May 26, 2007

One person, one vote. Is that so complicated?

As if it did not have enough trouble on its hands with Newfoundland and Saskatchewan, the Harper government has lately gone out of its way to antagonize Ontario as well. To be sure, the province’s Liberal government has long been in the habit of complaining about its alleged mistreatment at the hands of the feds, pleading poverty even as it was collecting billions more in federal transfers. But this time it has a point....

The issue in the current set-to is not money but power, or strictly speaking representation. Earlier this month, the Harper government unveiled legislation, Bill C-56, that would alter the system of apportioning seats among the provinces in the House of Commons. The intent, according to a government press release, was “to restore the principle of representation by population.” Note that word: restore.

The principle, fundamental to any democracy, that voters should be represented in Parliament in proportion to their numbers, has been stretched thin over the years in Canada. Provinces, for example, are constitutionally guaranteed no fewer Members of Parliament than they have senators -- which is why Prince Edward Island gets four seats, rather than the one or two to which it would be entitled under strict rep by pop.

But the Mulroney government made the situation much worse in 1985, with a raft of changes to the formula for allocating seats -- including the addition of another “floor,” guaranteeing that no province would ever have fewer seats than it had then -- whose combined effect was to prevent the increase in population in fast-growing provinces from being properly reflected in the number of seats they received in Parliament. As a result, British Columbia, Alberta and Ontario have grown increasingly under-represented.

Bill C-56 would correct that anomaly with regard to B.C. and Alberta -- but not Ontario. The legislation doesn’t say so explicitly, of course. Rather, it says, in the elaborate euphemisms of Canadian constitutional parlance, that any growing province with a population less than that of the most populous “floor” province would receive the same number of seats, proportionate to its population, as that unnamed province. Of course, we mean Quebec. So B.C. and Alberta, being smaller than Quebec, get equal treatment. Ontario, being larger, does not.

The effect will be to give B.C. and Alberta another five and four seats, respectively, after the 2011 census, over and above what they would have received under the old formula. Ontario, too, will get more seats -- but not nearly as many as its population would warrant. With about 40% of the population, Ontario will still be getting only 35% of the seats. And that under-representation will only get worse over time.

It’s impossible to justify this in the name of any sort of principle. Rather, one supposes the government’s thinking went as follows: B.C. and Alberta have been the hotbeds of discontent about this issue, and yet remain small enough that we can give them a few more seats without alarming Quebec too much. Fairness for Ontario, on the other hand, assuming no province could lose seats, would mean expanding the House by at least another 30 seats. Safer to leave it be -- and in any case, Ontario is too big and sleepy to notice it is being shortchanged.

We shall see. The formula is so mind-numbingly complex -- the legislation goes on for several paragraphs -- that few outside government can be expected to be aware of the skullduggery concealed therein. But how much simpler, and fairer, it would be if it just said this: There shall be one seat for every 100,000 population, rounded up to the nearest whole number.

That guarantees every province or territory at least one seat. More important, it would get us a long way closer to that bedrock democratic principle I mentioned off the top: that every vote is of equal weight, that every citizen should have equal voice in deciding who governs us.

This isn’t just a matter of inter-provincial fairness, after all. There are also enormous discrepancies in population, within each province, between urban and rural seats -- to say nothing of the inequities to which our present system of counting the votes gives rise, wherein (for example) the votes of 1.6 million Bloc Quebecois voters count for nearly twice as much, in terms of seats, as the votes of 2.6 million NDP voters, while the votes of 650,000 Green party voters count for nothing at all.

The unfairness, then, is not between provinces, or parties. It is between citizens. Were it to be openly suggested that some voters should have two or three votes while others have only one -- or none -- depending on which part of the country they live in or what party they voted for, there would be riots in the streets. Yet that is effectively what we have now.

Perhaps this latest bit of chicanery will be the last straw. Perhaps Ontario’s howls of protest will at last shake us out of the conceit that there is some alternative in a democracy to the principle, as simple as it is fundamental, of one person, one vote.

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80 Comments

google:

Hear, hear.

Although Constitution Act, 2007 attempts to right some of the wrongs with the 1974/85 formulae, singling out Ontario for perpetual disenfranchisement makes the inequality of our citizens even more transparent and shameful. This act continues a trend in recent history, in which Parliament's seating formula amendments perpetuate historical disenfranchisement. The Supreme Court also must take some blame for inventing it's vague and illogical 'effective representation' principle, that allows a magnitude of discrepancy in ridings within provinces.

The only way out of this mess is one person, one vote. There is no other principle that can lay claim to equal treatment for all Candians. Not 'effective representation', not 'preserving "floor" province representation' (?!?), nothing.

26/5/07 12:46 PM  
Steve L.:

To be sure, the province’s Liberal government has long been in the habit of complaining about its alleged mistreatment at the hands of the feds, pleading poverty even as it was collecting billions more in federal transfers.

and Andrew never wrote about them.

But this time it has a point.

and THIS once warrants a column!

man.

oh and by the way. i'm sorry i let you off easy last time, not knowing your true colors.

26/5/07 1:37 PM  
Steve L.:

oh and by the way. i'm sorry i let you off easy last time, not knowing your true colors.

that was targeted at "Google" by the way.

26/5/07 1:38 PM  
r a:

This question is much more important than first-past-the-post vs some kind of alphabet soup proportional representation; in addition, the case for reform is much clearer and the solution is much simpler.

The current system is unjustifiable and needs to be fixed. And that regardless of Constitutional gurantees. If the Constitution guarantees PEI more seats than it merits then the Constitution needs to be amended; or overridden with the notwithstanding clause.

Reform is unlikely to be implemented, however. Ontario is too passive and the rest of the country is too parochial: voters who accept general principles are heavily outnumbered by those who favour their own local interests. The current proposal is a good example of a Chretienite muddle-through (and yet one more example of how our New PM seems to be learning from the Master).

26/5/07 4:09 PM  
Gord Tulk:

Andrew:

I am all for your 100,000 per seat idea as long as it is concurrent with the implementation of a EEE senate. Until then the heavily populated central provinces would have too much of an advantage in what presently is the only functioning elected federal body.

26/5/07 4:20 PM  
Jon Dursi:

Gord:

In the House of Parliament, there are no provinces; there are representatives of *Canadians*. Under the 1/100000 rule, there would be more reps from Ontario and Quebec, true -- because that's where more Canadians live. *Canadians*, not provinces, should be fairly represented in Parliament.

26/5/07 4:32 PM  
NB taxpayer:

People tend to equate more seats with better representation. Not the case. New Brunswick has a lot less than 100,000 citizens per elected member and it's system is far from perfect.

As well, if the HoC were to odopt a PR system down the road, how many "list" candidates would be assigned on top of each province's electoral districts? Is there a fair approach?

