February 23, 2005

PR: as simple as one person, one vote

Start the revolution without us: with a referendum on radical electoral reform less than three months away, a new survey shows just one in two British Columbians has even heard of it. Of these, just one in three claim to know much about it. One supposes that number will improve in coming weeks. There will be time enough to debate the specifics of the system the province’s voters will be asked to ratify, known as the single transferrable vote, but for now let me take up a basic objection raised by critics of proportional representation, of which the STV is a variant. It starts with a simple question: What's so special about political parties, anyway? PR bores like me go on and on about how obviously flawed the current first-past-the-post system is, since the representation of the parties in the legislature diverges so sharply from their share of the popular vote. So it's a particularly devastating rejoinder for opponents to inquire, "so what?" Isn't it more important that each riding be properly represented than that the parties should be? To which I reply: What's so special about ridings? The division of the country into 308 geographic districts is one way of representing the population, but it's not the only conceivable way. At various times in world history, it has been thought more important to represent the different classes, or estates. Some people today would like to see seats apportioned by race or gender. So there's nothing self-evidently "natural" about the riding as the basic unit of representation. What is, or should be, that basic unit? Let me suggest one that has several centuries of philosophical spadework in its favour: not ridings or parties, but the individual. That's why we give every person one vote. It's the basis of our economy, our system of laws, and so on. So perhaps you'll agree that the ideal electoral system is one that reflects the preferences of individual voters. Isn't that obligation properly discharged by first-past-the-post? Everyone gets a vote, and whoever gets the most votes wins. Simple as that, right? But there's an assumption buried in there: that the majority -- or rather, the plurality -- should rule, not just in the aggregate, as when there is a vote of the House of Commons, but in the selection of its members. If you happen to support a candidate with fewer votes than the winner in your riding, tough. Perhaps I'm too much influenced by economics, but it doesn't have to be that way. One of the great things about markets is that the majority doesn't rule. I don't have to buy the shoes that most people like: I can buy the shoes that I like. If 5% of the population prefers that kind of shoes, 5% of the market is what they get. You can't settle every issue that way: sometimes the majority has to rule. But you certainly wouldn't want to do that any more than you have to. Wherever possible, you would wish the minority to have its way as much as the majority. And even where the majority does rule, you would want the body in which that majority was represented to reflect the preferences of individual voters in the larger population. Short of allowing them to vote directly via referendum, you’d want a system in which each riding was represented in rough proportion to the distribution of preferences within it, rather than, as under the current scheme, giving 30% or less of the voters in a riding a 100% say in its representation. So instead of one MP from one party with one vote, you'd divvy up the riding's vote in the House in line with the popular vote: If one-third of the voters in a riding supported a particular candidate, that candidate and his party would get a one-third say in how that riding voted on a given matter. (As it happens, the BC proposal, with its use of multi-member constituencies, would do approximately that,) Arithmetically, that implies a similar division in the aggregate. Which is to say, proportional representation. But to come back to our original question: Is it the party that matters? Or the riding? Analogously, should members of Parliament be chosen according to their points of view on important national questions, for which the party and its platform are a proxy, or according to how well they represent the concerns of each riding? Well, both, surely. Indeed, isn’t that what allowing more free votes in Parliament is all about? On a few matters, MPs will be expected to vote the party line: notably, those issues on which the party campaigned in its platform. As for the rest, each MP would vote as he prefers, guided by some mix of his own conscience and his constituents' wishes. And what is the electoral system that best represents that duality: MP and party, local concerns and national platforms? Proportional representation. Whether on the model envisaged in BC, or in the more traditional hybrid systems (some elected by PR, some at the constituency level) in use in many countries around the world, it allows voters to divide their preferences, if they wish, between party and candidate. At present, we are often forced to choose between a candidate whose party we loathe, or a party whose candidate we abhor. Among the many benefits of PR is to liberate us from that false choice.
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17 Comments

AC:

Comments on this column should be posted here ...

