toronto if they didn't vote the right way.



    Adam Radwanski recounts just how petty it got.

    McCanna

    I go for lunch and all heck breaks loose: Frank McKenna says he's not running. Naturally it's all about more time with the family, don't have the fire in the belly, etc. Nothing at all to do with the ghosts of Meech, getting mau-maued up and down the country over abortion, the Grits' deeply dysfunctional family etc. What I'd like to know is, not just how this decision was reached, but when. I'd be willing to bet that as of last Wednesday, when he announced his resignation as ambassador to Washington, he was all set to go. Something changed in the last five days. What, I wonder? So: does Manley jump back in the race now? Or who does this benefit most? Who inherits his supporters, his henchmen, and his money? It's too bad. He's a good man, McKenna, and I'm sorry he won't be running.

    Closer still

    Below is some idle speculation on how many MPs are likely to vote for and against gay marriage. But why waste your time on my uninformed prattle? (Possibly a question of more general relevance. - ed.) The folks who follow this for real make it even closer than I'd guessed. Marriage Vote.ca, on the pro side, has been keeping a running tally. It now has 155 MPs either certain or likely to vote for gay marriage (that is, against reversing last year's decision), to 153 against. Two votes. Meanwhile, the confusingly similarly-named Vote Marriage Canada, representing the antis (if not the aunties, or possibly just the antsy), are crowing that "almost 60% of candidates endorsed by Vote Marriage Canada were elected or re-elected as Members of Parliament."
    January 29, 2006

    Same-sex math

    The conventional wisdom is that a free vote on gay marriage -- ie going back to the exclusively heterosexual definition, reversing last year's free vote -- would be sure to fail. In fact, I was a proponent of that view until about five minutes ago. Think again:

    A new vote on the issue of same-sex marriage, when and if it is held, could be decided by 67 new MPs elected to Parliament on Monday, 36 of whom are members of the Conservative party. Last June, Parliament voted in favour of amending the definition of marriage to include same-sex unions by a margin of 158 to 133, with 17 MPs absent or abstaining. Forty of the MPs who were in favour of granting marriage rights to gay couples were defeated or replaced on Monday, along with 27 MPs who voted to retain the traditional definition. Of the defeated or retiring MPs who voted "yes" to same-sex marriage, 21 were replaced by Conservatives, nine by members of the Bloc Quebecois, seven from the NDP, two Liberals and one Independent. Of the "no" voters who did not return to Parliament, 15 were replaced by Conservatives, six by New Democrats, five by Liberals and one from the Bloc.



    If you've done the math*, you'll know what this means. If all of the newcomers vote along party lines -- or, more realistically, supposing the number of incoming Tories in favour of gay marriage is roughly the same as the number of incoming Liberals, New Democrats and Blocquistes against it -- and assuming the number of abstentions remains the same, then the 25 vote margin in the last vote would be reduced to ... seven. And that's assuming André Arthur, the independent, votes in favour of gay marriage. If I'm wrong, then we're down to five. It could be a very near thing. *If you need the math done for you, here it is: YES: 158-40+19+12=149 NO: 133-27+21+15=142 CAVEATS: Two quick points from the comments suggest it may be even closer than that. Some of the abstainers in the last vote may have been Liberal dissenters, who would be free to vote No without fear of retribution this time. So, too, some Liberal cabinet ministers who were whipped into line last time may break ranks this time. Need to know who the abstainers were, and who if anyone replaced them in this election. Ditto the cabinet. MORNING AFTERTHOUGHT: This may just be the trial run. If how MPs vote on gay marriage is a predictor for how they'll vote on abortion, there'll be a hot time in the old town tonight. NOT THAT IT MATTERS: They can have the vote, but even if they do try to restore the "traditional" (ie discriminatory) definition, it's almost certain to be overturned by the courts. Not certain, but almost certain. And Harper has said he would "never" use the notwithstanding clause on this.