26/5/07 5:28 PM  
paul.obeda@:

Interesting. An article about Parliamentary representation with only passing mention of the actual current formula. A formula which starts with the article's conclusion of equal representation based on population (albeit stated slightly differently - as a quotient of electors per MP in a nominal House of 282 seats, rather than a multiple of MPs per 100,000 electors), but which is perverted by two clauses: the "Senate" clause and the "Grandfathering" clause, (both mentioned in the article).

The former clause (guaranteeing a Province has at least as many MPs as Senators) adds 9 MPs to the House, benefitting PEI (3), NB (3), NS (2), and NL (1); the latter (guaranteeing no loss of MPs to the Provinces whose populations are not growing as fast as the national average) adds 18 to the benefit of QC (7), MB (4), SK (5), NL (1), and NS (1).

The latter clause should perhaps be abolished outright; the former was (if I understand correctly) a condition of constitutional repatriation and would probably require the authority of the Senate to be enhanced through the election of Senatorial appointees (in the model of Alberta's newest Senator-designate).

Perhaps a more interesting question this raises is why the current provincial boundaries are as they are: why not split Ontario roughly along the Trans-Canada (or the 49th), for example: give Northern Ontario its own distinct representation, separate from Southern and Eastern Ontario?

26/5/07 6:16 PM  
FDuquette:

I wonder if the constitutionality of the current system (the Elections Act?), based on the the inequity of voting "weight" province to province, could be challenged on some "geographic discrimination" grounds.

26/5/07 6:23 PM  
Mike Moffatt:

"I wonder if the constitutionality of the current system (the Elections Act?), based on the the inequity of voting "weight" province to province, could be challenged on some "geographic discrimination" grounds."

There's a lot stronger grounds than that, IMO.

The over-represented provinces also happen to be the whitest. On average, the vote of a white person is worth more than the vote of a black person.

There's no doubt in my mind that our current arrangement violates Section 15(1) of the constitution. If it can be saved under the "reasonable limits" clause is another question.

Ten years ago, I presented this argument to my young constitutional law professor with a freshly-minted PhD. He called the argument "quite interesting".

The professor's name? Ian Brodie.

26/5/07 6:59 PM  
Anonymous:

Booooooooooooooring column. Yawn.

26/5/07 7:03 PM  
Shane:

Brilliant column, as always.

This is one of those issues that is just plain indefensible, completely and utterly unfair, and a slap in the face to nearly half of all Canadians (and a punch in the face to democracy).

26/5/07 8:18 PM  
Randy Couture:

Great column, AC.

In other news, at UFC 71 the Chuck Liddel Quinton Jackson fight looks to be a barnburner.

I'm disappointed that its not being liveblogged here at AndrewCoyne.com

26/5/07 10:19 PM  
google:

Steve L. said: oh and by the way. i'm sorry i let you off easy last time, not knowing your true colors.

that was targeted at "Google" by the way.


If you're gunning for "Google", be aware that I am "google", a different poster, the one with the first post in this thread.

But assuming your comments were aimed at me, what are my now-discovered true 'colors'?

What nefarious truths could you have gleaned from the knowledge that I support the principle of rep-by-pop? How do they warrant birthing a desire to have treated me more roughly in the past?

While you're explaining, could I bother you to include an argument in your post on the topic in question?

26/5/07 10:34 PM  
FDuquette:

google:

There was some speculation on whether a constitutional gambit could challenge the current electoral system (indeed on racial grounds, according to Mike Moffat) but your first post refers to the Supreme Court defining an 'effective representation' view of the issue; what is 'effective rep' and has the court accepted the current system.?

26/5/07 10:49 PM  
Steve L.:

thank you for informing me that i don't have to capitalize the first "g" in your alias, google. now i don't have to press the shift key just for your sake.

but really, what do you want me to say in regards to this topic? by writing this column, Andrew Coyne has evidently caved in to one of his several hypocritical urges. and, by cheering him on, so have you.

the only way out, in your own words, ironically, is for both you and Andrew Coyne to drown in a lava pit, which is what would happen to you if you even try to pursue this version of one-person-one-vote. if seats are arranged to accurately reflect demographic distributions in Canada, you would see seats dropping across the entire Maritime sphere, half of the west (Manitoba and Saskatchewan, and Quebec. and don't forget that all three territories combined would not have enough people to justify even one seat for the territories in the House of Commons. isn't it ironic that Andrew opened up his column by criticizing the Conservatives for shortchanging Saskatchewan and Newfoundland? if either you or Andrew Coyne is prime minister, you would be burned at the stake. by Sasquatches and Newfies. and then drowned in a pit of lava, of course.

as it is, the less power Ontario has, the better.

but basically i'm just repeating stuff said by other folks. sorry i didn't act soon enough so that no one could steal my thunder.

26/5/07 11:14 PM  
gord tulk:

Jon Dursi:

As I said in my first post 1/100000 works fine if and only if the senate is reformed on a EEE arrangement. Other wise the only elected house HAS to act both as a per-cap body and as a provincial-rep body. That is why Mulroney did what he did and why Harper is proposing what he is proposing.

Andrew's binary view on this issue is sadly symptomatic of many of his positions of late.

27/5/07 2:12 AM  
Ace of Spuds:

Lets see...how does this go...insult Coyne...Coyne you useless tool you have it wrong as usual...offer some cryptic analysis...Canadian constitution is based entirely on gripe and indignation and has been for most of the post WW2 twilight, we were offered world stage status and lost the handle...offer a totally unworkable solution...if we are to "open the constitution" a far better solution for Canada as a nation would be to break up the behemouths aka Ontario and Quebec, who ever said that provincial borders were inviolate?

27/5/07 7:24 AM  
Quebecois Separatiste:

One nation, one vote. Is that so complicated.

27/5/07 7:43 AM  
Anonymous:

How I well remember those heady days for political junkies, shortly after Dion was elected Liberal leader, when we were told how much he was going to raise the level of political debate. So far it's been mostly nit-picking everything Harper does or doesn't do. But now, like manna from heaven, we are treated to an issue that should be right up Dion's academic alley. Yet have we heard a peep from the guy ? No. Strange that. Especially when McGuinty looks in need of some political support for his defence of Ontario's interests. C'mon Dion, Harper has put his cards on the table with his proposed Bill C-56. What would you propose instead, and be specific please. How many seats should each of Albera, B.C. and Ontario get ? Then we can have a real debate between the two main political parties. It's obviously asking too much of the mediocre English media to press Dion on this, so our hopes rest with the Quebec media to smoke Dion out on where he stands.

27/5/07 11:29 AM  
r a:

Furthermore...
Withe regard to regional representation in the Senate. Why is it so important anyway, as some posters seem to assume? Why not have guaranteed numbers of seats for other groups, such as natives, non-whites, women, the disabled, the poor, etc. Why should geography be the only legitimate grounds on which to justify over-representation?