(Still using the Blogger commenting system in this section, until we iron the kinks out of the TheirSay system.)

23/2/05 1:18 AM  
LJC:

I suppose we could ask what is so special about candidates? Remove them from the system and have regular people vote on government bills from the comfort of their home. On a more serious note, who exactly are the people voting for in this type of system? A pool of applicants from which a number of them are selected based on the percentage of vote a given party receives? Or do people vote for a particular person who, although not receiving a plurality of votes, gets to go to Ottawa but has his/her voting power multiplied by the percentage of votes earned in the general election?

23/2/05 10:32 AM  
freedom:

Andrew you were correct part way through your column - a referendum would empower all individuals. I fail to see why Switzerland and U.S. States can organize and operate successful referendums and Canada (with the exception of Charlottetown) does not. Oh yes, I know the reults of Charlottetown probably turned off the elites and the mass of media who wanted it - but the unwashed did not. Surely, if California with a larger popuation than Canada can do - we could! All the difficult issues, such as capital punishment, late term abortions, missle defence, and etc. could be decided.

23/2/05 12:52 PM  
Anonymous:

You the mang, mang! I doubt PR will ever happen, but it will always be the dream.

23/2/05 12:59 PM  
Peter Loewen:

LJC: suppose we remove candidates and vote directly on bills the government proposes. Who exactly is the government?

And, Freedom, I think the point of not having referendums is because sometimes you shouldn't let the majority make decisions over which they have no business or knowledge. If you put too many things to referendum you get indiviudals voting on others' citizenship based on their last name, as has happened in Switzerland. As for California, it's pretty clear that propositions have just become the capture of special interests.

23/2/05 4:04 PM  
Anonymous:

There is no "perfect system" of democracy. (That is actually a Theorem. It is called Arrow's Impossibility Theorem for anyone academic enough to care.) Different versions of democracy have different flaws. Proportional representation has the difficulty that politicians need to be high on the party's electoral list. This implies a need to curry favor with the party in order to keep your job. With ridings there is a more direct need to keep at least some voters happy. PR systems also tend to have more small parties and less chance of any one party holding a majority. This tends to give more power to the civil service who will be around longer. It also reduces the extent to which a party can be held accountable by the voters. ("Don't blame me. Blame my coalition partners for my failure to do what I promised.") But again no democratic system is perfect.

23/2/05 5:44 PM  
Peter Loewen:

Er, Arrow's theorem says nothing about whether there is a "perfect" form of democracy or not. It just demonstrates that there's no way of deciding over three or more alternatives between three or more individuals without the violation of some social choice principles. It really says nothing normative about democracy.

23/2/05 5:49 PM  
MLM:

One could criticize any number of aspects of the American style of democracy (I, for one, think referenda and propositions are a double-edged sword), but one thing that the republic has over our constitutional monarchy is that the electorate casts more than one vote. Voting for the president separately from one's representatives (and Americans vote for three of those) solves part of the party vs. personality conundrum Andrew outlines.

Our system makes it too easy for a majority government to pass laws. Some of the problems with our first-past-the-post system might be remedied by some real checks and balances -- or gridlock -- that made it more of an ordeal to shake up the status quo. (Not that the Liberals have left us with that desirable a status quo; I just want to stem the bleeding!)

23/2/05 7:50 PM  
Eric Crampton:

The best empirical literature on the subject suggests that Proportional Representation systems correlate with higher welfare spending, bigger government (as fraction of the overall economy) and higher deficits. Why? Because of the coalition politics they induce. PR means we've always got minority governments, and that the larger parties are always beholden to a small party to maintain their hold on government. This is especially bad in Parliamentary systems, where the entire government collapses on loss of confidence. So the minor parties can extract large concessions from the majors.

The top guys in the field are Torsten Persson (U Stockholm and LSE) and Guido Tabellini (Bocconi University). "The Economic Effects of Constitutions", MIT Press, 2003. You can also get a ton of their working papers online at the NBER website. Look them up, Andrew. Start here: http://www.nber.org/cgi-bin/author_papers.pl?author=torsten_persson. That will get you Persson's working papers at the NBER. Start with Persson, Roland and Tabellini: "How do electoral rules shape party structures, government coalitions, and economic policies?".