    Five Liberals = 1 Conservative

    Speaking of urban-rural splits, here's a trivia question: Which MP was elected with the most votes? Answer: Jason Kenney, in Calgary Southeast, with 44,987 votes. That's more than Liberal MPs Wayne Easter (Malpeque - 9,779), Shawn Murphy (Charlottetown - 9,586), Roger Valley (Kenora - 9,465), Larry Bagnell (Yukon - 6,487), and Todd Norman Russell (Labrador - 5,737) received, combined. In fact, 17 of the top 20 votegetters were Conservatives, while of the bottom 20, 14 were Liberals. If there's anyone dependent on the rural vote, it's the Grits. Electoral reform, anyone? (Thanks to reader Paul O for flagging the Elections Canada data from which this is drawn.) MOREOVER: Conservatives also tended to win by the most lopsided margins. 14 Conservative MPs, all from the West, won by margins of 50 percentage points or more over their nearest competitors. Not 50%, as in 12,000 to 8,000, but 50 percentage points -- as in 70% of the vote to 20%. Monte Solberg, for example, took 35,670 out of 44,751 votes cast in Medicine Hat -- nearly ten times as many as his nearest competitor. Upside: talk about your safe ridings. Downside: Lotta wasted votes... MOREUNDER: Mind you, Conservatives also eked out some of the narrowest victories as well. Tony Clement (Parry Sound-Muskoka), Rod Bruinooge (Winnipeg South), Pierre Lemieux (Glengarry-Prescott-Russell), Luc Harvey (Louis-Hébert), Rick Dykstra (St. Catharines), and Mike Allen (Tobique Mactaquac) all won by a margin of less than 1 percentage point. How close a thing was it for the Conservatives overall? The Tories won by 21 seats, 124 to 103. A swing of 11 seats, then, marks the difference between a Tory plurality and a Liberal one. Take the 11 closest races where a Tory beat a Liberal. The margins of victory in these races sum to 8981. If just 4502 voters in those ridings had voted Liberal instead of Tory -- well, we still wouldn't be looking at a Liberal government, in my view, since I don't think the Grits could have commanded the confidence of the House. But they would have at least had bragging rights Actually, depending on how you look at it, it's even closer than that. The 11 closest Tory wins of all include two ridings where they beat the Bloc. The total margin of victory in these 11 ridings comes to 6592. So a switch of 3307 Tory voters to one of the other two parties would have been enough to cut the Tory lead to one seat: 113-112. Had another 772 voters in Barrie voted for the Liberal, Aileen Carroll, instead of the Tory, Patrick Brown -- bringing the total required to 4079 -- then Paul Martin would today be trying desperately to cling on to power, instead of planning his retirement. 4079 voters made the difference. Out of 14.8 million nationwide. Still think your vote doesn't count? FURTHERMORE: Much of the controversy over the "urban-rural split" centres on how you define a big city. "Vancouver" is supposedly a dead zone for the Tories, but only if you define Vancouver to exclude its outer suburbs -- in which case it's only a medium-sized city. A commenter on Small Dead Animals (relayed by way of YYC) has, it seems to me, settled the argument. Tallying the seats won by each party in the nine largest cities, using the best known definition -- StatsCan's Census Metropolitan Areas -- the overall standings work out to Liberals 60, Tories 57 (Bloc 28, NDP 15). End of story? Not quite. In the big three, the Grits lead 55-12. In the next 6, the Tories win 45-5. There's your split. LESSISMORE: I, Ectomorph has some more thoughts, and data, on "Canada's rotten boroughs." It turns out that 10 Liberal ridings equals 2 Tories. MOREISLESS: Overall, it took 43,314 votes to elect each Tory MP (including votes for losing Tory candidates), to 43,468 for each Liberal. No discrepancy, for once (see: First past the post, distortions arising from). The real unfairness is in the relative fortunes of the other two parties. The NDP, with 2.6 million votes, gets 29 seats -- an average of 89,338 votes per seat. The Bloc Quebecois, with fewer than 1.6 million votes, gets 51 seats, or one seat for every 30,432 votes. MOREORLESS: The folks at Fair Vote Canada have some fresh inequities:

    The chief victims of the January 23 federal election were: Western Liberals: In the prairie provinces, Conservatives got three times as many votes as Liberals did, but won nearly ten times as many seats. In Alberta, the Conservative Party won 100% of the seats with 65% of the votes. The 500,000 Albertans who voted otherwise elected no one. Urban Conservatives: The 400,000-plus Conservative voters in Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver should have been able to elect about nine MPs, but instead elected no one. The three cities together will not have a single MP in the governing caucus, let alone the cabinet... Green Party: More than 650,000 Green Party voters across the country elected no one, while 475,000 Liberal voters in Atlantic Canada elected 20 MPs. Federalists and nationalists: As usual, the voting system turned entire regions of Canada into partisan fiefdoms, rather than allowing the diversity of views in all regions to be fairly represented in Parliament and within each national party... “How can anyone continue to think that this voting system gives us good geographic representation,” said Wayne Smith, President of Fair Vote Canada, “when it fragments and divides our country like this?”... Had the same votes been cast under a proportional voting system, Fair Vote Canada projected that the seats allocation would have been approximately as follows: Conservatives - 36.3% of the popular vote: 113 seats (not 124) Liberals - 30.1% of the popular vote: 93 seats (not 103) NDP - 17.5% of the popular vote: 59 seats (not 29) Bloc - 10.5% of the popular vote: 31 seats (not 51) Greens - 4.5% of the popular vote: 12 seats (not 0) However, Smith emphasized that speculation should be tempered. “With a different voting system, people would have voted differently,” he said. “There would have been no need for strategic voting. We would likely have seen higher voter turnout. We would have had different candidates - more women, and more diversity of all kinds. We would have had more real choices.” “The voting system really matters -- a lot -- and the system we have is simply not acceptable in a modern democracy.”


    Like, heteroskedastic, man

    If you stare very closely at this graph, for a long time, it will blow your mind... What does it mean? Who cares? Just look at it. Oh all right: Read Political Staples' analysis, if you must. But it sort of kills the buzz...

    Horton speaks!