27/5/07 12:18 PM  
FDuquette:

If the Maritimes, Quebec or some western provinces lose seats, then "so what?" seems the obvious ansewer. If an area loses population, it loses relevance, tough luck, part of the lottery of life. They already get billions in transfer payments, why also a tranfer in individual voting power.
Provincial-based federal electoral seating formulas are not inviolate, especially if it is at the expense of a voter based criterion.

27/5/07 12:18 PM  
Anonymous:

There is no principle with a so called EEE senate. It was instituionalized pandering when the US implemented it, and it remains that today.

The hypocrisy of Alberta elites who advocate for this without implementing a provincial senate is cartoonish.

A Canadians vote should not count for less because they choose to live in a place were other Canadians already have chosen to live. Moving from Rural Can/Sask/Que to Urban Can/Alberta/Ontario should not cause you to be effectively stripped of your voting rights.

Why is it that so many conservatives who advocate for business and people to be left to survive or thrive on their own...also claim that governments should be propped up beyond the populations they are supposed to serve. The ULTIMATE form of big government...government with voting power.

27/5/07 12:51 PM  
paul.obeda@:

"A Canadians vote should not count for less because they choose to live in a place were other Canadians already have chosen to live."

Now that raises some interesting questions. Why should a rural voter have less of a say because the nature of Canadian geography drives most to live in urban settings?

There are many around who would advocate for the inequities of "Proportional Representation", claiming that some viewpoints are underrepresented in Parliament.

So why not provide a more equitable balance of viewpoints: urban areas, which have common voting tendencies, can be granted a fixed fraction of power regardless of their actual population. These Urban ridings can be allocated by Party Lists among the various urban centres. Similarly suburban and rural areas.

Or other "equitable" divisions can be found to placate those in the minority. Maybe redraw riding boundaries to split those with an education from those who might be more likely to vote Green. (That's a joke, folks. But you get the point.)

Backroom power brokers can decide who will govern, and what platform they will implement after an election is based on completely different platforms and party alignments.

Some may point out that certain ridings have a large population but a small number of voters: immigrants and children are not uniformly distributed across the country, yet they both deserve representation.

Despite its many flaws, the principle of equal weighting of votes by geographic boundary is a good one. And once that region's candidate is selected in an election, only that representative (and not Party Power Brokers with backroom lists) should try to represent all those who voted for other parties or who did not vote.

27/5/07 2:09 PM  
Stevo:

Look, whether Ontario gets only a few additional seats under Bill C-56 or gets enough to match its share of the population, either way it will still have the power to elect or defeat federal governments. This is why the issue probably doesn't resonate much among Ontarians (Premier McGuinty excepted). Whether Ontario has 110 seats or 120, it will still decide the outcome of every single federal in the near future. It's power is secure. I'm not saying that it should remain the only province with a significant disparity between population versus seat totals, but such a disparity would matter less to Ontario than it would to BC or Alberta.

While I applaud much of what Mulroney did as PM, I agree that he screwed us royally in this regard. The idea that a province can never LOSE seats is preposterous and should be repealed at once. Will it happen? Of course not, since it will enrage Quebecers, and Harper needs their voters to win the next election. So we're basically stuck with it - and with it, Quebec's 75 seats, and PEI's 4 seats.

27/5/07 2:36 PM  
Martin:

"One person, one vote. Is that so complicated?"

Oh yes it is. In most democracies, this principle had to be skewed to take geographic, ethnic, historical, etc. realities into account. The theory had to be matched with realpolitik.

That said, in most cases this is done through the upper chamber (Senate) and not the lower chamber (House of Common). In the U.S., for example, both Wyoming (pop. 515,004) and California (pop. 36,457,549) have two Senators...

Without going to this extreme, a reform of our Parliament could thus very well take into account other elements than one person one vote. An argument could be made, for example, for the need to boost the representation of the Maritimes and the Prairies because of their unique economic needs, or to protect the Quebec nation and its distinct culture...

27/5/07 5:41 PM  
Érik Lablle Eastaugh:

People interested in this issue should read K.C. Wheare's "Federal Government" (1948; 1967). It's the classic work on the subject and still relevant today.

The Globe published an article not too long ago pointing out that, if present trends continue, by about 2040 Ontario will be able to elect a majority government entirely on its own. Even today, if we went to full rep-by-pop, Ontario could elect minority governments on its own.

Mind you, "Ontario" is not a homogenous entity that thinks and acts with a single mind. People out West tend to make that mistake a lot. It's the same mistake as separatists make when they say that "Quebec" wants this, or "Quebec" wants that, or the "nation québécoise" thinks a certain way. But in politics, perception is 70% of reality, so people in other regions of the country will begin to feel threatened.

Google - Don't bother arguing with Steve L., he's incoherent.

27/5/07 6:12 PM  
Quebecois Separatiste:

You see Denmark is a small nation of 5.5 millions just north of Germany (80 millions). Now it doesn't really matter for the danes if there are 80 ot 150 million germany since they are politically separated for most part. But imagine if Denmark was a province of Germany. With 5.5 millions danes... the political weight of danes in Germany wouldn't be much and Danmark would germanized itself.

That's why Quebec as a nation must separate from Canada. When Quebec was 25%-30% of Canada... we could argue we had a weight... but with Quebec going to 15% in 1 or 2 generation, it is going amplify the canadianization of Quebec.

27/5/07 6:29 PM  
Mike Moffatt:

I love hearing conservatives talk about the need for a EEE senate. That we need to take action to ensure that ensure that minority groups, such as Manitobans, are over-represented in government positions such as Senators. If only we had more affirmative action laws in place for the Senate, to make sure these regional minorities get their fair share!

27/5/07 8:29 PM  
Meany:

Oh yes it is so complicated. Sure, in an ideal democracy, each person's vote would be the same. However, we don't live in an ideal democracy, we live in Canada. To put in such an amazing, one person, one vote system, we need to amend the bloody constitution. Getting 50% of the population is easy, Ontario, Alberta + BC are greater than 50%, so I wouldn't worry much about that. However, 7 provinces? We need 4 more to sign on in addition to those 3. Quebec is out of the question, they think they deserve 25% of the seats no matter their population, just, well, because they are Quebec. MB and SK would lose a huge portion of their seats, so I'm assuming they're out, and PEI, well that Senatorial clause was the best thing that's ever happened to them and they sure aren't giving it up. So there you have it, even if we got the rest to sign on, no dice. Fixing this mess is completely impossible.

27/5/07 9:15 PM  
Mike Jr:

Quebec as a nation must separate from Canada. When Quebec was 25%-30% of Canada... we could argue we had a weight... but with Quebec going to 15% in 1 or 2 generation, it is going amplify the canadianization of Quebec

Of course by that logic, everyone but Ontario should separate from Canada, due to the massive weight of Ontario.

