They must be playing a very deep game, since to the untrained eye it would appear the governments the sophisticated Quebec electorate kept voting into office have put the province, not to say the country, through 40 years of hell. Not only have they wasted the best minds of two generations parsing the differences between special status, sovereignty- association, a confederal union, and a political and economic superstructure, but in the process they have turned Quebec into the most overtaxed, overindebted, overgoverned jurisdiction in North America.

But everyone learns in time, and it appears the sophisticated Quebec electorate has finally wised up. The seismic shift in Monday's election is measured not so much by the sweeping majority given Jean Charest's Liberals as it is by the thumping administered to Bernard Landry and the Parti Quebecois. There was nothing terribly unexpected in this -- the separatists' fortunes have been in decline for the past eight years, through two federal elections and one provincial -- but even the longest slide ends with a bump. At 33% of the popular vote, the PQ turned in its worst showing since 1973, the second election it contested. And this, with all the advantages of a strong economy, an unloved opposition leader, and a platform full of goodies. It is a historic rejection.

Another enduring cliche, however, is that the sovereigntists always win. Even if they lose they win. So expect the usual warnings that separatism is not dead, that indeed the situation is more perilous than ever. "Under pressure from Quebec nationalists to demonstrate that federalism can respond to a Quebec agenda," writes Graham Fraser in the Toronto Star, "Charest is likely to challenge [the] status quo in a way that Landry never could." The Montreal Gazette's Don McPherson agrees. "The PQ's defeat is the best thing that could have happened to the sovereignty movement at this point," he writes.

Excuse me? Let's review what just happened. Two thirds of the electorate voted for parties that promised them, frankly and unashamedly, the status quo. The Liberals ran on the most unambiguously federalist platform since Adelard Godbout, while the ADQ promised not to mention the word sovereignty for the next 10 years. The PQ, for their part, only averted total collapse by pledging not to hold a referendum until the public demanded one, i.e. never. Mr.

Landry went so far as to substitute a "confederal union" for independence in the party platform. But just by going near the subject he lost votes.

Mr. Charest, on the other hand, talked about everything but the constitution, combining a vague promise to fix the health care system with a concrete pledge to cut taxes by 27% over five years. It was he who drew the appropriate lesson from last year's ADQ boom, which was not simply that Quebecers wanted "change," but change of a specific kind: less government. Adroitly stealing the ADQ's platform (or was it Mike Harris's?) he was able to turn the Liberals long experience in government into an advantage, with the crafty slogan: "We're Ready." Quebecers who wanted change did not have to risk the untried ADQ.

But while the ADQ fell short of expectations, the fact remains that in two elections it has tripled its popular vote. While the PQ spends the next six months tearing itself apart, the ADQ will continue to define the agenda. And just over the horizon are two events that will further confound the PQ. One, the federal election, in which Paul Martin's Liberals can be expected to rout the divided, directionless Bloc Quebecois. And two, assuming Mr. Charest keeps a key election promise, reform of Quebec's electoral system on proportional representation lines. Not only will that be a boon to small parties like the ADQ, but it will encourage the PQ's fractious followers to split into little shards of doctrinal purity.

Meanwhile, time marches on. By the next election, likely in 2007, it will have been 25 years since the Night of the Long Knives, nearly half a century since the Quiet Revolution. The events that fed nationalist passions will have receded from memory, as the last of the PQ's warhorses retire and die. The only thing that could possibly give life to the PQ would be if Mr. Charest were to embark upon some foolish nationalist crusade, a la Meech Lake. But I somehow think the man who promised on election night to "make Canada a stronger country" is not too worried about proving his nationalist cojones. And what's the upside? He's got a packed agenda as it is. Why would he want to take on an issue that can only play to the Pequistes' advantage?

Mr. Charest has allowed himself to be blown off course in the past, jettisoning whole platforms under pressure, and lost. This time, he stayed true, and won. Either he's changed, or the voters have, but either way, there's little chance of the constitutional peace being disturbed.