Our next PM: Stephen Harper

I wonder if anyone fully realizes what happened last weekend. The political ground has just shifted beneath our feet, even if the tremors are not felt until after election day. Which is to say: Sunday’s agreement among the three opposition leaders has not just put an end to this government. It has also chosen the next. Jack Layton has just made Stephen Harper the next Prime Minister.

The NDP leader’s decision to break with the Liberals would be momentous enough in its own right. It was clearly only taken after some considerable internal debate, measuring the delights of extorting more spending out of a weak and desperate government against the dangers of being too closely associated with a party that has become a byword for corruption. So Mr. Layton’s eventual declaration was firm and unequivocal. His party can no longer support the Liberals.

But this is the point: Having crossed that Rubicon, he cannot uncross it. The opposition leaders were not just plotting strategy -- they were passing judgment. They were resolved to defeat the government not because they disagreed with its policies, but because it was morally unfit to govern. Such a judgment is of its nature final -- at least under the Liberals’ current leadership.

Which means the shape of the next government has already been decided. If Mr. Layton cannot support the Liberals before the election, he can no more support them after it. If they are irredeemly corrupt in November or December, they are not less so in January. And if he can no longer support the Liberals, he has no other choice but to support the Conservatives. Or at least not to defeat them, which amounts to the same thing.

It doesn’t matter which party, Liberal or Conservative, wins the most seats. Suppose the standings after the election are exactly the same as they are now, that is with the Liberals having a plurality. It would be as clear then as it is today that the Liberals did not enjoy the confidence of the House, and could not form a government. Like the NDP, the Governor General would have no choice but to call upon Mr. Harper.

Does that make the election irrelevant? Yes and no. Everyone says an election won’t change anything: that it will just be another minority government. But in fact it changes everything, because it will be a minority government. If it were possible for the Liberals to eke out a majority, they could still survive. But that isn’t going to happen -- the Bloc has seen to that. If the next government is a minority, it can only be a Conservative minority. The only question is whether it governs with the support of the NDP alone, or whether it will also need the Bloc’s support.

Either way, it doesn’t have to be a formal coalition, any more than the Martin government has been. No party will want to be too quick to launch us into a third election inside of two years, even assuming any of them could afford one. And an ethics and democratic reform agenda, such as Mr. Harper has promised, would find broad areas of overlap with both the NDP and the Bloc. That ought to be enough to keep everyone busy for a year or two.

Isn’t it possible Mr. Layton might go back to supporting the Liberals, if they made him a sufficiently generous offer? Yes it’s possible. But why would he? Not only would he make himself a laughingstock, popping back in power the same parcel of rogues he had just removed from it, but he would be closing off a historic opportunity for the NDP. Mr. Layton’s ambition is to remake the NDP as a mainstream contender for power. Such erratic behaviour in its leader would hardly be evidence of that. Worse, he would be throwing the Grits a lifeline, when they were most in need of an anvil.

Whenever the NDP has supported the Liberals in the past, the only electoral beneficiaries have been the Liberals. An entente cordiale with the Conservatives, on the other hand, holds potential gains for both parties. The NDP fares worst when their voters can be scared into the Liberal fold, the better to block the Conservatives. If instead the NDP pitches itself as the party to keep a Tory government in check, NDP voters need not stray. For his part, Mr. Harper significantly reduces the “scary” factor by showing his ability to work with the NDP -- if not simply by governing.

It may be that what we are witnessing is in fact a long-term strategic shift by the NDP, with Gomery as the trigger. Perhaps Mr. Layton sensed a dynasty collapsing, and the possibilities that would open up for the NDP in its wake. Perhaps he could see the Liberals are finished.