27/5/07 10:03 PM  
gord Tulk:

Q.S.:

your post should read:"quebecois as a nation". Even your own federal party the BQ voted unanimously in favour of that.

27/5/07 10:03 PM  
gord tulk:

meany:

It would get the support of mb,sk,pei,Ns and NL IF it was done at the same time as the EEE was implemented. That's how it was done in the US.

27/5/07 10:06 PM  
robedger:

How could you write a column on this issue without mentioning that the Conservatives do much better in BC and (especially) Alberta than they do in Ontario?

27/5/07 11:34 PM  
google:

Steve L. said : thank you for informing me that i don't have to capitalize the first "g" in your alias, google. now i don't have to press the shift key just for your sake.

You are mistaken. I was informing you that there's another poster in these forums with a similar handle, and how to distinguish us.

by writing this column, Andrew Coyne has evidently caved in to one of his several hypocritical urges.

Can you explain how this urge is hypocritical for AC?

the only way out, in your own words, ironically, is for both you and Andrew Coyne to drown in a lava pit,

No, the lava pit parts are your words.

which is what would happen to you if you even try to pursue this version of one-person-one-vote. if seats are arranged to accurately reflect demographic distributions in Canada, you would see seats dropping across the entire Maritime sphere, half of the west (Manitoba and Saskatchewan, and Quebec. and don't forget that all three territories combined would not have enough people to justify even one seat for the territories in the House of Commons. isn't it ironic that Andrew opened up his column by criticizing the Conservatives for shortchanging Saskatchewan and Newfoundland?

It is not ironic, because reducing the seats allocated to Candians in those provinces would not be shortchanging them. It would only be no longer overrepresenting them. This distinction is key to understanding what is at stake.

Righting a wrong in politics requires one of two events:
1) a sacrifice by principled leadership for a greater good
2) a bargain of self interest (i.e. a larger bargain involving more than the House seat formula alone).

Either of these routes could see rep-by-pop restored in the House.

if either you or Andrew Coyne is prime minister, you would be burned at the stake. by Sasquatches and Newfies. and then drowned in a pit of lava, of course.

As long as it's good ol' Canadian lava...

as it is, the less power Ontario has, the better.

Taken to its natural conclusion, voters in Ontario should have no representation at all according to you. What, pray tell, warrants them this punishment?

Finally, you still haven't answered the questions from my previous post. And your argument against rep-by-pop so far seems to be that AC and I would end up in a pit of lava.

Do you care to elaborate, or is that all you've got?

28/5/07 1:21 AM  
Steve L.:

hey google didn't Érik Lablle Eastaugh tell you to not talk to me? yeesh.

if i have to spell it out, my points can be summarized thusly:

Andrew Coyne's hypocrisy in this column is twofold. one of them i have explained already in my very first comment under this column. if you can't read, don't bother.

now, if either you or Andrew Coyne contends only that Ontario should get a few more seats, then okay, that's a bit more understandable, although not any more agreeable. but are you actually going to look me in the e-face and say that you can bulldoze your pan-Canadian ideals of 1-person-1-vote through the political landscape as it is in Canada any better than the Conservatives? any better than the rest of us? i'm not necessarily opposed to the idea if you promise to successfully accomplish this feat were you in control of the PMO, but if you're just swaggering in here demanding that people do things that you can't accomplish yourself, then you're just being jerks.
but do note: did i ever hit back at Andrew Coyne for criticizing government pork-barrel favors for Quebec? no, because i believe that it doesn't take a rocket scientist to cut at least some subsidies to Quebec but still avoid causing significant fluctuations in the country's (and Quebec's) political goodwill.

by that token, i also haven't hit back at Andrew for criticizing the floor-crossing of David Emerson (i wasn't around this website at that time, but i wouldn't have been defending the Conservatives on this issue even if i were). anyone with a rudimentary understanding and appreciation of constituency goodwill should've been able to refrain from doing something like that.

but anyway. since you asked for a more "exact" articulation of what i was saying, i guess i have to amend my previous statements:

what problem do i have against rep-by-pop? i've never implied antagonism against the idea itself, if you care to read. carefully, that is.

what problem do i have against loafers hiding under their desks demanding the sky from other people? plenty. but hey don't look at me like that. i'm not necessarily talking about you! i'm just... uh... talking about the fire hydrant there.

finally, what problems do i have against Ontarians? not that much actually. i just like saying outrageous things. although, if you think about it, Ontarian voters are still giving Dalton McGuinty free ride after free ride in the polls. the same Dalton McGuinty who broke a taxation promise and gave his cronies a 30% pay raise. let's ignore the health premium tax and just look at the despicable pay raise. being a Conservative voter, maybe i can't always convince you of my anti-pork-barrel credentials, but if i was the premier of Ontario, i would f*cking RESIGN before i accept a 30% pay raise. and after observing that Dalton McGuinty was still riding high in the polls, the BC Liberals followed suit. a merry coincidence isn't it? once again, i don't habitually recycle my Ontario hate-ons like a broken record, but, in my objective assessment, maybe this is one of the more appropriate times for piling the hate-on on Ontario.

28/5/07 3:38 AM  
FDuquette:

One person, one vote protects an individual's 'one vote' from government or group disenfranchisement. Under the current system, a formula exists to disenfrachise that one vote, (e.g., to a .98 fraction, etc.) in the name of a state/regional interest. This in itself is an affront to commonly understood ideas of parliamentary democracy, the purpose of our constitution and our equality before the law.
If there are regional disparities then other means can be found to balance them that does not include the erosion of an individuals vote by the state.

28/5/07 9:36 AM  
Stevo:

Steve L:

If it weren't for 16 ONTARIO seats flipping from Liberal to Conservative, the former party would have won the election and Stephen Harper would probably be gone from politics by now.

Dalton McGuinty lacks the smarmy, arrogant conceit of his federal cousins, and he's arguably more right-wing than John Tory. He will win the next election handily and this is one federal Conservative supporter who doesn't see that as being a bad thing. I'm holding out until the provincial Tories elect a leader who is closer ideologically to Mike Harris than to Bob Rae.

28/5/07 9:58 AM  
KRB:

Ok, a question: I'm assuming the 1985 Grandfather clause floor was added solely through an act of Parliament, so couldn't an act of Parliament alone reverse that one? Please someone explain why not, if that's the case?

Obviously the Senatorial clause would need the 50%+, 7/10 formula to replace. Or would it require unanimous consent? Without an accompanying reform of the Senate, you'd never get it. I'm not saying an EEE Senate, but something that achieves some regional balance. Any federation's upper house should act as the lightning rod for regional concerns, while the lower house is the national voice.