    Folk hero Horton (The Headshaker), of Tim and Horton fame, tells how he took down the Martin gang -- only in your soaraway Star:

    Selfishly, perhaps blindly, I only thought about the money ($500) and the free meatball sandwiches I got for showing up at the diner that day. It didn't occur to me that when my face was saying, "Paul Martin, are you kidding me?" it would make the nation say, "Paul Martin, are you kidding us?" Polls from SES Research and Strategic Counsel have shown that the Liberals' numbers started to tank when my commercial hit the air. Which is why there ended up being three cuts of that commercial and my face ended up in print ads. A monster had been born and he had my beautiful face. What I'm trying to say is, Paul Martin, I'm sorry. I never thought my face would take down a government. The fact is, you were entitled to a fair fight and you didn't get one. Harper had a secret weapon, a weapon that stares at me in the mirror every morning.



    Turns out he's an actor and comedian by the name of -- get this -- Pat Thornton. Can you believe it? Thornton -- two letters off! ALSO: See this useful account of the impact of the debates. Hint: think Kennedy-Nixon.

    Thanks, it's been fun

    Four days after being re-elected as the MP for Portage-Lisgar, Brian Pallister tells the PM-in-waiting not to consider him for cabinet, as he is thinking of leaving federal politics to run for leader of the Manitoba Progressive Conservatives.

    "I like to be up front about things," Mr. Pallister said of his decision to tell Mr. Harper that his time on Parliament Hill could soon be ending.



    Pity he wasn't as "up front" with his constituents. Black Rod is livid, and I can't say I blame him. CORRECTION: It seems there was some discussion of it beforehand (see the comments). So I take back the "up front" crack. Still smells, though.

    Ca marche, ca roule!

    Fascinating piece on the changing political landscape in Quebec in the weekend Post, including this quote from Maxime Bernier:

    The 20th century was the century of the state. The 21st century has to be the century of the individual.



    The more I think about this Bernier-for-Finance idea, the more I like it. There is clearly something happening in Quebec, North America's most over-taxed, over-indebted, over-governed jurisdiction. The ADQ bubble of 2003, the Bouchard manifesto, and now the Conservative surge: the province is signalling that it's ready for change, provided it comes in the right package. The opportunity here isn't just to flip another 20 seats into the Tory win column. It's to change the subject: to move Quebec firmly off the federalism-separatism axis, and onto a debate about the size and role of government -- not which state, but how much state. Bernier's appointment would send a shockwave through the province. His role, very clearly, would not be to bring home the butin, but to bring the enterprising spirit of the Beauce to the province at large -- to make Quebec into Le Grand Beauce. (La Grande Beauce? C'est la Beauce, mais le Québec...) L'AFTERTHOUGHT: One thing's for sure: the Bloc is in a mess of trouble, down 7 points from the last election and likely to fall further, without Alfonso and friends to kick around. Their PQ cousins, meanwhile, are stuck with a commitment to hold a referendum in the next mandate, a promise made when they thought victory was assured but which now must resemble an anvil around their necks. Remember how dire, how desperate the prospects were for the separatists before Adscam broke? Le Blog Polyscopique does. L'AFTESTTHOUGHT: And André Arthur for Heritage minister! FOUS D'HARPER: Then there's this absorbing analysis of Harper's supporters by Navigator chairman Jaime Watt. Here's the passage that struck me most:

    To our surprise and that of our Quebec partners, Leger Marketing, for some voters Stephen Harper has moved beyond the 'my kind of non-politician' status he has in English Canada. To some in our groups he has become an object of deep affection... It does seem to represent the beginning of an affair between some deeply disenchanted Quebec voters and the new Prime Minister.



    An affair? With Captain Bloodless? Ice Cold Steve? The Prime Minister of the Chess Club? Can this be happening? MEMEDATE: UnsolicitedAdvice seconds the Bernier nomination -- then, true to its name, goes on to select the entire cabinet.

    Markers

    Harper tells U.S. to butt out on plans for defending Canada's Arctic:

    "I want to address one other question before I go," Harper said Thursday in response to an unasked question as a lengthy session with reporters wound down.

    "I've been very clear in the campaign that we have significant plans for national defence and for defence of our sovereignty, including Arctic sovereignty. It is the Canadian people we get our mandate from, not the U.S. ambassador."



    Alberta health-care reforms must obey medicare rules, says Harper spokesman:

    Alberta can go ahead with all the health reforms it likes - so long as it stays within the rules of the Canada Health Act, says a spokesman for the incoming Conservative government.

    William Stairs was responding Friday to suggestions by Alberta Premier Ralph Klein that some of the province's reforms might violate the federal legislation...

    Stairs said Harper made his position clear during the election campaign and reaffirmed it Friday: "Mr. Harper has said changes should be made within the Canada Health Act."



    Harper draws the line

    None of the people co-ordinating Stephen Harper's transition to prime minister were involved in his election campaign, and none will be involved in running or lobbying his government.

    Harper's choice of transition team suggests the Conservative leader has learned from Paul Martin's example that it's a big mistake to rely on the same group of ultra-partisan advisers to run both campaigns and government, blurring the line between political and public interest.

    In setting up his government, Harper appears to have recognized the value of independent advice from experienced people who have no personal stake in how the government is structured or staffed.