You argue that the problem in politics as compared to markets is that in markets, if 5% of folks want a particular brand of shoes, they're not stuck with whatever the majority wanted. Under PR, if 5% of voters choose the Greens, 100% of voters could be stuck with some of the Greens' policies if they're a critical minority member of the governing coalition.

It may be the case that proportional representation looks a lot more democratic or is appealing on aesthetic grounds. But it's likely to lead to worse economic policies. Are the aesthetic benefits worth the cost?

Eric Crampton
Department of Economics
University of Canterbury

24/2/05 12:12 AM  
Gord Tulk:

Canada deserves PR. It allows everyone to have their choice represented while not having to share in any of the blame that comes out of the mush of coalitions that will result. We will long for the days of Mr. Dithers when decisions were made (well sort of, well at least we are working really really hard on it).

PR will fracture our party system into so many bits and pieces - forget unifying the the right we won't even be able to unify the centre. Radicalism will be the norm. God help us if we ever are faced with a crisis - either domestic or international - we will be paralysed and unable to act.

Tell me Andrew what agruments do have against a preferential aka ranked ballot system? Surely that it the best of both worlds - we get more stable governments(more majorities or strong minorities) elected via majority consensus recognizing the geographical diversity of the country by retaining the riding system.

24/2/05 1:04 AM  
Anonymous:

As someone mentioned earlier, the American system is a pretty good balance between party, representative and reality (ie: no one entity [president, senate, house] can pass laws without accomodating the others).

Why even consider the European model when there is a far better model?

(I know, Canadians have been Euro-masculated to such an extent the very thought of 'American-style' brings on the vapors. But still, advocate the republic model!)

(Is it Quebec's fault that Canada is so depressingly European?)

Ed

24/2/05 2:03 PM  
Cranky or Just a Crank:

Proportional representation is far from the answer. As noted above, PR gives us a state of constant denial of responsibility. The coalitions formed to govern pay off the small fringe parties that they had to enlist in order to form the government, while avoiding the respobsibilty or even the possibility of making the tough decisions sine there are so many parties to appease.

Look at any of the continental systems or Israel where very few real decisions have been made for decades.

The first past the post at least lets the preferred party have a firm mandate for its term and lets it implement a program. The success or failure of this program can be placed at the feet of the ruling party and the elctorate can approve or reject the party in the next general election.

PR removes any shred of local content from the election. In the PR system, if you are Bob voting from Wetaskawin, your vote, even if cast for the winning party, will not get anyone with a whiff of where Wetaskawin is, let alone what is of importance to Wetaskawinnies. You would get is a roster representatives chosen by the party, likely some hacks who couldn't get elected on their own in a direct vote, as your MPs. If anyone had issues with parachute candidates brought in from party headquarters before, a PR system would not even require the parachutist to even jump or set foot in the riding. PR divorces the voters even further from the candidates.

The first past the post system (or some variation) better ties the canditdate to the voter on a local level. What is needed is some parliamentary reform so that it works along the lines of the English parliament in which the government may lose all manner of votes as the MPs vote their consciences or on their constituents' behalf and confidence votes are reserved for matters that genuinely deserve it. (This is what I assumed was what PM the PM meant by addressing the democratic deficit. Howver, judging from the perormance on the first controversial piece of legislation to come up - same-sex marriage - I expect that to come around about the same time as the convictions for the Adscam fiasco.)

In the end, the whole discussion is probably moot since it seems that no matter what the Liberals do, they will find some means to keep getting elected.