Our system is a REPRESENTATIVE democracy. And it is set up basically like an electoral college of mini-regions, aka ridings/districts. I'm in full agreement that the Elections Act currently gives way too much leeway in the ability to deviate from the set provincial electoral quotient, and that this has led to the overrepresentation of our rural regions. That definitely has to be tightened up. If NWT gets one MP, what's so hard about having 1 MP for most of northern Ontario? Give those MP's extra staff and a bigger constituency budget for offices and such, but let's move more towards strict rep-by-pop.

But one person, one vote? Sounds good, but I don't know if I concur. Assuming all ridings in a province represent the same number of constituents (i.e. so that that injustice has been addressed), then if every seat in Toronto voted 90% Liberal, I don't see why those votes should overwhelm a 51-49% vote for a Conservative in northern Ontario. Obviously, there are great differences between the concerns and aspirations of a big city dweller, and a voter from a small hamlet in northern Ontario.

In any vote of any democratic grouping, whether 99.99% or 50.01% vote to do X, X gets done regardless. In the former, the extra votes aren't wasted. People have had their say. That all their votes weren't needed is besides the matter.

And I'm coming to the position that systems like STV effectively give some citizens 2 or more votes (which is what this article's trying to reduce, no?). There should be a cost associated with wanting to vote NDP as your first choice in a riding where one should know the NDP don't have a chance. You shouldn't be able to cast your vote for the NDP with the comfort of knowing that it's basically a sympathy vote, and that you'll get an automatic do-over with your 2nd choice to vote for one of the contending candidates. There should be a cost, and people should have to truly weigh, and live with, the consequences of their choice.

And AC, you can't call STV "simple" and on the other hand label this proposed formula as "mind-numbingly complex". I would argue it's a whole lot easier to grasp than STV. So be consistent.

28/5/07 11:07 AM  
Anonymous:

EEE Senate is one of the dumbest ideas I have ever come across. Why should 200,000 PEIers, have the same say as 10,000,000 Ontarians.

28/5/07 11:51 AM  
KRB:

200,000 PEI'ers is being generous. PEI had 135,851 residents in the May 2006 Census.

Really, PEI would qualify as a Regional Municipality in most other provinces, with a mayor and at most 10 councillors.

The "equal" in EEE will not fly, but something "more equal". Though between Ontario and PEI, with 6 Ontario senators for every PEI senator, it's pretty decent already.

28/5/07 12:24 PM  
Anonymous:

Now that raises some interesting questions. Why should a rural voter have less of a say because the nature of Canadian geography drives most to live in urban settings?

What? Rural voters have more of a say. That's why we still have farm welfare. Economics drives people to cities, not geography. When you move from one area to another, you lose voting power. Why would a government force overepresentation on areas that people have decided aren't worthy of their residence?

Would it really matter to PEI if they lost 3 seats? If they have 4 MPs or 1, they still don't matter to the federal parliment.

Don't get mad at Ontario MP's...they just want to be as overpaid as those in Ottawa and Edmonton.

28/5/07 1:35 PM  
google:

QS said: Quebec as a nation must separate from Canada. When Quebec was 25%-30% of Canada... we could argue we had a weight... but with Quebec going to 15% in 1 or 2 generation, it is going amplify the canadianization of Quebec

I'll do you one better:

Le Ville de Québec as a nation must separate from Québec. With Montréal stagnant for 1 or 2 generations, we could argue we had weight... but with Québec stuck at 10%, it is going to amplify the Montréalization of Québec.

Vive le Ville de Québec libre!

28/5/07 2:12 PM  
RSimpson:

Would it really matter to PEI if they lost 3 seats? If they have 4 MPs or 1, they still don't matter to the federal parliment
Well it might matter to PEI and it might matter to New Brunswick and Saskatchewan and Quebec; after all where do we draw the line?
The fact of the matter is that in order to corrct this little bit of history you have to open the constitution and if its open for one its open for all.
We failed the Constitutional test miserably with the Meech Lake Accord and no one with a cool head wants Canada to go there again.

28/5/07 3:37 PM  
Gord Tulk:

"Anonymous:
EEE Senate is one of the dumbest ideas I have ever come across. Why should 200,000 PEIers, have the same say as 10,000,000 Ontarians."

For the same reason why Wyoming with 490,000 people has the same number of senators as California with 34 million people (not including the 5 to 8 million illegal immigrants who could become citizens under the Z visa amnesty bill currently before the senate) - It keeps the country at peace and in one piece.

Australia also has EEE and the largest state - New South Wales - has 6.8 Million people while the smallest - Northern Territory - has just 200,000.

Note that both of those countries are not in a state of chronic constitutional wrangling and the state/provincial governments are far less powerful at the federal level as there is adequate empowered representation in the federal senate(s).

28/5/07 3:37 PM  
gord Tulk:

KRB:

What you are talking about is some kind of bastardized hemi-rep by pop system for the senate. We already have that in the HOC - please see AC's column above.

ONE province one (or ten) votes. The US and Australia et al seem to have no problem with it - why are Ont and Que so selfish?

....

As for RSimpson's argument that the talks should never be re-opened - that it is fine for those who are in the dominant position - ONT and Que. It is not okay for the other 8 provinces 2 of whom - BC and AB have it as part of their official gov't's position (At least it was the last time I checked) to see talks on senate reform - and thus constitutional reform happen.

The "I'm alright Jack" attitude on the part of ON and QC is similar to that of the "Westmount Rhodesians" of a few decades ago - and look where it got them.

28/5/07 3:49 PM  
Anonymous:

I really don't give a damn what Australia and US do.

135,000 PEIers will never get the same number senators as 10,000,000 Ontarians. The provinicial boundries are historical and in many cases meaningless. There Dozens of cities in Ontario that have populations greater than PEI!

If number of senators were equal per province, why the hell would 10,000,000 Ontarians not split the province up to get their fair amount of representation?

EEE is all about certain people not liking how Ontario and Quebec tend to vote and attempting to figure out schemes for diluting the voting power of those that may disagree with them.

One person, one vote, abolish the senate.

Stop discriminating against Canadians based on the region they live in!

28/5/07 4:46 PM  
Harlequin:

I can't resist.

Of course geography isn't a very good mechanism for delineating interests. Being a tech worker in Edmonton, I have much more in common with a tech worker in Toronto than I do with Joe Moneybags or Jane Homeless (even here in the same federal riding within Edmonton).

I say cut the House in halves; keep geography for half, and for the other half use this. Nothing's perfect... but goddamn, he's got a point.

28/5/07 6:48 PM  
Gord Tulk:

Anonymous it isn't regional discrimination to have a EEE. It is a mechanism to protect the confiscation of one province's/ state's assets by another more populous one. The NEP, Lower Churchill contract, fisheries quota to korea in return for wiper blade sales to Hyundai etc. etc. do not happen if a EEE senate exists.