    January 28, 2006

    Centrist campaign

    For reasons known only to itself, the footer at the bottom of the page no longer centres properly. I've obviously tripped over something in the course of tweaking the layout today, but I'm blowed if I can think what. It's within the < body > tags, so it should have the same attributes as the rest of the page. Anyone have any thoughts? Stylesheet is here. THANKS, EVERYONE: The margin "auto" was the simplest fix. Still hunting stray divs. (UPDATE: Found it.)

    The commissioner's selective ethics

    Today's column. Just to pick up on the point made in the first graf: at the time all this was going on, a lot of sophisticates rolled their eyes as if to say, what's the big deal? People have been crossing the floor -- and been rewarded for it -- for eons. Shapiro has at least made clear that this sort of thing is not on -- that if it ever was "politics as usual," it should stop.

    That's what makes the rest of his report so baffling. Or leave Grewal aside. We know that Belinda Stronach's defection took several days of negotiations to arrange. And sure enough, the day she crossed the floor, she was given a cabinet post. Are we to believe there was no connection between the two? What were they negotiating, if not the precise "reward" she would receive? What did she bring to the table, but her vote on the confidence motion? Why was that not also the subject of an inquiry? -- AC

    Give Bernard Shapiro credit for one thing: his inquiry into the Gurmant Grewal affair has established, as a general principle, that it is “an extremely serious breach” of the conflict of interest rules to offer any “reward or inducement” to a member of Parliament in exchange for crossing the floor. Otherwise the report is a travesty from start to finish.

    To read the report, you might come away thinking the only person who did anything wrong in the whole affair was Mr. Grewal himself: not the former Health minister, Ujjal Dosanjh, and not the former chief of staff to the prime minister, Tim Murphy, his negotiating partners for several long sessions last spring. Certainly that is how it is being spun: Mr. Dosanjh is now threatening legal action against unnamed persons, although he allows he is in a mood for “forgiveness.”

    First point: Mr. Shapiro did not vindicate Mr. Murphy, because he was not a subject of the inquiry, indeed “could not be.” This in itself is debatable. Under the Parliament of Canada Act, the commissioner is required “to administer any ethical principles, rules or obligations .. for public office holders,” including “a person, other than a public servant, who works on behalf of a minister of the Crown or a minister of state.” Mr. Shapiro instead preferred to rely on that section of the Act confining him to investigating “ministers of the Crown, ministers of state and parliamentary secretaries” for breaches of the Conflict of Interest Code.

    Whether it is possible to “administer” the code as it applies to ministerial staff without the odd bit of “investigating” is I suppose a judgment call. Perhaps the law should be amended, Mr. Shapiro says, but “I am not in a position to unilaterally exceed my legislated mandate.”

    Fair enough. Except that’s what he does for the rest of the report. Mr. Grewal is convicted of offences that appear nowhere in law, but which violate Mr. Shapiro’s personal sense of what is “appropriate.” Mr. Grewal’s surreptitious taping of his conversations with Mr. Dosanjh and Mr. Murphy, he writes, “is neither an illegal act nor a contravention of a specific Rule of Conduct.” However, “I believe such conduct is inconsistent with the Principles of the Code,” notably that which requires members to “fulfill their public duties with honesty and uphold the highest standards so as to avoid real or apparent conflicts of interest.”

    Again, fair enough -- except, why was the same standard not applied to Mr. Dosanjh? Mr. Shapiro finds that Mr. Dosanjh did not offer any “specific” reward to Mr. Grewal: the basis for Mr. Dosanjh’s claims of vindication. Yet he also finds that the case “presents all parties to the events in an especially unattractive light,” that “they at least appeared to have very little interest in principle,” that they engaged in “a conversational dance in which each was trying to ascertain what, if anything, the other was offering.” Yet only Mr. Grewal is held to account for this “inconsistency.”

    What “specific” offence, then, did Mr. Grewal commit? Mr. Shapiro is unsure. Either he intended “to actually seek such a reward or inducement,” or he intended “to entrap Mr. Dosanjh and Mr. Murphy into offering” one. Mr. Shapiro has no way of knowing Mr. Grewal’s intent either way, you understand, but it must have been one or the other. Or rather, it might have been. “If Mr. Grewal had sought to entrap Mr. Dosanjh into offering him a reward for changing his vote, he would have induced Mr. Dosanjh into committing an extremely serious breach” of the Code. “This clearly would have been a reprehensible conduct.” [Emphasis added.] This is groundbreaking stuff: Mr. Grewal is guilty of a hypothesis.

    In Mr. Grewal’s case, Mr. Shapiro’s inability to read his mind leads to a finding of guilt. In Mr. Dosanjh’s case, the same inability leads to exoneration. If he engaged in the same conversational dance as Mr. Grewal, it could only have been because Mr. Grewal was trying to “entrap” him. Now, entrapment is a subtle legal concept, and difficult to prove. The victim must be pressured or persuaded to do something that would never have occurred to him otherwise. How does Mr. Shapiro know this?

