The Liberals have worse problems than Dion
That the Liberals did exceptionally poorly is true enough, but it’s not news. Their showing in all three ridings was not materially different than it was in 2006; indeed, they increased their share of the vote, meagre as it was, in Roberval-Lac-St.-Jean. Even in “fortress” Outremont, the Liberals’ grip has been slipping for some years now. The 29% they posted last night is bad, but it had already fallen to 35% under Jean Lapierre, Paul Martin’s Quebec lieutenant -- less than half the numbers Marc Lalonde used to put up without getting out of bed.
Most of the damage, in other words, had already been done, the legacy of sponsorships, years of Liberal infighting, and the dilution of the party’s federalist identity under Martin. The worst that can be said of Stéphane Dion is that he has not, in the space of 10 months, turned things around.
That the Liberals lost Outremont has less to do with the decline in their own vote than a massive surge in support for the NDP. Aready a force in the riding, the NDP took votes from all three of its rivals. And while that is a tribute to the extraordinary personal popularity of its candidate, former provincial Environment minister Thomas Mulcair, his victory has even more to do with the collapse of the Bloc.
There is no other word for it. The Bloc didn’t just give up nearly two-thirds of its vote in Outremont, contributing fully 18 of the 30 points the NDP gained. It also dropped 18 points in Roberval, and 14 points in St.-Hyacinthe-Bagot. All told, the BQ saw two-fifths of its vote go up in smoke last night, the only party to suffer a decline in all three ridings.
That’s the only demonstrable trend in the results. An NDP breakthrough? Tell it to Alphonsus (Fonse) Faour. In a 1978 by-election in the riding of Humber-St. George’s-St. Barbe, Mr. Faour became the NDP’s first elected MP from Newfoundland. He held on through the 1979 election, but was crushed by the Liberals’ Brian Tobin in 1980. Apart from another by-election win in 1987, the party has not elected an MP from the province since.
Or tell it to Phil Edmonston. The well-known consumer advocate won another by-election for the NDP in the Quebec riding of Chambly in 1990. That “historic breakthrough” lasted until the next election. But perhaps Mr. Mulcair has set the pattern for future success. All the NDP has to do to win in Quebec is to run wildly popular former Liberal cabinet ministers who have recently resigned on questions of principle (the privatization of Mount Orford) and are descendants of former premiers (Honoré Mercier, his great-grandfather), in ridings with a large Jewish population where the Liberal candidate has a reputation for being anti-Israel.
As for the Tories, yes, they have some reason to crow. The Afghanistan issue that was sure to doom them in Quebec turns out not to have been quite such a liability as all that. (Remember Gilles Duceppe’s ultimatum over next month’s Throne Speech -- pull the troops or face defeat? I don’t imagine we’ll be hearing much of that any more.) But if the Tories were the beneficiaries of the Bloc’s collapse in rural Quebec, they remain shut out of Montreal. Indeed, the Conservative vote fell in Outremont, and by a larger amount, proportionately, than the Liberals’.
That strikes me as less about Quebec than the country as a whole: the Liberals are in trouble everywhere in rural Canada, the Conservatives no less so in the major urban centres. The Tories have time now to work on their weak points: after this, the Bloc will be doing backflips to avoid bringing them down. The Liberals would do well to use the next twelve to eighteen months to the same purpose. For what it’s worth, I would advise:
Forget about dumping your leader; your problems are far worse than that. For that matter, forget any dreams you might have of reclaiming Quebec, as of old. Outside Montreal it is lost to you, and will be for years to come. Concentrate on holding onto the island, your federalist base. Instead, look for growth in the rest of the country, notably Ontario and the West, where population, money and power are rapidly shifting.
What does that mean, concretely? The Conservatives will shortly try to consolidate their gains in Quebec with further sops to nationalist opinion: the Throne Speech will reportedly promise to legislate formal restrictions on the federal spending power. The Liberals cannot win such a bidding contest, and shouldn’t try. Let there be at least one party standing up for the federation.
To woo the West, talk to it in the language of the old Reform party. Get serious about democratic reform and lower taxes, issues the Conservatives once owned but threw away. Above all, start putting together a coherent platform, rather than taking in every stray individual or interest with a grievance against the government. Get the big things right, and no one will notice Mr. Dion’s accent.
9/19/2007