Picture this: Ten farms of equal size and assets. the only difference is that two of the farms combined have half of the population. The "co-op" of these farms is ruled by one person one vote. Very quickly the two large pop. farms vote to take the harvests of the other eight.

How long before the other eight start to agitate to have the co-op dissolved?

....

"If number of senators were equal per province, why the hell would 10,000,000 Ontarians not split the province up to get their fair amount of representation? "

I wish them godspeed. ON and Que are diverse enough and their populations are lopsided within thus we see similar confiscation of resources from areas like Sudbury and James Bay to toronto and Montreal.

Another option id to have EEE provincial senates as several States in the US have.

....

Anonymous: You may say you "don't give a damn what Australia and US do." But would you (could you) name a country that has similar issues to those of Canada does that works as well or better than those two countries?

...
I have had discussions with several politcally engaged Americans over the years and every one was amazed that Canada has the kind of dysfunctional federation - one that does not have a body that recognizes the legislative equality of the provinces.

Much as Canadians think that the Healthcare system and Marketing boards are working fine so too do millions central Canadians think the same of the Houses of Parliament.

You would think after Meech and Charlottetown they might have learned otherwise.

28/5/07 8:30 PM  
Shane:

Gord,

Your farm analogy doesn't make sense. Let's make it more realistic.

First, the farms shouldn't be of "equal size and assets". The two farms with the huge populations should have much larger assets (as Quebec and Ontario do). Now let's imagine what would happen with an EEE system of representation.

The two farms that have over half the assets get two votes, and the other eight tiny farms get eight votes. What would prevent the eight from voting themselves a large share of the big farms' largesse? In other words, what would keep an EEE senate from, say, really enriching the equalization scheme (that comes primarily from Ontario)?

29/5/07 10:59 AM  
KRB:

Gord Tulk: Australia also has EEE and the largest state - New South Wales - has 6.8 Million people while the smallest - Northern Territory - has just 200,000.

Gord, I believe the Northern Territory has only 2 Senators, to the 12 for every Australian State.

And as far as I can tell, the German federation is not in a state of "chronic constitutional wrangling" even though its various Lander are not equally represented in the German upper house.

Also, I'm not after a one-time seat adjustment for the Senate. I want a formula in place that will change the composition of the Senate "on the fly", much as the House of Commons is. The last thing we need is to keep opening up the Constitution every 30-40 years to deal with this. A good Constitution is one that doesn't need to be amended at regular intervals.

29/5/07 11:02 AM  
wsam:

"But would you (could you) name a country that has similar issues to those of Canada does that works as well or better than those two countries?"

Spain. In that it faces infinitely larger challenges than Canada. It also has a more troubled history and has risen farther.

4 languages – three of which are widely used. 2 serious separatist movements, one of which is deadly. Several autonomous regions, each with its own responsibilities and areas of authority, often originating from the Middle Ages.

All of which makes tinkering with the country’s governance problematic, to say the least. .

Plus Islamic terrorists posing a serious and on-going threat to the country and its people, not a bunch of kids instant messaging each other about when their next paintball practice jihad is going to happen. In retrospect, Canada’s challenges seem minor.

But, of course, you wouldn’t really care about any of that since your interest in politics is about making Canada work worse, not better. Why would Ontario, for example, agree to anything which wasn’t in its interest? Like a triple E senate. You wouldn’t expect Alberta to agree to something which wasn’t in its interest?

29/5/07 11:39 AM  
Shane:

And, Gord, could you explain where you see "confiscation of resources" from Sudbury to Toronto. As far as I can tell there is a PURCHASING of resources (as in, a deal involving a willing seller and a willing buyer). As for tax dollars, they flow out of Toronto and into the hinterlands. The "confiscation of resources" actually flows the other way.

29/5/07 12:01 PM  
Anonymous:

"In other words, what would keep an EEE senate from, say, really enriching the equalization scheme (that comes primarily from Ontario)?"

The House of Commons.

29/5/07 12:23 PM  
Gord Tulk:

Shane:

AB BC and SK have at least as many if not more resources as ON and QC and far less pop'n. ON and QC do not have over 50% of the resources, not even close.

With EEE the large pop provinces still have veto power through the rep by pop HOC. (this double majority (50% pf provinces and 50% of per cap delegates) method is how the CP sets policy btw)

KRB:

I stand corrected re the northern territory. Tasmania has 486,000 and NSW 6.8 million. Which is still comparable to the imbalance here in CDA.

True, the lander are not equally represented, but nor are they nearly as demographically and resource diverse. And I suspect that some of the smaller lander aren't 100% at peace with the unbalanced system.

That you think that re-opening the constitution is the last thing we need may be so, but several provinces would disagree. The question is what does frustrating the provinces asking for fairness via a EEE senate for the next few decades do for the long-term prospects for this current confederation?

And I agree that a good constitution does not need to be amended at regular intervals. Clearly the current Canadian constitution is not a good one. Putting the EEE in place would go a very long way to making it a good one. (removing the Trudeau-myopic Equalization, Multiculturalism items and adding in property rights would be a good idea too)

WSAM:

Spain has a little problem with the Basques and thus hasn't found a solution to the problem.

"Why would Ontario, for example, agree to anything which wasn’t in its interest? Like a triple E senate."

For the same reason why NY and Virginia (it was a 'big' state at the time) did it way back when in Philadelphia - because it was in their long-term interests. They saw it as being key to keeping the union durable - in fact it they hadn't voted in favour, the smaller states would have literally walked out the doors of independence hall . Apparently, Ben Franklin had to block the door as they were in the process of doing just that after the large states had voted against a triple E senate. After an impassioned speech from Franklin, the large states and the small states agreed to re-vote and the vote in favour was unanimous.

Shane:

Subury, via the nickel mines ,(and much of northern Ontario of the decades) has seen large royalty and income tax payments go to the provincial coffers where it has been spent mostly in TO and the rest of urban ON. If Sudbury was a net drag on the urban areas of ON it would never have been built.

...

I should make one thing clear: If the constitution was re-opened for the purposes of creating a EEE, I have no problem with also at the same time amalgamating some of the smaller provinces and dividing-up the larger ones in part to recognize some of the size differences and realize some efficiencies. Making the HOC a true rep by pop house would largely achieve the same result.

Dividing up Que into three or more parts would go along way to quelling the nationalist sentiments of the Quebecois within that province.

I also think it is a good idea - one that has been discussed in AB gov't circles - to create a EEE senate in many of the provinces for the same reasons that it makes sense to do it federally.

...

As a footnote - the creation of the US EEE senate in 1787 is actually known as the "Great Compromise". the US would not have existed had the compromise been made. It's ironic that Canada - a country that holds as one of its identifying myths is its ability to compromise can't do the same.