    How, when it is not even clear that he listened to the tapes. “[F]rom the outset of this inquiry,” he writes, “I wished to proceed on the basis of obtaining the direct testimony of all of the parties involved before deciding whether it would be necessary to rely on the tapes as primary evidence.” In the event, he “did not consider it necessary … to rely on the contents of the tapes in reaching my conclusions.”

    Of course, we can’t be sure. But if Mr. Shapiro did listen to the tapes, he would have heard Mr. Dosanjh say, at one point, “you have to be able to say that I did not make a deal. That’s very important. That’s why these kinds of deals are not made in that fashion.” He would have heard him say at another that “nobody will make you totally blunt promises,” but that “if the chief of staff says that certain conduct ought to be rewarded in due time that trust is kept 99.9% of the time.”

    He would have heard him say, “I’m sure rewards are there at some point, right. No one can forget such gestures but they require a certain degree of deniability.” And then he would have heard him laugh.

    But that’s just a hypothesis.

    January 27, 2006

    He's a scary right-wing extremist! He's on the far right of the American far right! He's a pro-life religious zealot!

    He's the Liberal frontrunner. UPDATE: Or maybe not...

    Friends and allies of Frank McKenna say it's no sure bet that he will seek the leadership of the federal Liberal party. McKenna, the 58-year-old former New Brunswick premier, turned businessman, turned diplomat, announced this week that he is resigning as Canada's ambassador to the United States, triggering intense speculation that he will contest the race to replace Paul Martin as Liberal leader. But his confidants in New Brunswick, where he was premier from 1987 until 1997, say McKenna is not motivated by the same ambition that was evident in the early days of his political career. They say he is weighing questions about whether he could not only win a leadership race, but gain the trust of the country.



    And, of course, spending more time with his family. IN OTHER LIBERAL POWER STRUGGLE NEWS: As the speculative fever rises -- Gerard Kenney's candidacy has been confirmed and debunked six times in the last 24 hours -- TDHStrategies comments:

    Does anyone in the Liberal party understand anything else but leadership contests anymore? Is that the only thing that this once great institution has come to represent - the struggle for power?


    A guide to the new Canada

    The new regime is likely to end the recent drift toward decriminalization of soft drugs, so visitors will still have to consume marijuana with discretion. On the other hand, Liberal proposals to apply special taxes on junk food are also dead. For frequent pot users, it sounds like a wash.



    Sister Colby Cosh explains it all for you. (via Mark Collins)

    Bush lied!!!!

    ... about the no weapons of mass destruction, I mean.

    The man who served as the no. 2 official in Saddam Hussein's air force says Iraq moved weapons of mass destruction into Syria before the war by loading the weapons into civilian aircraft in which the passenger seats were removed. The Iraqi general, Georges Sada, makes the charges in a new book, Saddam's Secrets, released this week. He detailed the transfers in an interview yesterday with The New York Sun. "There are weapons of mass destruction gone out from Iraq to Syria, and they must be found and returned to safe hands," Mr. Sada said. "I am confident they were taken over." Mr. Sada's comments come just more than a month after Israel's top general during Operation Iraqi Freedom, Moshe Yaalon, told the Sun that Saddam "transferred the chemical agents from Iraq to Syria." Democrats have made the absence of stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq a theme in their criticism of the Bush administration's decision to go to war in 2003. And President Bush himself has conceded much of the point; in a televised prime-time address to Americans last month, he said, "It is true that many nations believed that Saddam had weapons of mass destruction. But much of the intelligence turned out to be wrong."


    SO YOU'RE wondering, haven't there been an awful lot of stories lately about female high-school teachers having sex with their under-age male students (that is to say, children)? Just how many have there been, anyway?

    Wonder no longer.

    Fun fact (unless you're Paul Martin)

    Paul Martin's tenure as leader of the Liberal Party, at two years and change, will stand as the briefest on record*. Campaigned for it the longest, held it the shortest. *Not counting Daniel Duncan McKenzie, who was interim leader for a few months in 1919. THEY ALSO SERVE: Naturally, the party has an honoured role in mind for him, in recognition of his years of service: He can pay off the Liberals' debt! Well, it beats being used as bait.
    CalgaryGrit demands: Draft Paul Hellyer! BUT SERIOUSLY FOLKS: He also cites rumours that former Winnipeg mayor (and defeated federal candidate) Glen Murray is mulling it over. So that's, what, 30 names so far?

    MORE LEADERSHIP DOPE: This guy sounds very plugged in. Latest: Stronach is definitely in, with Tobin as one of her advisers. Will hurt McKenna especially. Kennedy and Smitherman are out. Convention for December to February. Big anybody-but-McKenna movement building on the left.

    The Dan Report comments: "Did Ignatieff's chances just go way up?"

    DOPER: Shouldn't somebody be making odds on this? Tradesports? UBC? Hello?

    DOPEST: Tobin's not out, he's just playing possum! It's a trick! etc. DOPETEST: Make way for the Minister of Billion-dollar Boondoggles!
    January 26, 2006

    I guess you'd call this a rave review.