24/2/05 3:23 PM  
Peter Loewen:

I appreciate Eric's observation about the increased level of spending under PR systems, and his reference of the cutting-edge research on this topic. Indeed, we should realize that a move to PR, especially a highly proportional system may result in higher spending. That said, I am almost certain that a movement to an American system would result in the same thing. Indeed, the amount of pork which flows from Congress in unbelievable, and likely trumps anything seen in our country. That their overall spending is lower - basically a shift in the constant - is, I think, attributable to their distaste for universal government spending. But adopt the American system here and get ready for more spending.

As for Crank's observation, there are numerous examples in the world which suggest that we can mix local representation with proportionality, i.e. Germany, New Zealand, and others. Indeed, most electoral reform in the world is moving in this direction, and I for one think it's a great mix. It is generally not correlated with coalitions of countless parties, is relatively proportional, and seems responsive.

24/2/05 6:48 PM  
Gord Tulk:

Peter Loewen said :

"Indeed, the amount of pork which flows from Congress in unbelievable, and likely trumps anything seen in our country."

I would argue that Canadian "pork" (bacon?) is far far more widespread, systematic and entrenched. We call it entitlement up here. Things like equalization, EI, ACOA, etc. are "pork" on a grand bureacratized scale.

In the US "Pork" is much more transparent quid pro quo due to the regional counterbalance of their EEE senate. Here in Canada it is all "quid" and no "pro". And rarely is it so blantantly criminal as Adscam.

Turning our democracy into one based on PR will turn this country into a quivering pile of directionless Jello.

25/2/05 2:43 PM  
Peter Loewen:

Gord: "a quivering pile of directionless Jello." Now that's a conjecture that can be falsified. I am glad this debate is occuring on precise grounds.

Certainly, what we do not see in our own country is the blatant and constant money amendments which are made to American bills. Because on so many pieces of important legislation in the US every Senator has to be courted with some pork, the spending is higher. In a party system, where leaders can control these demands, this is less an issue.

This is only to say that the American system itself does not constrain costs. It is the general American aversion to universal programs which achieves this. And you're right, we can it entitlement here, but it's not a virtue of our electoral system, and nor would it dissappear under another system.

25/2/05 3:31 PM  
Gord Tulk:

Peter:

How do you propose to falsify my conjecture? When I was typing it I almost retracted it as it seems to me we are quite possibly almost there - witness our ruling party's pathetic dithering on missle defense and the rather tepid response from Canadians over the "decision".

Returning to the question of pork -I reiterate that Canadian political pork is done either on a macro scale or behind closed doors.

An example that many may be able to bear witness to: In eastern Canada, particularly Newfoundland all of the airports no matter how inconsequential have been elaborately rebuilt at a cost in the millions. The transport minister at the time - John Crosbie. He makes no bones about what he did. There was no act of parliament that sanctioned it.

Take a look at how ACOA and the Business Development bank have ladled out their cash or what these billion dollar foundations are doing (we don't know and parliament is powerless to find out).

You submit that the level of government spending is less in the US than in Canada due to the general American aversion to universal programs. I would submit that it is due to the very public process and the checks and balances that exist in their political system. Rest assured that if Alberta was properly represented and empowered in Ottawa government spending and pork would be greatly reduced.

25/2/05 7:04 PM  
Peter Loewen:

Hmm, Gord. Good points for the most part. A question, and then a clarification. Which, pray tell, is the government that spends the most per citizen in Canada? A clue: it starts with A and ends with lberta.

But more seriously, my point is that if you introduced the American system in Canada I think you would see more spending overall. This is because not only would cabinet ministers be empowered to prime the pump, comme Crosby, but also individual backbenchers, especially when their support was needed to pass a bill. In short, I think a move to an American system would likely lead to more spending because backbenchers and cabinet ministers could exercise this type of pork, in addition to all that we already see.

As for the billion dollar foundations, the jury is out on them, so we ought to be careful about our judgement of them. Frankly, I think they are probably more responsible, particularly because they are not subject to political control. While political control can curb spending and excess in a competitive system, it hardly does in what we would both agree is effectively a one-party state.

Finally, your observation on East Coast airports is right on the money.

26/2/05 6:26 PM