29/5/07 5:23 PM  
Gord Tulk:

WSAM:

"You wouldn’t expect Alberta to agree to something which wasn’t in its interest?"

Alberta signed the 1980 constitution that enshrined equalization and not property rights - two things that were and are not in AB's short-term interest. It also aquiesced in the last federal budget to a 10 province formula and 50% inclusion of non-renewable resource revenues when calculating equalization transfers.

29/5/07 5:31 PM  
KRB:

Gord, don't know where you got the idea that I was against opening up the Constitution. I want to open it up. What I don't want is to be opening it up all the time. Deal with the problem, and have it able to adapt to future changes.

Good luck trying to break Quebec up into three parts!!! It would be politically impossible.

But if you structured a future Senate formula such that it would confer greater representation on an amalgamated Atlantic province (former NL, NS, NB, PEI), rather than less, as in your model, then perhaps they would take that step that was the main impetus for the first Charlottetown conference.

29/5/07 5:42 PM  
gord tulk:

KRB:

three latin words: Quid pro quo

ON and Que need to think "Great Compromise".

One day Que is going to realizre that their Cleavon Little "nobody move or the nigger gets it!!routine (from Blazing Saddles) isn't going to work forever. Dividing Que into three Quebecois dominated provinces under a EEE would actually give the Quebecois nation more power on the federal scene not less.

29/5/07 10:19 PM  
Quebecois Separatiste:

gord tulk: What are you smoking?

Quebec is indivisible. That's one of the fundamental laws of physics that rules the universe.

29/5/07 10:32 PM  
Anonymous:

LOL, yeah that Senate sure worked to keep the peace. Ever hear of the civil war? Of course, even then it still took a century before the US Senate could stop blocking equality of US citizens. Funny how often this "states rights" BS is used to trump individual rights. Like one person one vote. Good enough for the Conservative party, too good for Canada!

29/5/07 11:02 PM  
Gord Tulk:

Anonymous:

That the senate was EEE had nil to do with the civil war. It was a rupture caused by a debate over whether new states would "free" or "Slave" states.

To argue that the senate slowed the completion of equal rights for non-whites is correct. If it had happened any faster there more than likely would have been a second secession.

...

"Like one person one vote. Good enough for the Conservative party, too good for Canada!" The conservative party uses a EEE-like method to approve policy. One member one vote is used only to elect leaders (and MPs).

And the leader vote process is essentially a ranked or preferential ballot process - something that I am in favour of in general elections.

...

BTW, the US federal college system that is used to elect the president is sort of a hybrid between 'first past the post' and 'rep by pop'. Each state has a number of votes based on its relative population (rep by pop) but all of the votes for a particular state go to the candidate who gets the most votes (first past the post) The impact of this is to encourage candidates to campaign in states that are border-line rep/dem rather than in the states that have the most population. Not sure if that's a good thing. I see strengths in both the pro and con - it's a country where you actually get to vote for the nation's leader - certainly some appeal to that idea.

30/5/07 12:05 AM  
KRB:

CPC leadership races are not one-member, one-vote. They're weighted by riding. 10,000 members in Calgary Centre have the same clout as 100 members in Bourassa.

As for the US electoral college system, the 435 number for representatives is not fixed in stone. It could be 1000 or 4350, through an act of Congress. Moving to a higher number would of course give more weight to the bigger states (CA, TX, NY, etc.) than your Wyoming's, which have the minimum (3 - 1 congressional rep, 2 senators).

Also, some states (e.g. Maine) do not give all the state's electoral votes to the statewide winner. The statewide winner gets the 2 senatorial votes, but then the respective winner in each of Maine's 2 districts takes the vote there. So you can have a 4-0 score, or a 3-1 (or a 2-1-1 if there was a 3rd candidate).

30/5/07 10:17 AM  
Asarochester:

Hey Separatiste - why stop at Quebec? Certainly an independent Quebec would have historic rights over all the territories of New France prior to 1759. The first act of your new nation should be to launch a revanchist war of conquest for Ontario, Labrador and about 25 U.S. States... Louis XIV would expect no less!

31/5/07 12:39 AM  
Anonymous:

Canada's seat distribution has, no matter how bad the politicking, always reflected two principles: roughly equal representation by population AND a little extra help for the weaker regions. Andrew wants to jettison one without debate or consultation.

Of course these two principles have been at work for longer than Andrew has been around. What is the trigger that makes now the time for the revolution? Harper has tweaked the formula toward GREATER fairness and clearer adherence to principle.

I agree with earlier posts that the best and most transparent way to achieve both principles is to have an EEE senate and a pure rep-by-pop house. Until that day, the existing balance of principles is a non-negotiable condition of confederation.
-Pete E

31/5/07 2:35 AM  
KRB:

Can someone answer me this? For the seat projections that accompanied this announcement, is there a link to the pop'n projections used?

If Ontario were to get another 8-10 seats above what they'd already get, wouldn't that throw Quebec's seat-share out of whack?

31/5/07 10:29 AM  
KRB:

And AC, it's incorrect to say that Mulroney made the situation "much worse" in 1985. Are you saying you liked Trudeau's 1974 amalgam formula? That was the worst one yet!

If you had said that he entrenched many of the worst elements of the formula in place at the time he changed it, that'd be correct.

31/5/07 10:36 AM  
Steve L.:

hey guys guess what's the most exciting political news on the mill while we were boiling away our spinal fluids on minor parliamentary seat distribution issues?

that's right! time for another preemptive strike!

if the Quebec government falls tomorrow, what will Andrew Coyne's next column be?

1. Everyone is a Separatist! Jean Charest is wooing the PQ and the ADQ must shoulder 99.999% of the blame for forcing poor Charest to work with the separatists! everyone to arms! or else Canada is doomed! oh and don't tell me that the ADQ was recently slammed by Charest for caving in to the rest of Canada, because i'm a nationally syndicated columnist and i will just ignore you.

2. Another Quebec Election will Hurt the Conservatives! (i don't think this is an outlandish contention to make, actually. if anyone is going to say this, Andrew Coyne will probably be one of the first)

3. Where Does the ADQ Stand? first they wanted to use the federal transfers for schools and hospitals, now they want to use it for debt repayment! how are we to know what they will actually do if they form government? (i don't think this is an unreasonable criticism either, but i do expect Andrew Coyne to spin it into something resembling "the ADQ is even more separatist than the PQ!")

on a more serious note, i do think that it's best if the Quebec government doesn't fall tomorrow. just wanted to make that clear.

31/5/07 4:21 PM  
Anonymous:

Scrap the whole system and make potential MPP's compete in a full-contact kick boxing match to go to Ottawa!