    The taxpayers' "fiscal imbalance"

    Talking of tax points, Damian Mark Collins of Daimnation spots an intriguing story in the Petfinder:

    Maxime Bernier, elected Monday in the riding of Beauce, south of Quebec City, says the new government will look at transferring taxation powers to the provinces, at the expense of the federal government. "There are many possibilities," he said. "Transfers to provinces. Tax points to provinces. The money in the federal government's surplus could be transferred to the provinces. "Or the surplus could be put back into Canadians' pockets by reducing taxes, so that provinces would then have more taxation room, to get the sums they need from the pockets of Canadians."



    Is that their game? Resolve the "fiscal imbalance," not by increasing transfers or even by handing over tax points, but simply by cutting taxes -- the GST, perhaps -- and leave the provinces to raise their own taxes, if they dare? I've heard people in Ottawa talk about this, and it makes a certain fiendish sense. You transfer the tax points, you get zero credit: the provinces swallow the revenue as if it was always theirs, and are soon back for more. The blame game goes on, as it were, unabated (a pun that six people in the country will get). This is the history of federal-provincial relations since the last great tax-point transfer, in 1976. But just cut taxes, and the provinces have to take some responsibility. If they are really as skint as they claim, they can raise their own damn taxes. The feds have obligingly got out of the way, so there's no net increase in the tax burden. There's just an increase in political exposure: instead of living off Ottawa's credit card, the provinces would have to ask their citizens for the money. I still like the idea of trading tax points for economic union, but this is a close second. Incidentally: interesting who was chosen to speak for the new government on this critical issue, n'est-ce pas?

    The federalist beau risque

    Meme o' the day: Harper the radical devolutionist. The Star's Tom Walkom is coolly analytical:

    Stephen Harper wants to refashion the country. It is his big idea, his theme...

    [He] wants to radically decentralize power and taxing authority so that the federal government no longer plays a significant role in social areas, like medicare, that Canadians regard as national institutions...

    Put simply, Harper has promised to radically alter the relationship between Ottawa and all of the provinces...

    [R]adical decentralization permits, potentially at least, a form of sovereignty-association for all 10 provinces.



    The Globe's John Ibbitson, meanwhile, can hardly contain his enthusiasm.

    In Stephen Harper's soul, nothing surpasses the importance of reshaping the federation.
    For this, he does not need the consent of Parliament. He will act on his own, launching the most profound changes to the shape of the Canadian federation since the patriation of the Constitution.



    He lists promised constraints on the use of the federal spending power, which look a lot like what Ottawa already agreed to in the Social Union, plus some formalization of the present informal process of consultation with the provinces on international treaties, where these touch upon areas in their jurisdiction. And, er, that's it, really.

    I'm not keen on either of these, but they hardly add up to the revolution described -- still less Ibbitson's bizarre assertion that Harper would in essence implement both the Meech Lake and Charlottetown Accords. (Every time anyone proposes anything mildly decentralizing, somebody says it's Meech Lake all over again. It's a preposterous claim, for reasons I explain here.)

    And they're balanced off by other considerations. First, Harper would take a much harder line on separation than anyone in federal politics -- harder than Dion, for example. Here's Ibbitson again:

    [T]he flip side of Mr. Harper's strongly decentralist agenda is a new and uncompromising approach to the question of Quebec sovereignty, an approach that will drive Quebec separatists to distraction. Numerous conversations with people close to Mr. Harper, and Mr. Harper's own writings and statements, make it perfectly clear that this prime minister would refuse to join in any future referendum game.

    A Harper government would not accept the right of Quebec to secede from Canada. If the Parti Québécois wins the provincial election expected next year, and if PQ Leader André Boisclair attempts to hold a referendum on separation, Ottawa will largely stand aside from the campaign.

    In that case, the referendum would not be a contest between sovereigntist forces led by the Quebec premier and federalist forces led by the prime minister. A Harper government would not recognize a Yes vote, regardless of the size of the majority. It would refuse to enter into sovereignty negotiations with the Quebec government, and if compelled to enter those negotiations -- by the Supreme Court, say -- it would not accept sovereignty as a possible outcome.

    Finally, it would never cede federal responsibility for first nations in Quebec, for other Quebeckers who wished to remain in Confederation or for federal properties or resources.



    No wonder Bill Johnson's such a fan!

    Second, much of Harper's platform, notably in the areas of democratic and ethical reforms, would serve to strengthen federal authority, by enhancing federal legitimacy -- a point I made in my election-night piece -- which must surely rank as the most pressing piece of business for all federalists, hard or soft.

    Third, there is a one-line pledge in the Conservative platform that may signal something big. It's on the very last page. A Harper government, it says, would "take aggressive action to strengthen the economic union." Note that word: aggressive.

    Is there a grand bargain in the works here: transfers of federal tax points, in exchange for provincial acknowledgment of federal power to enforce the economic union? An "open federalism" for a closed door to separatism? If so, it's a deal worth making.

    The only poll that counts

    It's been two days, so let's lock this race up and call it a coronation: here are the results of my exclusive online Liberal leadership poll, or rather polls. In the "Who will win" category, as expected, Frank McKenna wins in a walk, taking 49% of the nearly 1200 votes cast. Michael Ignatieff is a distant second, with the late John Manley just behind him. The more intriguing result is in the category of "Who should win," as in who would be the best for the party and/or the country. McKenna was the early leader, but at time of writing has been nosed out by, you guessed it, Stephane Dion. (Ignatieff and Manley are tied for third.) Not exactly a representative sample, I grant you, but... (UPDATE: It's McKenna, Tobin on CTV's poll, while the Globe's makes it McKenna by a mile.) Oh, and as for "Who should the Tories want to win"? No contest. A landslide win for the Minister of critic for Complex Files. EQUAL TIME: Meanwhile, Flash Point Canada's extra-realistic transferrable-ballot poll, with 180 votes counted, puts Dion way in front. Second is Ms Complex, so there may be some, ahem, cross-primary voting going on.

    And now, Clyde Wells?

    Sir Robert Bond is on board:

    In 1990, the lapel buttons circulating on the floor of the convention read "Next time, Clyde." Earlier that year, there was widespread support across the country for him. He remains a widely respected leader who governed based on principles. Tackled a massive economic problem and helped turn it around. So I say to you: "The next is here!"



    What on earth is going on? Clyde Wells, Stephane Dion, Michael Ignatieff, Ken Dryden, Bob Rae... And on the other side of the aisle, Stephen Harper, Monte Solberg, Chuck Strahl, Jason Kenney, Tony Clement, Diane Ablonczy... When did politics suddenly become fit for decent people? Aren't nice guys supposed to finish last? How am I supposed to work myself into a self-righteous lather with this lot? These people are threatening my livelihood. Ah well. There's always Denis Coderre. And Brian Tobin, and Joe Volpe, and Scott Brison... MORE: There's some weird Lloyd Axworthy thing going on. Name keeps popping up on Liblog comment boards. Meantime, Flash Point Canada has a sophisticated transferrable ballot poll up and running. You rank your choices, just like in the real deal. And in the lead is ... Stephane Dion. Okay, granted there've only been 12 votes so far, but still... But of course, as we all know, there's only one poll that counts: the all-important andrewcoyne.com primary. MORER: For a list of truly naff possibilities, try LiberalLeadershipOdds.com. Adrienne Clarkson, anyone? Ethel Blondin-Andrew? Herb Dhaliwal? Maria Minna? Or the current frontrunner, Dennis Mills? MOREST: Latest rumour is that Ontario Health Minister George Smitherman will -- will not! will! will not! will! -- run, backed by assorted Rock and Tobin stooges.

    It's Dionmania!

    Federal Liberal Leadership: the first truly interesting suggestion - Ed Hollett. There is much to be said for a Stephane Dion candidacy - Ahab's Whale. Exeget: (Noun) A person who explains or interprets difficult parts of written works - McNally North 521. If we're gonna retain the Franco/Anglo pattern, it's time for a Frenchy. - The-Tig.
    January 25, 2006

    Dionwatch

    There's a vigorous debate going on at Jason Cherniak's on the subject: Stéphane Dion for Liberal leader? (Or at least there was, before it somehow morphed into a debate on abortion.) Jason's take: he's all right, but he's no Paul Martin.

    I'm guessing that's a point in his favour, as far as a BCer in Toronto is concerned (see his election unendorsement), who asks: Why Not Stephané Dion? (Answer: Because there's no one by that name in the running, or in the phonebook for that matter.) (UPDATE: Ah, darn, he fixed the spelling.)

    But let's get serious: Ottawa Liberal has started the inevitable Draft Dion site. For once, I don't think the not-yet-declared candidate is somehow secretly behind it. Which sort of says it all. MORE: BCTOer has the complete Dion letters: "With discussion of Stephane Dion as a possible Liberal leadership candidate seeming to explode across the blogosphere Wednesday..." That didn't take long. BULLETIN: Manley is not running. What, he was waiting to see if McKenna would run?

    IN OTHER LIBERAL LEADERSHIP NEWS: The Dan Report can exclusively confirm that ... wait for it ... "popular Ontario Education Minister and philanthropist Gerard Kennedy has been urged to run for the Liberal leadership." Well, who hasn't?

    Elsewhere, Maritime Liberal endorses Frank McKenna, but thinks Scott Brison will be chosen as interim leader. And Andy Scott for Quebec lieutenant! And what's this? Is Akaash Maharaj entering the lists? The party's former policy chief and erstwhile candidate for party president (before being kidnapped and tossed down a well by the Martinite machine) -- who is so impossibly high-minded I often want to ask him, "you do know this is the Liberal party, right?" -- has spammed the entire membership sent an open letter "to the 35,000 Liberals on my subscription list," urging them to "band together to reclaim the party of Laurier, Pearson and Trudeau." Excerpt:

    Monday evening was certainly a trying pass in the Liberal Party's history, and we will have to walk an arduous road before we emerge from this dark night of the soul. Accordingly, I am writing to urge your assistance in initiating the process of renewal, to restore our Party as a vessel for liberal-democratic ideals worthy of our heritage and deserving of the confidence of Canadians... Our Party's long association with power has made us a magnet for Liberals of convenience, who have too often supplanted Liberals of conscience. However, Canadians are not the fools that some political operatives take us for. We recognise those who seek power as an end in itself rather than as a means to advance the public good, and we choose accordingly. Fortunately, fair-weather Liberals will be the first to flee the shadow of adversity. Those of us who remain must not repeat past errors of believing that we can effect change merely by exchanging Party leaders. If there is no fundamental reform and grassroots rejuvenation of the Liberal Party itself, then no matter how talented or well intentioned the next leader may be --



    Anyway, blah blah blah, and then:

    In the coming weeks, we will all have a chance to begin this process in our local communities and in informal networks of Liberals across Canada. I am eager to perform my duty towards the cause of Liberalism, and I urge you to share the challenge during our Party's moment of destiny. I hope we will have a chance to work together, and I remain at your disposal if I can be of any assistance to you.



    Is that a, was that a ... self-draft? CAN'T TELL THE PLAYERS WITHOUT A PROGRAM: General handicapping of the race here and here and here and here.

    The fine art of cabinetry

    There'll be plenty of time to debate the size and shape of the Harper cabinet, but for now I want to focus on two positions: deputy prime minister, and Finance minister.

    In point of fact, there is no such position as deputy PM. It has no place in our system of government, there is no cabinet portfolio attached to it, and if it were up to me, I'd drop it. Or if such meaningless medals must be handed out, make four of them, one for each region. (BC squawks that "we're a region in our own right"? Fine: give the western DPM to a BC'er.)

    But giving it to Lawrence Cannon, Harper's Quebec lieutenant, sends all the wrong signals. It will inevitably be interpreted as a slap in the face to Peter MacKay. Plus it implicitly endorses, or seems to, a binational vision of Confederation -- a dangerous precedent which Harper should avoid at all costs.

    Four DPMs, then. Or none. But don't invest this dubious position with a spurious significance.

    Now to Finance. I see three choices.

    The current critic for Finance, Monte Solberg, is hard-working and well-briefed. If the job were awarded on the basis of past performance, he'd be a shoo-in. Unfortunately, as an Albertan he runs afoul of the inevitable regional considerations -- Harper will want to use the plum to expand his base, not to repay old loyalties. Experience in government, of the lack of it, will also weigh against him.

    The safe choice would be Jim Flaherty, the former Finance minister of Ontario. With a reputation as a fiscal conservative, he'd be a popular choice with the base, and give the party instant credibility in Ontario. As a veteran of the Harris government, his appointment would play well on Bay Street -- but might also be seen as a red flag in Queen's Park. The NDP would pout as well.

    A risky but potentially rewarding choice would be Maxime Bernier, newly elected MP for the Beauce. The son of former Tory MP Gilles Bernier, he's been around the political block more than most rookies. As a legislative adviser to Bernard Landry when the latter was Quebec's minister of finance, moreover, he has some experience in government, to go with his finance and law background. And as a vice president of the free-market Montreal Economic Institute and author of a book arguing the case for a flat tax, he'd send a thrill through the Conservative base. That's no small thing, cementing loyalties for when the going gets tough.

    The regional play is obviously important here, as well, and not just in the usual way. Coming from the Beauce, Bernier would play a potentially important role in, as it were, representing Quebec to itself. Quebecers are proud of the Beauce: its entrepreneurial culture reflects the province's image of itself as a rising commercial power. By appointing Bernier, Harper could help to change the subject, from what Ottawa could do for Quebec to what Quebec could do for itself, if only Ottawa would get out of the way - the same "small-government nationalism" the ADQ has tapped into.

    So I'm torn. My heart says Solberg. My head says Flaherty. My gut says ... Bernier?

    BONUS GIFTPAK: Here's a short-form treatment of Bernier's argument. OMFG: Stephen Taylor has got hold of the entire Tory cabinet! Has there been some sort of leak? Is there, saints preserve us, a mole? Nah, he's just making it up. Looks pretty plausible, though.

    Do my research for me!

    Anyone know anything about André Arthur, beyond the obvious? What his issues are? How he'll vote?

    He kept his head

    I want to elaborate on a point I made earlier about how well Harper handled himself in this election, especially in the abortion hysteria of the last two weeks, because I think it was one of the keys to victory. The Liberal Shock and Awe campaign, it occurs to me, was aimed not only at voters, whether at scaring NDP supporters into the Liberals' tent or soft conservatives out of the Tories'. It was also aimed at driving a wedge into the Tory coalition. More particularly, it was aimed at Harper. The compromise at the heart of the Tory platform, the formula that kept the social conservatives and the downtown progressives in the same room together, was the pledge of a free vote: the party would take no view on abortion, in particular, but leave it to individual MPs to vote as they saw fit. The bargain was sealed and personified in the leader. As long as he did not move off that position, the coalition would hold. The Liberal strategy, accordingly -- I'm theorizing here, but bear with me -- was to ratchet up the pressure on Harper. If they could hit the social issues hard enough, they might unnerve him, make him tack towards the centre in an attempt