31/5/07 5:01 PM  
meany:

Gord, I agree a EEE Senate may fix a LOT of Canada's problems, but how could this possibly be sold to Quebec? This province thinks it deserves the same number of representatives as the other 26 million Canadian's do, discussions on an equal "nation" to "nation" basis, and you think we'll get them to agree to taking, say, 10 senators, to go along with PEI's 10 senators? I think we need to move on from this EEE thing because it seems to be a total non-starter. Frankly I'm shocked we got them to agree to it in the Charlottetown Accord, even with that double majority francophone thinger.

31/5/07 7:03 PM  
asarochester:

Sometimes I envy the Fathers of Confederation who had a clean slate. Maybe Canada should disslove a la Yugoslavia (without the ugly civil war) and then realize we were better off all together. We could hold another constitutional conference in Charlottetown (or maybe somewhere in Manitoba) and start from scratch. I'd say a bicameral republic, but different from the US, and still in the Commonwealth.

31/5/07 9:14 PM  
Gord Tulk:

meany:

7/50 is all that is required If i recall. What needs to happen is for On to realize that's it's long-term interests lie in supporting the western provinces than in being Qc's bitch.

31/5/07 9:39 PM  
Anonymous:

It is not in Ontario's interests to be raped by western provinces more than they are already. See farm welfare. Another 3? 4? billion since the hicks came marching in? Even the anti-western liberals shoveled buckets full of cash Ralphs way over mad cow. The result? More of the same from the whiny whiny west.

1/6/07 12:33 AM  
Meany:

Gord,
In theory, yes. I would agree that Ontario's best interests are probably served in aligning itself with the Western provinces. However, would it serve Ontario's interests to see the country ripped apart? Let's indulge in this EEE Senate idea: To get support of Ontario as well as the smaller provinces, we do EEE Senate amendment, along with an amendment to make the House PURE 100% rep by pop, no more regional gerrymandering. The result: Quebec massively loses influence in the Senate, Quebec massively loses influence in the House, therefore, Quebec massively LOSES it. Presumably, such an amendment would be passed without support from Quebec, so BC+AB+ON gets the 50% requirement, and we'll pull in the small provinces for the 7 requirement (who will no doubt enjoy the 10% influence in the Senate without being close to 10% of population). Quebec's response will be outrage, venom, flashbacks to 1982, and a call for another referendum. This is in Ontario's interests? No way.
This country is sadly paralyzed because we have a gun to our heads. Either we need to pretend it's not there and get on with doing what we need to do and dare them to pull the trigger, or continue to sit here, paralyzed in fear. It's quite obvious that we have chosen the latter, and will continue to do so in the near future.

1/6/07 3:02 AM  
Gord Tulk:

anonymous:

you must be kidding. AB has sent 250 billion and counting in equalization and EI overpayments east since 1980. The most subsidized farme sector on earth os the supply managed dairy poultry sectors - over two thirds of which is in ON and QC and recieves, by those boards own numbers 15 BB a year in imputed subsidies. The CDN trade balance is 46 BB (japan's is only 94). Alberta eports 80 BB in oil and Gas - it is Canada's trade surplus.

Meany: what ON should be concerned about it AB, SK and BC exiting stage left from confederation (see points above). Carbon Taxes, regulation (including long gun registration), intransigence on electing and equalizing the senate etc. are weakening the ties that bind already.

1/6/07 9:28 AM  
Meany:

Gord,

AB, SK, and BC aren't going anywhere, and if they did, it wouldn't be over the freakin gun registry. Think your going to get BC to SEPERATE due to the GUN REGISTRY? Come on, stop talking crazy. Seperation movements are not borne out of gun registries. Short of another massive Trudeau-esque nationalizing raid on the Alberta industry, costing everyone their homes and livelihoods, Alberta isn't going to seperate. Besides, isn't Alberta's population growing at 3% a year or so, with the vast majority of those migrants coming from other Canadian provinces? Not exactly the right conditions to launch a Parti Albertois.

1/6/07 8:30 PM  
gord Tulk:

Meany:

No, the gun registry isn't going to be the trigger - more like part of the gunpowder. And it won't take a massive NEP either.

If, for instance, the current addition of seats in the HOC was reversed to placate Quebec, or say, the Van Doos were to take casualties when they rotate into Kandahar in August and then are quickly rotated out so that the gov't is shown to be prepared to sacrifice non-quebecois lives for freedom but not pacifist quebecois lives, then we will witness the disintegration of the CP along the same lines as as the PC's did under Mulroney.

Only this time around the party what propagates from the splinter will not be a "take back canada" - "the west wants in" party, but rather a "West wants out" party.

In less than six months the most right wing gov't in canada will be elected in SK - the SK party - an unreformed reform party. In AB the provincial PC's are already in a death spiral with their vote about to be split by a Bronconnier-led (sp?) Liberal party on the left and by a Ted Morton-led Alberta Alliance party in the right.

Long-term the policy of a another massive Trudeau-esque nationalizing raid is already in place - the inclusion of royalties in the equalization formula at 50%. As the Tarsands revenues mushroom over the next ten years we could see transfers from the west to the east go from 12 BB to 36 billion. I can tell you right now that will not happen.

The question is: "what will?"

1/6/07 10:36 PM  
Jason Hallett:

"In less than six monhs the most right wing gov't in Canada will be elected -- the SK Party -- an unreformed Reform Party."

As a SK resident, I'll have to ask you to justify that comment; Brad Wall has always seemed to me to be one of those conservatives petrified by the thought of being called "conservative."

2/6/07 9:41 PM  
KRB:

Ted Morton leads the Alberta Alliance? Sorry, missed this bit of news.

Is that a prediction, or a prophecy?

5/6/07 2:59 PM  
ron in kelowna:

Some countries have too much history.

Canada has too much geography.

I think Andrew is correct. But there is more to it.

Canada is made up of land and people. Is is nothing without one or the other. That is obvious.

The more populous regions of the country have to have more representation.

But the land in the other regions also has to have representation. (Nothing without the land.)

Do the people in the populous regions care if all the land stays ? If not, then it is all over.

As previous commenters noted, other countries' politicians made huge concesions when performing the initial nation building.

I wonder if Canada has not been poisoned beyond hope.

After all, do political parties ever fix anything ? Or are just in it for the re-election ?

Does the media ever try to help a process ? Help anything ? Or just try to create and promote conflict ? Sh** disturbers. To sell paper.

In 2007 Canada has two strikes.

5/6/07 11:14 PM  
Ali Akbar:

It's not Alberta that is a have province, its calgary and the oil sands. As a native Albertan, I'm sick of cow-farming rural wingnuts grabbing Calgary's money.

Let Redmonton go on its own, Calgary on its own, and the rural hicks on its own. I'd be happy to pay equalization to the impoverished, subsidy loving rural farmers that suck away Calgary's prosperity, so long as I didn't have to share a province with them.

Free Calgary Now!

6/6/07 12:36 PM